Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

03/09/2019
Joel Bartilotta

FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA picks for 3/10/19

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Point guard

Elfrid PaytonElfrid Payton FD - $6700 DK - $5800
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 35.04 DK - 35.33

Payton is one of the best values on the board, as he should have a huge role with Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis potentially missing this game. Getting an expanded role from a stat-stuffer like this is all you can ask for, as he should be closer to $7,000 in this sort of circumstance. Since returning from injury nine games ago, Payton has scored at least 27 DK points in all but one of those outings. That's the sort of reliability we've become accustomed to with Payton, as he's averaging more than 30 fantasy points per game for the season, if you take out the three games he got injured. That consistency becomes even more attractive in this tasty matchup, with the Hawks allowing the most fantasy points in the league to opposing point guards while playing at the fastest pace in the NBA.

Frank JacksonFrank Jackson FD - $4800 DK - $4200
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 30.01 DK - 31.14

With Holiday out for a week, Jackson should continue to start in his absence. In the first start without Holiday on Friday, Jackson collected 27 fantasy points in 37 minutes. Any player in this price range playing 37 minutes is worth a shot, especially considering Holiday and Davis may be out. That's close to 75 minutes and 40 shots out of the lineup, as Jackson will be one of the major beneficiaries to this team's tanking. That's evident by the fact that Jackson is posting a 21.2 percent usage rate with those two sidelined, as he's a near guarantee for 25 minutes and 10 shots. The icing on the cake is the matchup though, with Atlanta allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards. The price is up, as well it should be after he was 60%+ owned in his last start, but he's still worth paying for.

Also consider:
Kyle LowryKyle Lowry FD - $8500 DK - $7600
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 42.33 DK - 43.65

Lowry is a bonus pick for us on this slate, as he becomes one of the best values with Kawhi Leonard sitting out. With Leonard off the floor, Lowry is averaging 1.3 DK points per minute while leading the team with a 25 percent usage rate. That boost in usage looks even better when you consider Lowry's recent form, as he's averaging 35.2 DK points per game since returning from injury on January 6.

Shooting Guard

James HardenJames Harden FD - $12200 DK - $11300
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 65.06 DK - 67.35

It's strange to say that Harden is undervalued at this point but his price has dropped to a tempting number. Harden was actually in the $13,000-range just a few weeks ago, as these sites have lowered his price since Chris Paul's return. That really doesn't make much sense though, as Harden is averaging 62 DK points per game across his last five fixtures. The assists have been down, but he's shooting as much as ever. The streak extends much longer than that too, with Harden providing 64 fantasy points per game across his last 38 outings. That sort of production is hard to overlook, as he should remain in the $13,000-range. Harden has had great luck against the Mavs this season as well, averaging 65.6 fantasy points per game in three meetings with the Mavericks this season.

Terrence RossTerrence Ross FD - $5200 DK - $4800
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 25.33 DK - 26.14

Ross is quietly throwing his hat in the ring for a Sixth Man of the Year Award, as he's been one of the major reasons why Orlando is back in playoff contention. Over his last 25 games, Ross has scored at least 23 DK points in 20 of those outings, as he's scored at least 32 fantasy points in four of his last six fixtures. That means there's about an 80 percent chance he'll reach 5X value, as that's hard to omit from a player who has such a high upside. Memphis is not a defense to fear either, as they allow the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season.

Also consider:
Kent Bazemore is a great value south of $6,000, as he should exploit a Pelicans defense who ranks fifth in pace and 27th in total defense.

 

Small Forward

Kevin DurantKevin Durant FD - $10000 DK - $9200
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 50.01 DK - 50.96

Durant is probably the most consistent option on this slate, as he has at least 27 fantasy points in all but one game this season. That reliability becomes even more intriguing in a matchup like this, with Phoenix owning a 26th OPRK against opposing small forwards according to DraftKings. Durant is playing well right now too, scoring at least 45 DK points in three of his last four games. The price has come up a bit on the Warriors' star, but frankl Durant should be a five-figure player on every slate, especially against a putrid Suns defense.

.
Rudy GayRudy Gay FD - $6500 DK - $5900
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 31.81 DK - 32

With San Antonio facing a Milwaukee team with a bunch of lengthy wings, Gay should be asked to play more than usual here. What's really encouraging is the fact that he got a start in the teams most recent win, as he's scored at least 32 DraftKings points in three-straight games. That makes Gay a heck of a value in the $6,000-range, as he played 30 minutes in the first meeting with the Bucks. He is a guy that needs to be monitored though, as he enters this matchup questionable because of an illness.

Also consider:

If Gay ends up sitting out, Davis Bertans pops up very highly in our projections with an expanded role.

 

Power Forward

Julius RandleJulius Randle FD - $9100 DK - $8500
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 50.87 DK - 53.26

With Anthony Davis' role in flux from here on out, we have to always look at Randle as long as he remains below $10,000. Over his last 20 games, Randle is averaging 39.2 DK points per outing. That production should continue for the remainder of the season, as Holiday and Davis could miss most of it. When those two are off the floor, Randle is averaging 1.5 DraftKings points-per minute while leading the team with a 33 percent usage rate. All that is enough incentive to use Randle but the matchup is equally as engaging. Not only does Atlanta play at the fastest pace in the league, they also rank dead-last in total defense.

Draymond GreenDraymond Green FD - $6900 DK - $5800
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 38.2 DK - 37.24

Green is a fantastic value on DraftKings, as we have him projected to approach 7X value at this price tag. The main reason why is this superb matchup, with Phoenix allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. In addition, the Suns currently rank 28th in points allowed and 29th in defensive efficiency. Those ugly defensive numbers should benefit a stat-stuffer like Green, as he's averaging nearly a fantasy points-per minute in three games against them this season. Green has established a nice floor as well, scoring at least 22 DK points in 35 of his last 37 games in total. There's obviously some blowout risk, but the position is pretty light today, and I think you can weather it.

Also consider:
Blake Griffin looked great in the time he was on the court against Chicago just last game, but his fantasy totals suffered due to a trip to the locker room. He's looking healthy now, and is once again playable against a Chicago Bulls defense who owns the worst efficiency rating in the league.

And obviously, if you are playing the afternoon slate, Pascal Siakam will be chalk with Kawhi Leonard out.

 

Center

Alex LenAlex Len FD - $4700 DK - $5600
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 32.94 DK - 33.06
Len will continue to be a great value as long as Dewayne Dedmon is sidelined, as he's slid right into starting center duties in his absence. While he has been inconsistent, it's hard not to get excited about his upside. In fact, Len has at least 46 DK points in two of his last five games while scoring at least 22 fantasy points in four of those outings. That's all you can ask for from a player in the $5,000-range, as he should abuse a New Orleans team who ranks 27th in total defense.

Andre DrummondAndre Drummond FD - $10400 DK - $12600
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 55.28 DK - 55.01

While you can only use Drummond in the early slate for Sunday's games, he's by far my favorite high-end option. The main reason is the matchup, as he faces a Bulls team who allows the most fantasy points in the league to opposing centers. That was clear on Friday when Drummond collected 20 points, 24 rebounds, two assists, three steals and two blocks. In three games against Chicago this season, Drummond is averaging 51 DK points per outing. That high upside comes from a player who's extremely hot too, with Drummond averaging 53 fantasy points per game across his last 17 fixtures.

Also consider:
Myles Turner continues to be undervalued on both sites, as he could face a weak Philly front line with players like Amir Johnson, Mike Scott and Jonah Bolden.

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image sources

  • AP_190605106247951: apimages

1 Visitor Comment

  1. I see you have Alex Len project in at 7x$ Again today. Hopefully, eventually you will be correct projecting such a high output. You had the same projection yesterday and he fell Way short. But then again so did Damian Lillard, Josh Hart, Gordon Hayward, and Marvin Williams. I sure hope the rest of yesterday‘s picks were better. I am sure it sounds like I’m picking on you and I guess i am. I realize you cannot predict the future but since this article is an advertisement for your “projection system” I would expect more. I read your article for help and the last couple of months your information has hurt more than helped. I am sure there are others who wil ldisagree with what I’m saying. I am only one man and I am giving you my honest opinion. I just wish you would do better. Good luck guys

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