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Hockey Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

03/12/2019
Chris Durell

Daily Fantasy Hockey Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 3/12/19

We are now less than a month away from the end of the regular season and playoff races are heating up putting emphasis on every shift from here on out......for most teams. Tuesday night in the NHL brings us a big eight-game slate with the feature matchup between Alex Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals and Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins. Let's jump in and take a look at some of the top goalies, teams, and situations to target and then be sure to check out our projection system and lineup optimizer.

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GOALIE

Mike SmithMike Smith FD - $7900 DK - $8400
Opponent - NJ
Proj Pts FD - 23.14 DK - 5.79
David RittichDavid Rittich FD -
$8000 DK - $8400
Opponent - NJ
Proj Pts FD - 21.75 DK - 5.44

The Flames are still waiting for one of these goalies to take the rein's as the #1 guy and at this point, it is unclear who will get the start on Tuesday so I will list both. Both guys have been merely average lately with Rittich having the edge in save %(.911) on the season. Whoever gets the starts tonight gets a terrific opportunity to add their numbers as the Flames are huge -385 favorites against a struggling Devils team that has dropped six straight while scoring just seven goals and for the season, they own a league-worst 8-23-3 road record and rank 25th in road offense. All things considered, the Flames goalies are at the top of the list in all formats tonight.

Jordan BinningtonJordan Binnington FD - $8800 DK - $7800
Opponent - ARI
Proj Pts FD - 18.49 DK - 4.62

Binnington has been one of the best stories in the league this season as he comes into tonight with 16-3-1 record since being called up in the middle of December. He and the Blues are -200 home favorites tonight and the only reason he comes in as my second option tonight is the matchup. Against the Coyotes, you say? That's right, Arizona has been terrific lately winning eight of their last 10 games and entered last night just one game out of a wildcard spot in the Western Conference playoff picture. The good news for Binnington and the Blues who are holding on to a four-point lead for the #3 seed in the Central is that the Coyotes are playing on a back to back on the road and a third game in four nights. For cash games, I lean the Flames goalie on FanDuel but on DraftKings, Binnington is most definitely in play if you need the $600 savings.

Also consider Carey Price(MON) as a lower owned GPP play coming off his worst start of the season(8 GA) but gets a plus matchup at home against a Red Wings team without Dylan Larkin who is out with an injury

Calgary Flames

Moneyline - CGY(-385)
Total - 6.5
Team Projection - 4.8

The Flames currently sit at the top of the Pacific Division and #1 in the Western Conference but have the San Jose Sharks nipping on their heels down the stretch(down one point and currently up 1-0 on Monday) putting emphasis on every single game. They will get a terrific shot at adding to their win column tonight facing a Devils team who has fully entered the suck for Hughes lottery sweepstakes. They have dropped six straight games and now own a league-worst 8-23-3 road record while ranking 29t hin road defense. Fire up the Flames(pun not intended).

Mikael BacklundMikael Backlund FD - $5500 DK - $5800
Opponent - NJ
Proj Pts FD - 13.13 DK - 3.65
Matthew TkachukMatthew Tkachuk FD -
$5600 DK - $6100
Opponent - NJ
Proj Pts FD - 11.35 DK - 3.35
Johnny GaudreauJohnny Gaudreau FD -
$7300 DK - $6700
Opponent - NJ
Proj Pts FD - 13.78 DK - 4.03
Travis HamonicTravis Hamonic FD -
$4400 DK - $5100
Opponent - NJ
Proj Pts FD - 10.75 DK - 3.16

For cash games, I love the two-man stack of Backlund and Tkachuk on the second line as they are not only cheaper than the top line but have also been carrying the offense lately. They had a big game against Vegas, Backlund with three points after going three straight without getting a point. He also provides a high PTS/$ floor with 32 shots over his last 10 games. Tkachuk also had a big game against Vegas with a hat trick and four points and has 27 shots over his last 10 games. For GPP's, I like turning to the top line, specifically Johnny Hockey who, despite his struggles lately, is having a career year with 84 points(27 on the powerplay). On defense, it is hard not to like Travis Hamonic tonight as he comes cheap, especially on FanDuel and has provided a high floor lately with four points, 22 shots, and 26 blocks over his last 10 games for an average of 3.5 DraftKings/11.5 FanDuel points per game.

Dallas Stars

Moneyline - DAL(-132)
Total - 5.5
Team Projection - 2.9

Dallas isn't a team I like full stacking in GPP formats, especially on the road where they rank 29th on offense ut for cash games, they have a couple of options who make a ton of sense. They also get a boost tonight facing a Sabres team that has fallen off the map lately losing four straight and 10 of their last 12 games while giving up four or more goals eight times during that stretch. They will also be without star player Jack Eichel for this game as he will be serving a suspension.

Tyler SeguinTyler Seguin FD - $7700 DK - $7300
Opponent - BUF
Proj Pts FD - 16.16 DK - 4.73
Alexander RadulovAlexander Radulov FD -
$6500 DK - $7300
Opponent - BUF
Proj Pts FD - 15.89 DK - 4.64

Whenever targeting the Stars offense it starts at the top with Tyler Seguin who checks every box. He started off slow this season but since being called out by the Stars CEO, Seguin has averaged a point per game and four shots per game and that high floor is backed up by an elite 11.3 shots/60 and 18.4 iCorsi/60 on the season. Part of the issue this season has been injuries which include Alexander Radulov who has missed 12 games but when in the lineup, he has provided a ton of value. Over his last 10 games, he has tallied nine points with 31 shots on goal while averaging just under 20 minutes of ice-time.

Also consider John Klingberg and Esa Lindell as top tier and bottom tier options on defense

Pittsburgh Penguins

Moneyline - PIT(-139)
Total - 6.5
Team Projection - 3.8

Things can go either way in this matchup as they have played seven times since the start of the 2017-18 season, twice going over 10 combined goals but in the other five meetings, the teams have come in under the Vegas total. Tonight, I think we see some fireworks especially from the Penguins who come in having won three straight home games and rank Top 10 in home offense on the season while the Caps have not been nearly as good defensively on the road ranking 23rd.

Sidney CrosbySidney Crosby FD - $9300 DK - $7600
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 17.67 DK - 5.11
Jake GuentzelJake Guentzel FD -
$7700 DK - $6600
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 15.17 DK - 4.27
Jared McCannJared McCann FD -
$4900 DK - $4600
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 10.43 DK - 2.96

If you are paying up at the center position tonight, you can never really go wrong with Sidney Crosby. While he doesn't provide us with elite shot volume(8.3 shots/60 & 13.0 iCorsi/60), he makes up for it with his huge upside. He has also been playing some of his best hockey of the season lately with 30 points in 19 games since the start of February and has 68 points in 48 career games vs. the Caps. I love going complete line stack here as Jake Guentzel has taken his game to a new level this season with 65 points in 69 games skating alongside Sid the Kid. The third member of the top line has changed a ton this season but right now it is Jared McCann filling out the line and not only is he cheap on both sites but he is coming off a two goal game against the Bruins and has points in three of his last four.

 

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