Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA picks for 3/13/19
We now have less than a month to go in the regular season and that tends to lead to a lot of variance around certain teams, and by proxy, DFS lineups. Some teams are in the tank, some are really going for it and some seem annoyingly in between. But we've got you covered and have a six-game slate to dive into.
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With Kevin Durant (ankle) expected to miss this game, stacking Warriors is one of the best options out there. Curry is the start of our stack, as he'll run the show with Durant sidelined. That's evident by the fact that he's leading the team with a 39.5 percent usage rate with Durant sidelined while averaging 1.5 DK points per minute. That's absurd per-minute production from the most talented shooter in the league, as Curry is also averaging 50 DK points in two matchups with the Rockets this season. That's no surprise when you consider the fact that Houston allows the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.
Conley just took home Player of the Week honors last week, as he carried Memphis to a perfect 3-0 week. His numbers were ridiculous in that span, as Conley averaged 31.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, 7.7 assists and 1.3 steals per game. That actually extends a streak in which Conley has at least 43 fantasy points in five of his last six games, as he's obviously taken over for this diminished roster. That's evident by the fact that he's posting a usage rate north of 30 percent in that span while playing 34 minutes a game. Those are actually higher than his season-long numbers and he should continue that success in this brilliant matchup. Not only does Atlanta rank dead-last in total defense, but they also allow the most fantasy points in the league to opposing point guards.
Reggie Jackson is worth a shot in the $5,000-range, as he's been averaging 29 DK points per game since the end of January.
Mitchell is hard to fade when Ricky Rubio sits out, as he usually takes over starting point guard duties in his absence. With Rubio off the floor, Mitchell is posting a ridiculous 38 percent usage rate while averaging 1.3 DK points per minute. It really doesn't matter whether Rubio plays or not though, as Mitchell is averaging 44 DK points per game across his last 11 outings. That form is capped off by this tasty matchup, with Phoenix ranking 29th in defensive efficiency and 28th in points allowed while allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing PG's.
Klay Thompson FD - $8000 DK - $7200
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 39.19 DK - 40.24
Let's dig a little deeper into why we want to stack Warriors. It's all the usage that Durant leave behinds, as he's averaging 35 minutes and 19 shots a game while leading the team with a 29 percent usage rate. That's a ton of production that needs to be made up, as Thompson is one of the biggest beneficiaries. In fact, Thompson ranks second on the team with a 38.4 percent usage rate with Durant sidelined, as he averages 1.3 DK points per minute. It's a simple case of getting more shots for one of the best shooters in the world. The fact that Thompson is hot right now only adds to his intrigue, as he's averaging 37 DK points per game across his last 11 fixtures. That should be propitious considering he's averaging more than 35 fantasy points per game in three outings against the Rockets this season.
Joe Harris FD - $4500 DK - $4500
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 23.21 DK - 24.61
Harris is simply too reliable to be this cheap, as he should be in the $5,000-range on both sites. In fact, Harris has at least 17 DK points in 20 of his last 23 games in total, as he's averaging 23 fantasy points per game in that span. That alone is 5X value, as he could play even more here with Carroll (knee) expected to miss this game. Harris is not the sort of guy to win you a tournament but either he or McKinnie makes for a great lineup filler with so many great studs available. Not to mention, Oklahoma City allows the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season.
Alfonzo McKinnie FD - $3500 DK - $3100
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 20.57 DK - 21.14
McKinnie doesn't necessarily have a high upside but he's one of the best bets to reach 5X value on this slate. He's likely going to start for Durant and that alone makes him a good bet to play at least 25 minutes. Any player in this price range is worth a look if they're getting 25 minutes of action, as McKinnie has shown he can produce when given the time. In fact, McKinnie is averaging 0.9 DK points per minute this season, which would give him a 22-point projection in 25 minutes. That's approaching 7X value at this dirt-cheap price tag, as he also makes it much easier to get studs like Curry, Thompson, Vucevic and Conley into your lineup.
Joe Ingles gets an excellent matchup against the Suns here, as he should continue to provide good value.
Bobby Portis FD - $6900 DK - $6200
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 36.57 DK - 39.25
Portis has been a stud since entering the starting lineup and it's clear he's found a home in Washington. They're happy to feed him too, with Portis ranking second on the team with a 25.2 percent usage rate while averaging 1.2 DK points per minute. That's backed up by elite fantasy production, with Portis scoring at least 41 fantasy points in four of his last five games. That's the production of an $8,000 player, which makes Portis quite the value below $7,000 on both sites. Orlando is a matchup we want to exploit too, as they allow the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
Draymond Green FD - $6600 DK - $5900
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 34.6 DK - 34.05
Green is the final piece of our Golden State stack, as he should benefit a lot from Durant being off the floor, Not only will that make him shoot more, it will allow him to rebound and distribute much more easily. That's all you can ask for from someone with triple-double potential, as Green has seen his price drop with his recent lackluster form. That's what really makes Green an enticing option, as he should be closer to $8,000 with this uptick in usage and fantastic matchup. Houston currently ranks 21st in defensive efficiency and Green averaged 15.7 points, 10.7 rebounds and 9.7 assists in three games against them last season.
Derrick Favors should be closer to $7,000 on both sites, as he's quietly been a monster over the last month, averaging 32 fantasy points per game across his last 16 fixtures.
Nikola Vucevic FD - $10000 DK - $9200
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 51.49 DK - 53.01
Vucevic is always worth a look in any circumstance but especially when he gets a matchup like this. Not only does Washington allow the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing centers, but they also rank 29th in points allowed and 27th in defensive efficiency. That's clear by the fact that Vucevic is averaging 43.3 DK points per game in three outings against the Wizards this season, which is actually amazingly below his season average. That alone shows just how majestic of a season it's been for Vucevic, as he's averaging 49.6 DK points per game across his last nine fixtures and 47 fantasy points per game for the year.
Steven Adams FD - $6900 DK - $6300
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 34.41 DK - 34.98
Adams is simply undervalued on both sites, as he's really a $7,000 player. It's his recent form that's really attractive, with Adams averaging 33 fantasy points per game across his last 10 outings while scoring at least 23 DK points in each outing. That's right where our projections have him, as he should abuse this terrible Brooklyn frontcourt. In fact, the Nets allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season. That was obvious when Adams dropped 33 fantasy points in his one game against them this season.
Andre Drummond is averaging more 54 fantasy points per game since returning from injury a month ago and he could do that again against a small Miami team.
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- Stephen Curry: (AP Photo/Ben Margot)