FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA picks for 3/21/19
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Kemba Walker FD - $9300 DK - $8100
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 41.04 DK - 42.53 Welcome to Thursday NBA. I know most eyes will be far away from this slate and right onto March Madness, but I know there will be plenty of slackers that can’t help the NBA itch. We have a very solid 6-game slate on our hands with plenty of options at every position. We’ll kick things off in Charlotte, where the Hornets will host the Timberwolves. Kemba Walker draws a very friendly match-up with both Teague and Rose out, so he should take advantage before they end up switching Okogie onto him. We are hoping that eventually happens as it just means Kemba is going off. He hasn’t shot the ball well in the last couple games, but should turn that around against a Timberwolves team that allows the 9th most three-pointers with space. He has a floor well over 40 and a ceiling into the 60’s. Kemba Walker is still affordable on both sites and a phenomenal cash game and tournament play. Walker is a great option in all formats.
Tyler Johnson has already been announced as out for tonight's game against the Pistons, so De'Anthony Melton will grab another start at point guard. He flopped last game (10 FP) against the Bulls, but excelled in the same position the game before (31 FP). He now faces a Pistons team that ranks in the middle of the road against opposing point guards and doesn't mind picking up the pace with their opponent. The Suns will do their best to force their hand and Melton should not have any issue getting to at least a fantasy point per minute. He's extremely cheap on both sites and will demolish value if given closer to 30 minutes. He's as safe as can be at a point guard position that's not as plentiful as usual.
With Jeff Teague and Derrick Rose out, Tyus Jones can be locked in as one of the better value plays on the night. He’s been over 24 fantasy points in four of his last 5 games and flopped only when covered by Chris Paul. It’s fair to expect 28-33 minutes tonight against the Hornets and Kemba Walker, who present a much friendlier defensive match-up and team in general. Tyus Jones may not force his way into a permanent role, but he’s fine as a temporary piece that will hit value in the right spots. Tonight should be one of those.
Donovan Mitchell FD - $8800 DK - $8200
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 43.42 DK - 44.32
Mitchell dominated just last night against the Knicks in Madison Square Garden, but he only had to play 29 minutes as the Jazz had the game in the bag by halftime. They should have another relatively easy game tonight against a Hawks squad that won't put up much of a fight against the grizzly Jazz defense. Mitchell will still be available to play a full compliment of minutes and could get up to 35 if the game remains competitive. He's not very expensive on either site and is a noticeable salary step down from Doncic and Beal. He has the same exact upside in a fast-paced bout with a Hawks team that ranks dead last in the entire league against opposing point guards. I think Mitchell stays hot from last night and puts up 45+ fantasy points with ease in this one. He's a guy I will have 100% exposure to and I don't think the field will have nearly enough.
Josh Okogie FD - $4300 DK - $3900
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 21.48 DK - 21
With Rose and Teague both out, Tyus Jones isn't the only one benefiting. Josh Okogie has surpassed 30 minutes in back to back games and has taken full advantage with 34 and 32 fantasy points. He seems to always be involved and that shouldn't change against a Hornets squad that runs the floor and gives up plenty of peripherals. As long as he stays hot from behind the 3-point line, Okogie should hit value at around $4k everywhere. Shooting guard is subpar and Okogie is not only safe, but has the upside to 8x if he gets enough shots from the perimeter. He just did exactly that against Golden State and Houston. There are a lot of similar options at shooting guard and it'll be important to nail value with spread exposure. This is where you can get a real edge.
Joe Ingles FD - $6200 DK - $5800
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 29.35 DK - 29.84
Small forward is what some would consider a wasteland tonight. If we want more expensive options, we have Kevin Durant and Jabari Parker to pick from. Durant has been underwhelming and Parker is on the second leg of a back to back in which he played huge minutes. That leaves us with Joe Ingles, who’s extremely consistent and gets an ideal match-up against a Hawks team that doesn’t play defense and gives up the open three ball. He only played 24 minutes last night, but I think he gets closer to 30 tonight as long as the game isn't a blowout. Ingles is always effective when on the floor and it just comes down to this game staying somewhat competitive.
Harrison Barnes FD - $5400 DK - $5700
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 26.49 DK - 27.53
Unless you like Kevin Durant, small forward doesn’t have much opportunity cost. There are a ton of guys who are similarly priced and you’re relying on them making some distance between the others. Harrison Barnes, who’s impressed since coming over via trade, will face off with his former team. He shouldn’t have all that much trouble producing. He’s rarely going to erupt over 40 fantasy points, but he’s going to stay between 25-35 and will rarely be the reason you lose. The Mavericks rank 7th worst in all of the league against small forwards as well, which doesn't hurt. Barnes should be able to work himself into the 30s and is a nice value play across the board.
Mikal Bridges FD - $4900 DK - $4300
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 24.18 DK - 23.23
With T.J. Warren out, Mikal Bridges has played huge minutes. He's been over 37 minutes in three straight games and has done his best to get involved in the offense. He hasn't been the greatest in terms of fantasy output, but he's also been terrible from behind the line and that shouldn't continue against a subpar Pistons squad. His price is still low on both sites, so you're only needing 25 fantasy points or so in cash games. Small forward really is pretty terrible and Bridges is good enough to keep you alive.
Blake Griffin FD - $8400 DK - $7800
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 43.98 DK - 46
After playing 32+ minutes in two straight games, Blake Griffin was rested against the Cavs. He will be back in full swing tonight and now gets to face off with one of the easier match-ups in all of basketball. The Phoenix Suns don't have an interior defense and they like to run the floor a ton. Blake Griffin obviously loves running the floor and thrives when the other team is willing to increase the pace. He's affordable on both sites and power forward is an ugly position without much opportunity cost. Griffin has been a bit underwhelming of late, but I predict 45+ fantasy points in this match-up.
Marvin Bagley FD - $6600 DK - $5600
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 26.15 DK - 25.82 It’s hard for me to get away from Bagley after I’ve watched these last couple games. When in the contest, Bagley is essentially forcing himself into relevancy. I don’t mean that necessarily in a bad way, but he will not take no for an answer. He’s going to run countless pick and rolls and should be in line for at least 25+ fantasy points. The match-up with Dallas is fine, as they rank 16th in basketball against the position. They don't have much athleticism down low and their rim defense is nearly non-existent. With that said, they like to run the floor and Bagley could fit perfectly into this game. He not only comes with 20/25 point insurance, he has the legitimate capability of putting up 50 fantasy points if the heater kicks in. Power forward is pretty miserable, so Bagley against the Mavs is actually a pretty exciting pivot.
Paul Millsap FD - $7500 DK - $6700
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 37.98 DK - 37.27
Millsap has been solid as of late and it looks like he's turning up for the playoffs. He's played 30+ minutes in four straight games and has more than backed it up. In those four games, he's averaged close to 40 fantasy points. He works very well with Nikola Jokic and can actually be paired with him, which is rare for bigs on the same team. Millsap can do a lot of scoring and has turned himself into a stat stuffer with age. The Wizards are their best match-up in the past week and are tired as can be after last night's game vs. the Bulls. Millsap is fairly priced on both sites and any of his last four games will get it done for you. Millsap has always been extremely consistent when given the minutes and it's pretty obvious that he's making a change late in the season. He seems well rest and ready to make his run at the playoffs. Do not be surprised to see Paul Millsap with a couple 50+ fantasy point games down the stretch.
Nikola Jokic FD - $10100 DK - $9600
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 53.97 DK - 56.19
Mason Plumlee FD - $4700 DK - $4200
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 23.03 DK - 22.38
With the Nuggets rested and the Wizards coming off of a rough game against the Bulls, they won’t be able to fill up the paint all night against Nikola Jokic. He’s going to bully the likes of Bryant and Mahinmi, who will be lucky to stop him from hitting 60 fantasy points. The Wizards love to run and the Nuggets are more than willing to adapt. The Joker is going to have a floor over 50 fantasy points and a ceiling well into the 80’s. Center is a spot we’re wanting to pay up at and won’t let you walk away with anything under 50. With all of that said, Plumlee is in play too if you’re looking for cheaper. He puts up over a fantasy point per minute and could get up to 25 if the game flow falls correctly. No matter where you go at center, Jokic and Plumlee are two safe bets for value.
Andre Drummond FD - $10900 DK - $8700
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 54.6 DK - 54.25
If the Nuggets bigs aren’t for you for whatever reason, Andre Drummond is a great pivot. Its easy to look at him as the guy who’s always in foul trouble and isn’t dependable, but he simply hasn’t been that this season. He’s consistently dominated and has worked himself out of that tendency to be benched early in games. He gets a match-up tonight against the Phoenix Suns and DeAndre Ayton, who don’t have a chance to slow him down. The Suns play extremely fast and rank in the bottom 5 against opposing centers. Drummond could easily put up 20/20 tonight and I don’t think he comes in as popular as a few others.
Good luck tonight and feel free to comment down below with any questions!