Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA picks for 3/27/18
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With the NBA season winding down to its final few weeks, we have one of the toughest slates of the season on Wednesday night. What's really important at this point of the season is to monitor injury reports right until lineup lock. There are so many players sitting out and so many players resting, that huge value opens up every single night. That makes it tough on most DFS users but it allows those who are doing their homework to thrive in this volatile environment. So, our goal on this slate is to stack the POR-CHI and PHX-WSH games. Not only should both those games be played at a blistering pace, they both provide a ton of value through injury question marks.
Lillard is probably the best play on the board, as he should have some ridiculous usage in the absence of C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic. With those two off the floor, Lillard is posting an absurd 41.2 percent usage rate while averaging 1.62 DK points per minute. That shows just how potent his role will be with such limited options available, as he could easily be looking at 40 minutes and 30 shots here. His recent fantasy production paints that picture pretty well, with Lillard scoring at least 45 fantasy points in seven straight games while averaging 52.2 DK points per game in that span. It also doesn't hurt that he faces a Bulls defense who ranks dead-last in defensive efficiency.
These guys' roles are heavily predicated on the status of Zach Lavine and Kris Dunn, as they become some of the best values on the board if both those players are ruled out. In Tuesday's loss, Arcidiacono scored 28 DK points while Harrison provided 33.3 fantasy points. That's huge production from players in this price range, as they're a near guarantee for 30 minutes of action if LaVine and Dunn are out. Arcidiacono has been stellar on these prices all season when starting at point guard, averaging 21 fantasy points per game. Harrison's recent form speaks for itself too, as he's averaging 23.2 DK points per game across his last eight outings. Those may not sound like special numbers from either guy but it's a heck of a value in this price range.
Seth Curry could see a season-high in minutes and shots here, as he too will have to step up in the absence of Nurkic and McCollum.
Bradley Beal FD - $10000 DK - $9000
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 51.77 DK - 52.76
Beal is hard to fade the way he's playing right now, especially in a matchup like this. What really makes Beal an attractive option is his monstrous role. In fact, Beal is averaging nearly 40 minutes and 22 shots per game since John Wall went down while leading the team with a 31 percent usage rate. That's a gargantuan role and it really shows in his fantasy production. Since the calendar turned to 2019, Beal is averaging 49 DK points per game. That sort of production looks even better when you consider this matchup, with Phoenix ranking 29th in defensive efficiency. It's also worth mentioning that Beal provided 40 points, 11 rebounds and 15 assists en route to 81 DK points the last time he played the Suns on December 22.
Devin Booker FD - $10700 DK - $9200
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 45.84 DK - 48.57
If Booker's 59 points on Monday isn't enough incentive to use him, this matchup should be. Not only does Washington rank 27th in defensive efficiency, but they also sit 29th in points allowed. That should be a huge boost for a stud like Booker, who's currently averaging 51 DK points per game across his last eight outings. His floor has been incredible too, with Booker scoring at least 36 fantasy points in 20 of his last 21 games. His last game against Washington speaks loudly as well, as he collected 33 points and 14 assists en route to 63.5 fantasy points.
Shooting guard is the position to keep an eye on, as we have injuries across the board. Wayne Selden Jr. and Antonio Blakeney would be great plays if Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine sit out. Meanwhile, Tyler Dorsey and Delon Wright would be tough fades if Mike Conley is ruled out.
Paul George FD - $10400 DK - $9900
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 47.71 DK - 48.51
While revenge game narratives are always dangerous, there's reason to believe George will go off here. In his one game against Indiana earlier this season, George accumulated 36 points, six rebounds and five assists on his way to 55.5 DK points. What was really encouraging about that game was the fact that he took 23 shots and 14 free-throws. That means he was in full-on takeover mode, and he should once again be particularly motivated to face his former team. George comes into this matchup scorching too, scoring at least 49 fantasy points in six of his last seven games. That's the George that was approaching $12,000 earlier in the season and he's currently a nice value in the $10,000-range.
Mikal Bridges FD - $5500 DK - $4800
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 24.86 DK - 24.24
With so many injuries in Phoenix, Bridges has been asked to take on the biggest workload of his NBA career. In fact, Bridges is averaging 32.4 minutes per game across his last 15 games while averaging 22.4 DK points per game in that span. He's actually scored at least 27 DK points in three of his last five games and it's clear they're asking more from him with Kelly Oubre Jr., Tyler Johnson and T.J. Warren sidelined. The best part about this play is the matchup though, with Washington allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards while ranking ninth in pace.
Bobby Portis FD - $6500 DK - $6400
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 38.3 DK - 40.85
Portis has way too much upside to remain this cheap on both DFS sites. His per-minute numbers are just ridiculous, with Portis averaging 28.5 DK points per game across 25 minutes of action. That's about 1.2 DK points per minute, which is all you can ask for from a player who's averaging 35 minutes a game across his last four fixtures. That has allowed Portis to score at least 30 DK points in four of his last five games heading into Tuesday. The main reason for that is because Trevor Ariza is injured, as he re-aggravated his groin injury in Tuesday's loss to the Lakers. The icing on the cake is this matchup though, with Phoenix allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing PF's this season thanks to their top five pace.
Jerami Grant FD - $5500 DK - $5300
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 28.89 DK - 28.04
Grant has had a breakout season and it's hard to understand why he's below $6,000 on DK and FanDuel. After a slow opening two months, Grant has come on big time by averaging 29 DK points per game since the middle of December. That alone is approaching 6X value at this price tag, as he's one of the best bets on the board to provide 5X. The matchup isn't as scary as it appears on the surface either, as Indiana has been a middle-of-the-pack defense since the all-star break.
Al-Farouq-Aminu is worth a shot in the high $4,000's on both sites, as he could play more minutes in the absence of Jusuf Nurkic.
Thomas Bryant FD - $6700 DK - $6000
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 36.67 DK - 35.63
Bryant has seen a huge increase in price recently and rightfully so. The main reason for that is because Bryant has captured the starting center job and that alone has done wonders for his value. Not only is Bryant averaging 33 minutes per game across his last three fixtures, he's also averaging 27 DK points per game in that span. While his price has caught up to that production, this matchup makes him still worth a shot. In fact, Phoenix allows the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season. That was evident when Bryant accrued 31 points and 13 rebounds in his one matchup with the Suns earlier this year.
Enes Kanter FD - $6500 DK - $5000
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 36.52 DK - 38.77
Kanter is probably the chalk of the day and it's easy to understand why with all the injuries the Trail Blazers have suffered. With this current roster, Kanter ranks second on the team with a 22 percent usage rate and could see that rise even more without Nurkic. What that really does is open up minutes and that's all that matters with a player like Kanter. In fact, Kanter is averaging 29.3 DK points per game across 23.5 minutes of action. That's about 1.3 DK points per minute, which means he could provide 40 fantasy points if given 30 minutes of action. That would make him the best value on the board, as he also gets the benefit of facing a Bulls defense who allows the most fantasy points in the league to opposing centers. Don't fade the chalk!
DeAndre Ayton could have success against a Washington defense who ranks bottom-four in both defensive efficiency and points allowed.