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    Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

    04/03/2019
    Chris Durell

    Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – Valero Texas Open

    Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.

    Valero Texas Open

    The WGC Match Play is now over and Kevin Kisner did one better than his runner-up finish a year ago and beat Matt Kuchar in the final this time around. This week the PGA Tour stays in the state of Texas and gets back to stroke play with a trip to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open.

    Andrew Landry is the defending champ and posted a -17 which was the lowest winning score since the event was moved to TPC San Antonio in 2010. With the event being moved to right after the WGC Match Play and right before the Masters the field is a little weaker. It consists of Rickie Fowler(#8) who is the only player inside the Top 10 Official World Golf Rankings and he is joined by just nine others inside the Top 50 OWGR.

    As you can tell by the winning scores over the years, the course is tough and presents some challenges. The first challenge is always the wind and it doesn't look to be a major factor this time around as early forecasts are calling for 7-11 mph of wind Thursday through Sunday with temps in the mid-80's. The next challenge is off the tee with deep bunkers, trees, and native area protecting the fairways. The course is long and the rough is not very long and penal so bombers can do well here if they avoid those previously mentioned dangers. If you are, however, targeting a shorter hitter this week just make sure they are on form with their long irons. The approach shots also present challenges this week as they are heavily protected by deep bunkers. With a field average below 60% hitting greens in regulation here, Strokes Gained: Around the Green will be very important especially in the Sand Save % area. Finally, I will also be weighing Par 5 scoring as the four holes, or at least three of them, are monster par 5's(602, 604, 567, 591). Those players who cna score on these holes can separate themselves from the pack

    Let's jump into the picks.

    The Course

    TPC San Antonio
    Par 72 - 7,435 Yards
    Greens - Bermuda

    **Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**

    Hole Composition

    Approach Shot Distribution

    Previous Five Winners

    • 2018 - Andrew Landry(-17)
    • 2017 - Kevin Chappell(-12)
    • 2016 - Charley Hoffman(-12)
    • 2015 - Jimmy Walker(-11)
    • 2014 - Steven Bowditch(-8)

    Weather

    Top Stats in the Model

    • Strokes Gained: Approach
    • Par 5 Scoring Birdie or Better %
    • Par 4 Scoring
    • Strokes Gained: Around the Green/Sand Save %

    When breaking down the top stats I use a combination of my own cheatsheet, the tools over at FantasyNational.com, and the Future of Fantasy Golfanac.

    Top Tier Targets

    Matt Kuchar
    World Golf Ranking (#16)
    Vegas Odds (16/1)
    Draftkings ($11,200)
    FanDuel ($12,100)

    Kuchar has seen his price go way up this week to a new season high but it is all relative to the weak field. He ranks #1 in my model for a couple of reasons starting with the stats model as he ranks 2nd in SG: App, 6th in SG: Ball Striking, 5th in Driving Accuracy, 19t in Proximity, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Par 5 BoB%, 3rd in Bogey Avoidance, and 5th in Sand Save %. That is pretty much everything I am looking for this week. While he has three straight finishes of 40th or worse here at the Valero, he has been good here overall making all seven cuts at this course with four Top 25 finishes and one Top 10(2014). He is now coming off a runner-up at the WGC Match Play and Kuch has already won twice this year so I am more than willing

    Billy Horschel
    World Golf Ranking (#41)
    Vegas Odds (25/1)
    Draftkings ($9,800)
    FanDuel ($11,000)

    Horschel is one of multiple golfers in the top tier with less than 100% sentiment rating(via FanShareSports) and that says a lot about this event in general. It feels like a great spot to take some shots with guys in GPP and one I will be building around is Billy Ho. His results here at TPC San Antonio been up and down but the ups have been terrific as he has finished T11 or better in three of his last four and four of his eight total trips here. His ball striking recently(88th in this field last 24 rounds via FNGC) has been terrible and that could help scare some away but looking back at his T11 last year, he entered with similar stats. If he ends up as one of the lower owned top tier golfers I will be ecstatic with him in GPP formats.

    Mid Tier Targets

    Joel Dahmen
    World Golf Ranking (#137)
    Vegas Odds (70/1)
    Draftkings ($7,500)
    FanDuel ($9,300)

    It has been a season of streaks for Dahmen who started by making the cut in eight straight events to start the year but followed that up with four straight missed cuts. The good news is that he has found form again with a T12 at the PLAYERS, T30 at the Valspar Championship, and a T12 last week at the Corales Puntacana Championship. In those last 12 rounds, he ranks 21st in this field in SG: Ball Striking, 39th in SG: Par 5, 5th in SG: Par 4, 15th in Fairways Gained, and 14th in fantasy scoring. At these prices, I will have shares of him in all formats this week.

    Luke List
    World Golf Ranking (#67)
    Vegas Odds (50/1)
    Draftkings ($8,000)
    FanDuel ($10,500)

    Hard to trust a golfer like List in cash games but he is a perfect GPP target almost every week. In 10 starts(stroke play) this season, he has missed four cuts and finished T40 or worse in two others but has also tallied a Top 5 at the Safeway Open and RSM Classic, T15 at the Genesis Open, and T10 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Looking at my sheet, he leads this field in SG: Off the Tee, is 3rd in SG: Ball Striking, 1st in Distance, 1st in Par 5 Scoring and Par 5 BoB%, and 10th in overall BoB%. I will have exposure in GPP formats on both sites but his best value comes on DraftKings where he is outside the Top 20 in salary(12th on FanDuel).

    Value Targets

    Nick Taylor
    World Golf Ranking (#241)
    Vegas Odds (75/1)
    Draftkings ($7,200)
    FanDuel ($8,700)

    This feels a bit like a buy-low spot considering the weak field and how consistent Taylor has been recently. He is coming off a T24 at the Valspar and has finished T33 or better in five straight events and has made the cut in 10 of 13 events on the season. He missed the cut here a year ago but has Top 25's in 2017 and 2016 and while he doesn't stand out in any one area statistically he is Top 45 in this field in Par 4 Scoring, Par 5 Scoring, SG: Ball Striking, SG: Around the Green, and fantasy scoring. He is my top value play in all formats.

    Adam Schenk
    World Golf Ranking (#294)
    Vegas Odds (160/1)
    Draftkings ($6,700)
    FanDuel ($7,900)

    Considering the low price, Adam Schenk has been consistent this season making 12 of 16 cuts(75%) with a Top 10 and four Top 25 finishes. Where he really stands out is by looking at the Last 24 round data(via Fantasy National Golf Club) where he ranks 17th in SG: Ball Striking, 12th in SG: Approach, 34th in SG: Par 5, and 8th in SG: Par 4. He made the cut here last year with a T58 and I feel that is his floor this year making him a top value play in all formats.

    Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for six years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.

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