Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA picks for 4/4/18
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Milwaukee Bucks at the Philadelphia 76ers
There is no line on this game right now because the NBA is crazy.
What can you really say about the NBA right now? The Bucks minutes are all over the place right now, and for good reason. They are 3 games up with 4 to play, and could walk into home court advantage throughout the playoffs with basically no effort. They've been crushing even the other playoff teams while playing Giannis 32 minutes, and don't even seem capable of throwing these games. Khris Middleton is currently listed as probable for this game, but if he were to miss it would open up a lot of minutes for guys like Sterling Brown and Pat Connaughton, but if he plays? This thing is anybody's guess. Philly is already a bad match-up, and piling up all this uncertainty makes me very uncomfortable calling anyone on the Bucks' side "safe" here.
As for the 76ers, they are 4 games up on Boston and Indiana in the loss column with 5 games to play. Which is to say, they also have next to nothing to play for. Jimmy Butler and Joel Embiid have been coming and going, and while their absence would open up opportunity for guys like Jonah Bolden and James Ennis, you still have plenty of game script and match-up issues to face.
A long story short? You're going to need to pay close attention to Twitter before offering up a lot of great DFS plays. Sorry for the lack of clarity, but it's the truth.
Cleveland Cavaliers at the Sacramento Kings
The Kings are favored by 9.5 in a game with a 228.5 total.
It's a three game slate, and the tightest known spread is 9.5 points. You excited yet? The good news, such as it is, is that Sacramento is still playing to finish the season above .500, and all evidence is that they seem to care about that. For that reason, I can see playing as many Kings as possible today in what ought to be a pretty good match-up.
There is a veritable sea of Kings you can play tonight, but I wanted to highlight Bjelica because he's also the perfect throwaway type guy on FanDuel. The played 19 minutes against the Rockets in a blowout, and played 25 minutes in a close game before that. I honestly think he could play 30 minutes in the right game script, and he's certainly a candidate to end the night as the highest points per dollar play overall.
Elsewhere on the Kings, you'll see big ownership on guys like Marvin Bagley, Harrison Barnes, and Willie Cauley Stein as well. This isn't hard - there are only 6 teams going today, and Sacramento has by far the best match-up of anyone, and a spread that can't scare you off. A long story short? Fit in as many Kings as you can and call it a day.
Our system is not interested in playing the Cavs, but I think there is a world where Collin Sexton and Cedi Osman turn in solid games. As always with the Cavs, you'll need to pay close attention to both whom they might be sitting and whom they will be starting. The Joys of April hoops!
Golden State Warriors at the Los Angeles Lakers
Golden State is favored by 13 in a game with a 227 total.
So Golden State can't quite call it a regular season just yet, but they're getting pretty close, and that is somewhat terrifying. They're two games up on the Nuggets with five to play, which is almost as close as you can get. Tonight they'll face the hopeless and hapless Lakers, who have been trying to wish the season away for a while now.
So what's our plan from a DFS perspective? I still think the Dubs will make sure they win this one. If they do, our system likes Steph Curry the best from a points per dollar perspective. He's usually the guy who causes the blowouts, and since he takes the ball up the court he seems a little less game script sensitive than guys like Klay Thompson or Kevin Durant. I also think DeMarcus Cousins is a strong center play in a very shallow field.
Which brings us to the Lakers. Sigh. Their D team was competent in the first half against OKC, before letting things get away from them in the third quarter. Moritz Wagner is still cheap, and had paid value by halftime in that game. He also scored negative one fantasy points in the second half, so there's that. I do think there are some good plays here, though.
Rajon Rondo FD - $7500 DK - $6600
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 33.08 DK - 34.22
Yep, it's time! The moment you've been waiting for! Lakers stack, boys! Think about it, all of these guys still played their minutes even when the Thunder were blowing them out. They're big dogs to the Dubs tonight, but who cares? Can they really just pack it in in the third quarter and rest for... what exactly? Stephenson is too cheap, and I think Rondo and KCP's minutes are secure here. This one should be an embarrassment, but on a day that's lacking any real DFS plays I think it's a risk worth taking. Especially given that there really isn't a single team tonight whose minutes you can count on.