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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Playoff Picks - Saturday Preview
We've only got one game firing on Saturday, but it's playoff basketball! That means the DFS Gods have given us a two game slate, on FanDuel at least. Let's take a look at where we can grab value in these series right now.
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Rockets (-3) vs. 
Warriors (+3)
Vegas Implied Score: Golden State - 108.5 Houston - 111.5Over/Under: 220.5
Well, with two games in the books so far it doesn't look like this year's Golden State vs. Houston series will live up to last year's barn burner. The Rockets have managed to hang, but game two never quite felt as close as the final score would have you believe. The Warriors jumped out to a 9 point lead in the first quarter of game two, and never really looked back. Still, Vegas has the Rockets as three point favorites as the series travels to Houston, so let's take a look at each team and see what we learned from game two.
Golden State
The Warriors have been the more adaptable team of the two so far in the playoffs, shedding Bogut's minutes in favor of a true small ball lineup that starts Draymond at the five, giving Boogie's old minutes to Andre Iguodala. They've neutralized Clint Capela by either running him off the floor (game 1) or getting him into foul trouble (game 2), and this has basically let the Dubs get away with a murderously small lineup. By shifting Draymond to the five, Durant to the four, and Iggy to the three, they actually match up totally acceptably everywhere else. Unless the Rockets can figure out how to punish them, it's hard to believe they won't just stick with what is working right now - heavily consolidated minutes into the hands of their current starting lineup.
Andre Iguodala FD - $5700 DK - $5800
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 28.66 DK - 27.68
This is the easy one. Iggy has been wildly efficient (6-9 shooting in game two), but has been involved elsewhere as well, chipping in 5 boards and 4 assists while playing his characteristically great defense. He can cover Harden (as well as anyone, anyway), and greatly reduces the defensive burden of the more offensively minded wings that he plays alongside. Iguodala is just a great small forward option right now.
Klay Thompson FD - $6500 DK - $7600
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 34.23 DK - 35.02
Kevin Durant FD - $10500 DK - $11000
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 55.1 DK - 56.46
With a combined 85 minutes in game 2, it's clear that the Warriors see these two as the lynch-pins of the series. Klay provides his trademark excellent shooting and quietly great team defense, and whatever concerns that we've had about his ankle have at least not impacted how long he's able to stay on the court. As for Durant, the playoffs so far have cemented this as "his" Warriors team, with game two being another where he led the team in both shots and minutes. He's playing with maximum effort right now, adding three defensive stats to the game two mix as well. You can only pay up in so many slots, but I love spending one on Durant.
I think Curry and Draymond are fine plays as well, for what it's worth, particularly since Draymond plays such a shallow position. Curry is also a good value on FanDuel at just $9,000. But hey, it's kind of stupid to recommend every single guy on a team, so here we are! Still, the Warriors have consolidated minutes drastically enough that it's tough to go too wrong with any of the starters.
Houston
Man, it's got to be tough in Houston right now. They're kind of executing their game plan, right? They're putting a lot of threes in the air, keeping the ball in the hands of their best offensive players, and they're just losing. Yes, they ran bad from three in game two (with a 30.6% shooting percentage), but it's not like that's happening in a vacuum. Golden State's small ball lineups can cover the perimeter even better than when they have Cousins/Boogie out there, and it's been interesting to watch the Dubs try to force the Rockets inside the arc. It's led to a lot of disjointed possessions, and I'm honestly not sure what they change to try and get those threes back.
Clint Capela FD - $7500 DK - $7200
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 37.7 DK - 38.8
The one part of the plan that has in no way been up to snuff has been Clint Capela. He led the team in minutes in the final game of the regular season series with Golden State, and hasn't been able to stay on the court so far. He performed alright in game two when he was out there, but Golden State attacked him to the point where he fouled out after just 33 minutes. It does raise a question about what the plan is for Capela's minutes going forward, though. If the real plan was to try and get him 36+ minutes come hell or high water, we could see him as an excellent value going forward.
P.J. Tucker FD - $5900 DK - $6200
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 22.9 DK - 22.65
Tucker puts us in sort of an awkward spot at these prices. He plays a bad position, and for Houston it playing him is just sort of a must when you consider how the Rockets line up against Draymond and Durant. He can switch onto either depending the situation, and the Rockets just don't match up well against the rest of the Warriors very well positionally. They'd obviously like to play all three of Gordon, Paul, and Harden big minutes, but that leaves them without a true small forward. While Iguodala isn't very likely to punish them for this, that leaves them with three guys who will get destroyed by Durant and Green. That leaves Tucker with 41+ minutes of work ahead of him, which should make him an excellent high floor play.
Chris Paul FD - $8300 DK - $8400
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 41.24 DK - 41.69
CP3 played 6 more minutes than Harden in game two, and importantly had more assists as well. With Eric Gordon fully relegated to catch and shoot duty, the Rockets are turning to Paul to create for both himself and others more than I expected going into this series. He matched Harden's fantasy point output in game two, and he's obviously quite a bit cheaper. There's a chance that the higher ups in Houston are sitting Harden down and telling him to just take over, but I wouldn't leave it past the wily Paul to have a big game or two up his sleeve before this one is over. They obviously depend on him to get in Curry's head and cause havoc defensively, and I expect 39-41 minutes will be the norm for the rest of the series.
Vegas Projected Score: Toronto - 108.75 Philadelphia - 107.75
Raptors (-1.5) vs. 
76ers (+1.5)
Over/Under: 214.5
Series: Philly leads 2-1
Well, it's starting to look like Brett Brown is about as crazy as a fox. The Raptors have clearly come in with one plan: give the ball to Kawhi, and make Kawhi shut down Ben Simmons. And too be honest, he's been pretty much up to the task. Micah Adams put out a prescient tweet after game three's drubbing, pointing out that the Raptors' cumulative offensive rating is 110.4 with Leonard on the floor this series, and 54.1 with him ff the floor. That's just a staggering difference, and it basically suggests that the Raptors are losing solely due to their second unit. Ibaka has looked particularly lost, and VanVleet missed every single shot he took in game 3. That's a problem for a number of reasons, but when you throw in the 2-10 shooting day from Kyle Lowry you're starting to look at some pretty serious problems.
Like I cautioned people prior to this series, though, it's important to not jump to too many conclusions based on a couple game sample. Yes, the Sixers seem to have found an answer for now, but nothing in this life lasts forever, and Toronto has been able to adjust well to opponents all season long. Let's see how things are shaking up for DFS purposes.
Toronto
Kawhi Leonard FD - $10000 DK - $Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 58.73 DK - 0
In game 3 in was Kawhi and then everybody else, and it's hard to believe that the Raptors don't just double down on Leonard given that he's averaged 37.6 points a game on 60.8% percent from the field. Leonard might realistically have to play something like 42-44 minutes a game for the Raptors to accomplish anything offensively, but what else were they resting him all season long for? I think we see Leonard early and often in what amounts to a do or die game.
There is a question as to whether he's a great fantasy play, though. The very same Micah Adams points out that Leonard has posted just a 102.4 offensive rating with Simmons covering him, and a 123.1 offensive rating when anyone else covers him. If things really start to spiral out of control, you can count on Simmons to blanket him. That's when things should really get interesting.
Outside of Kawhi, though, what can we really sink our teeth into for this Raptors team? Lowry looks like a deer in headlights. Siakam is underperforming his price, which is particularly scary for things that should be a little more reliable, like rebounds. The Raps can't really decide how much they should commit to Gasol. I guess that leaves us with... Danny Green? I guess. I mean, shooting guard is pretty rough right now.
Philadelphia
Jimmy Butler FD - $8900 DK - $Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 44.4 DK - 0
How quickly the tables have turned! For a "bunch of mismatched pieces that were never going to work in the first place," the Sixers are sure looking like a team with a plan right now. They've basically turned Ben Simmons into a decoy, leaning on Butler to create for himself and others. And, you may have noticed, it's working. Butler is doing his best baby Westbrook impersonation, averaging 10 boards and 7 assists across these last two contests. Toronto could flip the script and elect to take him away instead of Simmons, but given that we've seen this for two games I'm not going to be holding my breath.
You've also got to give credit to Joel Embiid, who finally seemed to overcome his knee soreness and dominate the Raptors in game three. He dropped 33 and 10 in 28 minutes en route to making the Gasol plan look a little silly. I still wouldn't count on Embiid for cash games, but only because I think you can find higher floor options elsewhere given Embiid's health question marks and the potential that Gasol rises to the occasion in game four. It was cool to see the big man get his, though.
Tobias Harris seemed as steady as ever in game three, leading the Sixers in minutes played while contributing across a bunch of fantasy categories. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: power forward is bad, and he's a guy who is fairly unlikely to kill you.
Nuggets (3) vs. 
Trail Blazers (-3)
Vegas Projected Score: Portland - 109.25 Denver - 106.25
Over/Under: 214.5
Series: Portland leads 2-1
So, that happened. Portland and Denver played an ESPN classic level game on Friday night, pushing WAY past my bedtime given that it was a west coast game. Still, I watched it this morning and managed to get a pretty good picture of what happened. Nothing will compare to catching a game like this live, but hey, you do what you can.
Denver Value
Nikola Jokic FD - $10600 DK - $Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 59.68 DK - 0
Our NBA writer Doug Norrie rightfully pointed out how Denver gets diminishing returns from pushing Jokic in his last article on this series, so what do we do with him after him played an astounding sixty-five minutes on Friday night? That's 45 regular minutes if you're playing along at home, and the 33/18/14 was quite the display. The big takeaway we see from Denver is that Jokic is basically the point-center. The offense is running through him entirely and we should prepare accordingly. It's almost like Denver remembered that Enes Kanter was so freely available precisely because of his poor defense, and regardless of how the game turned out you should prepare for a lot more Jokic here. You can't spend up everywhere, but grabbing this level of opportunity at a modest $10,600 price tag on FanDuel is looking awfully juicy.
Gary Harris FD - $5000 DK - $
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 29.68 DK - 0
Harris played 40 minutes in Game 2 and 49.5 in game three, staying on the court for long stretches because he was tasked with guarding CJ McCollum. Harris gets to stay out there specifically because of his defense, and while he's the Eric Gordon of the Nuggets right now that can absolutely be worth the price if he's going to remain this active defensively. Again, we're on short slates and getting cheaper guys who play big minutes is the only thing resembling a high floor strategy.
As for the rest, it was interesting to see Craig and Barton split time in the four overtime game, and it's clear that Craig's facial injury still has him looking not quite right. Will Barton was absurdly good in his 38 minutes, putting together 22 points and 9 rebounds en route to 50+ fantasy points. We know Barton can run hot and cold, but it's hard to believe that he isn't the more exciting fantasy play at the very least.
Portland Value
Enes Kanter FD - $7600 DK - $Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 38.84 DK - 0
The Blazers are all in on the Enes Kanter plan right now, and it seems like they've decided that the payoff of wearing down Jokic on the defensive end is worth the liability of his own subpar defense. Kanter is now averaging 20 and 10 in this series, understanding that some of that is inflated by a 56 minutes in the 4 OT game. Still, the fact that they view Kanter as a must-play any time Jokic is on the court tells you most of what you need to know. He's the plan in Portland, for better or worse, and he makes for a great DFS play as a result.
C.J. McCollum FD - $7100 DK - $
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 35.97 DK - 0
The only other real value on the Blazers looks to be CJ McCollum, who shot an absurd 39 shots in 60 minutes in game three. He led the team in regulation and overtime minutes, shot 15 times more than the next highest guy (Lillard), chipped in 5 defensive stats, and got the game winning rebound and assist after he found Rodney Hood for the game winner. McCollum is flat out too cheap, and a great shooting guard option here.
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