FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Playoff Picks - Monday Preview

We are coming off an awesome weekend of playoff basketball. Every team that *needed* to win, did it. The Rockets, Raptors and Nuggets all took care of business to get their respective series closer or tied. It's been great stuff. On Monday we get the Bucks looking to take a commanding lead while the aforementioned Rockets look to tie things up.

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Bucks (1.5) vs. Celtics (-1.5)

Vegas Projected Score: Milwaukee - 111.25 Boston 109.75
Over/Under: 221
Series: Milwaukee 2-1

The Celtics surprised the Bucks in Game 1 with 22 point blowout in Milwaukee that brought with it some real concerns about Giannis and company. The latter dispelled some of that with convincing wins in Games 2 and 3. They made a starting lineup change, getting Nikola Mirotic in there to space the floor more as well as add size. The Bucks now have a 2-1 series lead with a chance to really cement things if they can win again in Boston on Monday.

It’s very encouraging, from a Milwaukee perspective, that they got such positive contributions from their bench play on Friday night in Game 2. George Hill and Pat Connaughton played 29 and 28 minutes respectively combining for 35 points and 11 rebounds. They both played crunch time and drove so much of what the Bucks were trying to do with spacing around Giannis.

If Malcolm Brogdon is able to return for Game 4 it will be interesting to see how the Coach Bud and the Bucks work their rotations considering the former hasn’t played in months.

Milwaukee Value

Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11800 DK - $10100
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 60.98 DK - 62.78
Giannis got back to doing Giannis things over the last two games with Game 3 a real MVP-like performance out of the big guy. He dropped a 32 point, 13 rebound, eight assist line in 39 minutes. That kind of run should be the new normal going forward as the Bucks get into playoff rotations. It’s simple: they need every minute out of this dude and fading him becomes awfully tough on these two-game slates. Sure, there are other superstars like James Harden and Kevin Durant, but when you add in the possibly prolific defensive stats, Giannis stands a cut above the others.

Nikola Mirotic FD - $4700 DK - $4200
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 25.16 DK - 25.97
I still think we are getting value on Mirotic in this starting role (assuming Brogdon doesn’t come back and take his place). The former played 29 minutes in Game 3 and shot fine enough from the field (5-9, 3-7 from three). There’s some chance he just hasn’t put it all together from a fantasy perspective considering he just have nine rebounds in Game 2. If the boards and scoring

Boston Value

Jayson Tatum FD - $7000 DK - $6000
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 34.93 DK - 34.84
After being almost non-existent in Games 1 and 2, Tatum rounded back into form on Friday, showing a much more aggressive approach on both ends of the court. He took 14 shots, the second-most on the team after Kyrie, and finished with 20 points and 11 rebounds. The Celtics really could use this kind of play from him going forward and because of some weaker games in the short term he’s still priced advantageously on both sites.

Al Horford FD - $6800 DK - $6500
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 41.05 DK - 40.73
The Celtics still need almost all available minutes out of Big Al in this matchup considering he’s the primary defender on Giannis. I suppose we could see more switches and Marcus Smart taking over some of the defensive load, but the latter hasn’t played in quite some time and we still aren’t totally sure of the Celtics’ starting lineup. For the series, Horford is averaging 17 points, nine rebounds, four assists and two blocks. He’s still locked in as a cash play.

After these two, the return of Marcus Smart does make the Celtics’ minutes a bit of a crapshoot.

Warriors (1.5) vs. Rockets (-1.5)

Vegas Projected Score: Golden State - 111.25 Houston 109.75
Over/Under: 221
Series: Golden State 2-1

Well, Game 3 either delivered or was wildly disappointing depending on what side of the ledger you fall. If the Warriors somehow lose this series this could end up being the defining moment of the playoffs:

Steph 😬

(via @espn) pic.twitter.com/MOpya2yigX

— The Crossover (@TheCrossover) May 5, 2019

I don’t think it goes that route, but man the end of Game 3 (both regulation and overtime) was just wild. Weird shot selection, refs letting a bunch of stuff play through, Rockets not calling a timeout on the last possession, Curry’s missed dunk, the Warriors inexplicably not fouling near the end of OT. It was all just so weird.

Game 4 is another pivotal/ leverage matchup with the series swinging back to the Bay Area right after. The Rockets played some of their key pieces extended regulation minutes (as did the Warriors) and I think we’ll see similar rotations on Monday.

My gut says that Game 3 was about as good as Houston can really expect to play over the course of a whole game and they just squeaked out the win. They’ll need similar outputs in this one to keep the series wishing range.

Golden State Value

Stephen Curry FD - $8900 DK - $7700
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 52.93 DK - 56.24
Let’s face it, even if Curry throws down that dunk at the end of overtime, he’s still had something of a disaster series. He’s averaging *just* 18 points, four rebounds and four assists through the first three games. The shooting has been a real issue, knocking down only 37% of his attempts and 25% from three. He’s just too good for this continue (famous last words and all) and I’m epnoucraged that the shot volume has been there. He’s the only superstar who’s seen the price drop in the short term and I do think we are still getting him at a value.

Draymond Green FD - $8600 DK - $6900
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 39.46 DK - 39.01
Draymond is still very much in play on DraftKings thanks to his mid-tier pricing and high minutes' floor. He's have a fantastic series, averaging 16 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists. A good Game 4 with the dimes and he could be looking at a triple-double for the series. He's getting great looks around the basket when the Rockets fail to convert switches and that could continue considering Houston is unlikely to switch up much on their defensive scheme.

Houston Value

Eric Gordon FD - $5600 DK - $5600
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 28.89 DK - 31.05
Gordon’s been something of a volume scorer in this series, averaging 24 points per game on 41% three-point shooting. He has to score in order to pay these prices considering he doesn’t do all that much else from a fantasy perspective. But that’s built into the price at this point.

If you think Austin Rivers (FD $3900 DK $3400) continues to play these high leverage/ crunch time minutes then he is a very good punt play.