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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

05/05/2019
James Davis

FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Playoff Picks - Sunday Preview

The NBA playoffs roll on with a two-game Sunday slate. We've got two juicy series to break down today, though most of these write-ups will be the same as yesterday's article if you happened to catch it since there was a two-day slate going on. We do have some updated injury news with Siakam, though, so let's get to it.

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Raptors Raptors (-1.5) vs. 76ers 76ers (+1.5)

Vegas Projected Score: Toronto - 108.75 Philadelphia - 107.75
Over/Under: 214.5
Series: Philly leads 2-1


Well, it's starting to look like Brett Brown is about as crazy as a fox. The Raptors have clearly come in with one plan: give the ball to Kawhi, and make Kawhi shut down Ben Simmons. And too be honest, he's been pretty much up to the task. Micah Adams put out a prescient tweet after game three's drubbing, pointing out that the Raptors' cumulative offensive rating is 110.4 with Leonard on the floor this series, and 54.1 with him ff the floor. That's just a staggering difference, and it basically suggests that the Raptors are losing solely due to their second unit. Ibaka has looked particularly lost, and VanVleet missed every single shot he took in game 3. That's a problem for a number of reasons, but when you throw in the 2-10 shooting day from Kyle Lowry you're starting to look at some pretty serious problems.

Like I cautioned people prior to this series, though, it's important to not jump to too many conclusions based on a couple game sample. Yes, the Sixers seem to have found an answer for now, but nothing in this life lasts forever, and Toronto has been able to adjust well to opponents all season long. Let's see how things are shaking up for DFS purposes.

Toronto Value

The one big outstanding piece of news right now surrounds Pascal Siakam. He's currently listed as doubtful with a calf contusion, which is big for a couple of reasons. First of all, he's the Raptors' second biggest offensive option right now, and redistributing those shots means dramatically increased opportunity for everyone. And then of course you have his minutes. I assume Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol would see the biggest uptick if Siakam were to sit, with Ibaka entering the starting five. Both become excellent DFS plays if it comes down to that.

Kawhi LeonardKawhi Leonard FD - $9900 DK - $9100
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 61.32 DK - 61.3
In game 3 in was Kawhi and then everybody else, and it's hard to believe that the Raptors don't just double down on Leonard given that he's averaged 37.6 points a game on 60.8% percent from the field. Leonard might realistically have to play something like 42-44 minutes a game for the Raptors to accomplish anything offensively, but what else were they resting him all season long for? I think we see Leonard early and often in what amounts to a do or die game.

There is a question as to whether he's a great fantasy play, though. The very same Micah Adams points out that Leonard has posted just a 102.4 offensive rating with Simmons covering him, and a 123.1 offensive rating when anyone else covers him. If things really start to spiral out of control, you can count on Simmons to blanket him. That's when things should really get interesting.

Outside of Kawhi, though, what can we really sink our teeth into for this Raptors team? Lowry looks like a deer in headlights. The Raps can't really decide how much they should commit to Gasol. I guess that leaves us with... Danny Green? I guess. I mean, shooting guard is pretty rough right now.

Philadelphia Value

Jimmy ButlerJimmy Butler FD - $9400 DK - $7500
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 43.24 DK - 42.13
How quickly the tables have turned! For a "bunch of mismatched pieces that were never going to work in the first place," the Sixers are sure looking like a team with a plan right now. They've basically turned Ben Simmons into a decoy, leaning on Butler to create for himself and others. And, you may have noticed, it's working. Butler is doing his best baby Westbrook impersonation, averaging 10 boards and 7 assists across these last two contests. Toronto could flip the script and elect to take him away instead of Simmons, but given that we've seen this for two games I'm not going to be holding my breath.

You've also got to give credit to Joel Embiid, who finally seemed to overcome his knee soreness and dominate the Raptors in game three. He dropped 33 and 10 in 28 minutes en route to making the Gasol plan look a little silly. I still wouldn't count on Embiid for cash games, but only because I think you can find higher floor options elsewhere given Embiid's health question marks and the potential that Gasol rises to the occasion in game four. It was cool to see the big man get his, though.

Tobias Harris seemed as steady as ever in game three, leading the Sixers in minutes played while contributing across a bunch of fantasy categories. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: power forward is bad, and he's a guy who is fairly unlikely to kill you.

Nuggets Nuggets (3) vs. Trail Blazers Trail Blazers (-3)


Vegas Projected Score: Portland - 109.25 Denver - 106.25
Over/Under: 214.5
Series: Portland leads 2-1


So, that happened. Portland and Denver played an ESPN classic level game on Friday night, pushing WAY past my bedtime given that it was a west coast game. Still, I watched it this morning and managed to get a pretty good picture of what happened. Nothing will compare to catching a game like this live, but hey, you do what you can.


Denver Value

Nikola JokicNikola Jokic FD - $10600 DK - $10400
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 58.16 DK - 60.04
Our NBA writer Doug Norrie rightfully pointed out how Denver gets diminishing returns from pushing Jokic in his last article on this series, so what do we do with him after him played an astounding sixty-five minutes on Friday night? That's 45 regular minutes if you're playing along at home, and the 33/18/14 was quite the display. The big takeaway we see from Denver is that Jokic is basically the point-center. The offense is running through him entirely and we should prepare accordingly. It's almost like Denver remembered that Enes Kanter was so freely available precisely because of his poor defense, and regardless of how the game turned out you should prepare for a lot more Jokic here. You can't spend up everywhere, but grabbing this level of opportunity at a modest $10,600 price tag on FanDuel is looking awfully juicy.

Also, if you want the almost perfect summary of Jokic's contribution to this team, there's this:

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Gary HarrisGary Harris FD - $5000 DK - $5000
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 29.68 DK - 29.94
Harris played 40 minutes in Game 2 and 49.5 in game three, staying on the court for long stretches because he was tasked with guarding CJ McCollum. Harris gets to stay out there specifically because of his defense, and while he's the Eric Gordon of the Nuggets right now that can absolutely be worth the price if he's going to remain this active defensively. Again, we're on short slates and getting cheaper guys who play big minutes is the only thing resembling a high floor strategy.

As for the rest, it was interesting to see Craig and Barton split time in the four overtime game, and it's clear that Craig's facial injury still has him looking not quite right. Will Barton was absurdly good in his 38 minutes, putting together 22 points and 9 rebounds en route to 50+ fantasy points. We know Barton can run hot and cold, but it's hard to believe that he isn't the more exciting fantasy play at the very least.

Portland Value

Enes KanterEnes Kanter FD - $7600 DK - $6500
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 38.67 DK - 40.95
The Blazers are all in on the Enes Kanter plan right now, and it seems like they've decided that the payoff of wearing down Jokic on the defensive end is worth the liability of his own subpar defense. Kanter is now averaging 20 and 10 in this series, understanding that some of that is inflated by a 56 minutes in the 4 OT game. Still, the fact that they view Kanter as a must-play any time Jokic is on the court tells you most of what you need to know. He's the plan in Portland, for better or worse, and he makes for a great DFS play as a result.

C.J. McCollumC.J. McCollum FD - $7500 DK - $6900
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 35.25 DK - 36.34
The only other real value on the Blazers looks to be CJ McCollum, who shot an absurd 39 shots in 60 minutes in game three. He led the team in regulation and overtime minutes, shot 15 times more than the next highest guy (Lillard), chipped in 5 defensive stats, and got the game winning rebound and assist after he found Rodney Hood for the game winner. McCollum is flat out too cheap, and a great shooting guard option here.

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