Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

    05/07/2019
    Chris Durell

    Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – AT&T Byron Nelson

    Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.

    AT&T Byron Nelson

    This week the PGA Tour heads back to Trinity Forest Golf Club as it will host the AT&T Byron Nelson for the second time. Aaron Wise returns as the defending champion as he posted a -23 winning score, three strokes better than Marc Leishman. With this year's event a week before the PGA Championship, the field is once again fairly week but lead by World #3, Brooks Koepka and Trinity Forest member, Jordan Spieth.

    The course is a Ben Crenshaw/Bill Coore design and is a Links Style setup in every facet besides location as it resides inland. Even with very generous fairways(75%+ driving accuracy last year), this course forces players to really use their brains and in some regards play the holes backward from green to tee. The greens are very undulated putting an emphasis on approach shots and when breaking down Strokes Gained: Approach, I will be looking closely at Proximity stats. With all the undulation I will also be looking at players who rank high in three-putt avoidance.

    The course played very firm last year and that will be the biggest difference as Dallas has received lots of rain lately and looking at the early forecast, it is supposed to rain right up until late Wednesday night. This will have the course playing softer which, in my opinion, gives more advantage to the bombers who will fly it farther while last year the shorter hitters were benefited by the firm rollout fairway conditions. Not that shorter hitters can't succeed but when targeting them make sure they are trending with their long iron play.

    It also makes sense to take a look at golfers who are successful in playing Links-Style golf. For this info, I turn to the Fantasy Golfanac who looks at strokes gained information from all Links events worldwide going back to the start of the 2014 season. Check it out!

    The Course

    Trinity Forest Golf Club
    Par 71- 7,380 Yards
    Greens - Bermuda

    **Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**

    Top Stats in the Model

    • Strokes Gained: Approach w/ Emphasis on Proximity
    • Strokes Gained: Off the Tee w/ Emphasis on Distance
    • Par 4 Scoring
    • Par 5 Birdie or Better %
    • Performance on Links Courses
    • Performance in Windy Conditions

    When breaking down the top stats I use a combination of my own cheatsheet, the tools over at FantasyNational.com, and the Future of Fantasy Golfanac.

    Top Tier Targets

    Hideki Matsuyama
    World Golf Ranking (#29)
    Vegas Odds (16/1)
    Draftkings ($11,000)
    FanDuel ($11,500)

    Koepka is the favorite and most expensive golfer this week but I am leaning Matsuyama for a couple of reason starting with the $1,100 price differential on FanDuel. Looking at my sheet, Matsuyama also has the edge statistically ranking 9th in SG: Off the Tee, 2nd in SG: Approach, 10th in Driving Distance, 15th in Par 4 Scoring, 20th in Birdie or Better %, 12th in Bogey Avoidance, and 1st in Scrambling. My rank also checks out with my custom model rankings on Fantasy National Golf Club as Deki is also #1 looking at the 24 rounds data. With his consistency, he is worth paying up for in all formats this week.

    Aaron Wise
    World Golf Ranking (#62)
    Vegas Odds (25/1)
    Draftkings ($9,400)
    FanDuel ($10,900)

    Wise is the defending after putting on a clinic last year as he ranked 2nd in SG: Off the Tee, 1st in SG: Approach, 2nd in Birdies Gained, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, and 6th in Par 5 Scoring. After that win, he missed five straight and six of his next seven cuts which just proves his inconsistency but huge upside. In 22 events since that career-changing win, Wise has made just 12 cuts(55%) but has three Top 10's and nine Top 25 finishes including two straight at the Masters and last week's Wells Fargo Championship. With the stats, form, and history tied in he ranks Top 5 in my model and will be a core play for me in GPP formats.

    Also Consider: Sungjae Im and Keith Mitchell as core plays and Jordan Spieth as a GPP target

    Mid Tier Targets

    Rafa Cabrera Bello
    World Golf Ranking (#31)
    Vegas Odds (40/1)
    Draftkings ($8,600)
    FanDuel ($10,500)

    If you are looking for consistency in the mid-tier look no further than Rafa Cabrera Bello. In 12 events on the PGA Tour this season, he has made all but one cut(The PLAYERS) with two Top 5's and eight Top 25 finishes. He doesn't fit the bomber profile but on my sheet, he ranks 10th in SG: Off the Tee, 11th in SG: Approach, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, and 13th in overall Birdie or Better %. On top of that, he pops on the Links-Style Top 25 list which looks at Strokes Gained performance since the start of the 2014 season(via Future of Fantasy Golfanac). At these prices, Bello is in play in all formats.

    Trey Mullinax
    World Golf Ranking (#220)
    Vegas Odds (70/1)
    Draftkings ($7,600)
    FanDuel ($9,200)

    While most players have seen a big price increase with this being a weaker field event, Mullinax continues to hover in the same range. That makes him easily one of my top PTS/$ values this week. He comes in playing very solid lately having made the cut in five straight and 12 of his last 13 stroke-play events with five Top 25 finishes in that time. He also stands out statistically ranking top 15 in both SG: Off the Tee and Approach, 34th in Proximity, 7th in Driving Distance, and 7th in Par 5 Birdie or Better %. Despite this being his first trip to Trinity Forest, I will have exposure to Mullinax in all formats.

    Value Targets

    Dylan Frittelli
    World Golf Ranking (#95)
    Vegas Odds (90/1)
    Draftkings ($7,500)
    FanDuel ($8,800)

    Frittelli is a consistent European Tour regular who has also been consistent on the PGA Tour this season. Through 12 stroke-events, he has made nine cuts with three Top 25 finishes and ranks Top 50 in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green overall. On my sheet, he is also 12th in SG: Ball Striking, 38th in Par 4 Scoring, 6th in Par 5 Scoring, and 4th in Scrambling. With the price and consistency, I will be looking to Frittelli in cash games for the most part but will also have exposure in GPP's.

    Nick Taylor
    World Golf Ranking (#253)
    Vegas Odds (125/1)
    Draftkings ($7,000)
    FanDuel ($8,500)

    Taylor doesn't stand out in any one area this week but collectively has been solid across the board. While the upside has been limited(one Top 10), he is a terrific target for cash games at these prices considering he has made 13 of 16 cuts in stroke-play events this season including eight straight coming into this week. He finished with a T32 last year and this is about what I am projecting this year. That is more than enough for him to hit value at these prices.

    Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for six years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.

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