Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 5/19/19
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Sunday slates are always my favorite because we get almost every team in baseball playing within a three-hour span. It's baseball's equivalent to the Red Zone Channel and that's a beautiful sight for any baseball fan. In terms of weather, we don't have a whole lot to worry about on this slate. With that said, Cincinnati, Chicago and Washington are some games we need to keep an eye on, as they have questionable forecasts.
There's a lot to like here about Syndergaard and he's probably the highest-upside pitcher on this slate. While he struggled early on, the fact that he owns a 2.35 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over his last three starts shows the sort of potential he has. We're talking about a guy with a K rate approaching 30 percent too and it's no doubt that Thor is one of the most dangerous arms in the Majors. That makes him worth using against anyone but facing the Marlins is an absolute treat. In fact, Miami currently sits last in wOBA, xWOBA, xSLG, OPS and runs scored.
Musgrove allowed 13 combined runs in his last two starts before a seven-inning shutout earlier in the week but those poor outings lowered his price to this tempting number. Outside of those two starts, Musgrove has been stellar, posting an ERA south of 1.50 and a minuscule WHIP of 0.80. That's obviously ridiculous and it has to make one wonder why he's so cheap. Getting to face San Diego is not something we need to worry about either, with the Padres ranking 27th in K rate, 29th in OBP and 26th in xwOBA.
Shane Bieber pops up very highly in our projections against a Baltimore offense who ranks 29th in xwOBA.
While this DraftKings price is definitely appropriate, this FanDuel price is hard to understand. We're talking about a guy who has an ISO approaching .300 and an xwOBA just shy of .400 since the start of last season. He comes into this matchup hot too, homering in four of his last 12 games. Getting to use Muncy against a righty should only help, with Muncy posting a .952 OPS against right-handers since his call-up.
While Goldy hasn't quite gotten out to the start that he was hoping for with his new team, he's really tough to fade in this circumstance. Any hitter is worth a shot in Globe Life Park, with the Texas ballpark ranking as the second-best hitting park in the majors. That puts almost anyone in play, especially a guy who has a career ISO north of .230 and a wOBA just shy of .400. Any perennial all-star is worth considering in Texas, especially when they get the platoon advantage. For his career, Goldy has posted a 1.014 OPS against southpaws and Drew Smyly's 6.85 ERA and 1.73 WHIP this season makes him a pitcher we definitely want to exploit.
If you're in need of a catcher, Yadier Molina has the same platoon advantage as Goldy in the same stellar ballpark.
Flores is a regular in our articles, as we believe he's underpriced against left-handed pitching. So far this season, Flores has posted an .859 OPS against left-handers and he always finds himself in the heart of the Diamondbacks order. That's all you can ask for from someone so cheap and facing a guy with a 5.93 ERA and 1.62 WHIP only adds to Flores' intrigue.
Merrifield is simply one of the best second basemen in the game right now and one has to wonder why he's not closer to $4,000 on FD and $5,000 on DK. Dating back to last season, Merrifield ranks second among all second baseman in fantasy points per game. That's pretty much carried over to this year, as he's averaging about 10 DK points per game. Getting to use him against a lefty is the icing on the cake though, with Merrifield posting an .883 OPS against southpaws since 2017. Tyler Skaggs' 5.05 ERA and 1.40 WHIP makes him someone we want to stack against too.
Semien actually usually hits lead-off against a lefty and that's a huge boost in a game like this. With Gregory Soto opposing the A's, Oakland has one of the highest run projections on the board. Getting the lead-off hitter in that sort of circumstance is huge, with Soto posting a 13.50 ERA and 2.67 WHIP in two starts so far this season. He didn't make it through the third inning last game, and it's hard to imagine much of a different outcome here. That's a small sample size but it says a lot about just how poor this Tigers pitching staff is right now. Dating back to last season, Semien has a .759 OPS and .340 OBP against southpaws and it's easy to understand why he's leading off.
DeJong just hit a homer on Saturday and that shows just how special he's been this season. Batting third for the Cardinals was a sign of confidence from the manager from day one and his .319 average and .949 OPS proves that St. Louis knew something that many didn't. Hitting in the heart of the order is huge in a ballpark like this, as the Cardinals are projected for nearly six runs here in one of the friendliest hitter's parks in the Majors. Facing a lefty is big for DeJong too, as he's posting a 1.057 OPS against southpaws so far this season.
Corey Seager remains super cheap on both sites and would be a critical piece to a Dodgers stack in the heart of their order.
Chapman is the second piece to our Oakland stack and we want to get as many Oakland righties into our lineup as possible. Chapman should be right in the heart of the A's order and that becomes very enticing when you consider Soto's aforementioned statistics from the Semien write-up. The righty third baseman is absolutely shredding lefties this season too, posting a 1.034 OPS against them in nearly 50 plate appearances.
Ramirez remains too cheap on both DFS sites and we're going to keep playing him until he gets closer to his price from last year. Throughout the 2017-18 season, Ramirez was $4,500 on FanDuel and over $5,000 on DraftKings. He actually finished 2018 with the second-most fantasy points in the league and he's simply too good to keep up these struggles. Facing Yefry Ramirez is a good way for him to get out of this slump, with the Baltimore righty posting a 5.85 ERA and 1.52 WHIP across 72.1 innings at the major league level.
This is yet another Dodger that is way too cheap on FanDuel and it's hard to understand why they're keeping these LA bats so low. This Pederson price is one of the most mind-blowing on the slate, as he's typically batting lead-off against right-handed pitching and should be over $4,000. So far this season, Pederson has all 14 of his homers against righties while posting a 1.064 OPS and .361 OBP. That shows the sort of potential he has and he's a can't miss if you're stacking Dodgers, who happen to be one of the highest-totaled teams on the slate.
McCutchen has made minced meat of lefties throughout his career and we definitely want to use him against a struggling arm like Kyle Freeland. Not only does the Rockies lefty sit with a 5.68 ERA and 1.34 WHIP so far this season, he's actually allowed 19 runs over his last four starts in total. That spells disaster in a hitter's haven like Citizens Bank Ballpark, especially considering the fact that McCutchen has a career .946 OPS against southpaws.
Ozuna just quietly gets it done yeat-after-year and he really deserves more credit. So far this season, Ozuna is posting a .280 ISO and .390 xwOBA. That's simply elite power and that's a scary thought in a park like Globe Life. Getting to face a weak lefty like Drew Smyly makes Ozuna even more enticing, with the righty slugger posting a .345 OBP and .841 OPS against lefties for his career.
Stephen Piscotty has traditionally been better against left-handers and that could be huge in our A's stack.