Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 6/4/19
After a silly four-game slate on Monday, we get back to a full schedule for Tuesday in baseball. There are some aces, some hitters' ballparks and everything else in between. Let's get to some plays for FanDuel and DraftKings.
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Quick weather update:
We have rain forecasted all across the country and there's a lot of games we're going to need to key in on. The teams/cities we need to focus on are Milwaukee, Chicago, St.Louis, Cleveland, Detroit and Kansas City. The good news is that summer is right around the corner and we won't have to worry about this crap then.
Can we start calling Strasburg one of the best pitcher's in the league? This guy just continues to do work and he might be in the midst of the best season of his career. In fact, the Washington righty is pitching to a 3.19 ERA and 0.99 WHIP while striking out 98 batters across 79 innings. That K rate makes him one of the most dangerous arms in the league, especially against a White Sox team who has the worst K rate in the Majors dating back to last season. Not to mention, Chicago ranks 22nd in runs scored, 21st in wOBA and 24th in SLG while being without a DH in an NL park. That's why Strasburg enters this matchup as a -270 favorite with the White Sox projected for only 3.5 runs.
The inconsistency of Syndergaard will drive any fantasy owner mad but it's hard to overlook his upside. We're talking about a guy who has a 2.78 career FIP to match a beautiful 27 percent K rate. While his season-long numbers are not close to that, his 3.63 xFIP and .278 xwOBA indicates that he has some positive regression headed his way. That sort of upside is all we can ask for, especially when he gets to face a dreadful offense like the Giants. So far this season, San Francisco ranks 28th in OPS, 27th in runs scored and 25th in xwOBA. Vegas thinks this will be a pitcher's duel too, as Syndergaard enters this matchup as a -150 favorite with a total of 7.
Votto has had a terrible two-year stretch but recent results would indicate that he's starting to find his form. Over his last seven games, Votto is 14-for-30 at the plate en route to a .467 average. The counting statistics have been nice too, with Votto collecting three doubles and eight runs scored in that span. That's the Votto we've been waiting for all season and it's hard to overlook a hot stretch from such a talented player. For his career. Votto is posting a .424 OBP and .405 wOBA and he'll eventually get closer to those averages.
Thames is always in play against left-handers, as he generally finds himself in the heart of the order in these circumstances. It's really no surprise when looking at his numbers, with Thames posting an .877 OPS and .519 SLG against righties since the beginning of 2017. The powerful left-hander comes into this matchup in the midst of a six-game hitting streak too, as he's posting a 1.278 OPS in that span while collecting two homers, seven runs scored and four RBI. Pablo Lopez' 4.99 ERA makes him a guy we want to stack against too in a hitter's haven like Miller Park.
For you season-long owners, Odor could be a sneaky pick-up with three games against the Orioles. With that in mind, we absolutely love him here. We're talking about a guy who generally averages 27 homers and 14 steals per year and that becomes very intriguing against a guy like Dylan Bundy. Not only does Bundy have to pitch in one of the best hitter's parks in the Majors, he also has one of the worst HR rates dating back to 2016. That spells disaster against this dangerous lineup and we also love that Odor gets the platoon advantage in his favor at a dirt-cheap price.
Albies is one of those rare switch-hitters who hits better from the right side but that makes him a really enticing option here. In fact, Albies is posting a .906 OPS against lefties since his call-up while providing a .542 SLG. That's simply elite production from a second baseman and hopefully, it garners him a move up in the lineup. Steven Brault is a guy we definitely want to exploit too, with the southpaw posting a 5.87 ERA and 1.60 WHIP so far this season.
Here's another outlier switch-hitter, as Lindor typically bats better from the right side too. Since the beginning of 2017, Lindor has a .910 OPS against southpaws while providing a .527 SLG. That's all we can ask for from a $3,600 on FanDuel and it's hard to argue with his .225 ISO in that same span. While Smeltzer was incredible in his first start, this is a guy who really wasn't great at the minor league level until this year. In fact, Smeltzer's 5.64 xFIP at Triple-A this season indicates that he was very fortunate and his 4.00 xFIP at Double-A last season shows that he still has some negative regression headed his way.
These price tags on these sites are pretty shocking, as Machado is typically a $4,000 player on FanDuel and a $5,000 player on DraftKings. We're talking about a guy who has posted an .865 OPS or higher in three of his last four years and he'll eventually get back to that form. Getting to face Jared Eickhoff is a good way to start that uptick, with the Philly pitcher allowing at least four runs in four straight starts while raising his ERA from 1.50 to 4.10 in that span.
Donaldson almost always finds his way into our articles when he faces a lefty because he's simply a southpaw smasher. For his career. Donaldson has an OPS north of .950 and a SLG above .560 against left-handed pitching. While he's been struggling recently, it's hard to overlook that sort of steady production. Getting to face a guy like Brault should only help, with the Pirates lefty posting a .378 xwOBA this season to match his ugly ERA and WHIP. That's why the Braves are projected for nearly five runs, which is why we love Albies and Donaldson.
It was tough to find another third baseman but we definitely want to get a few bats in there against Drew Smyly. The Rangers lefty has simply been one of the worst pitchers in the Majors, pitching to a 6.98 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Those numbers are backed up by a .388 xwOBA, which is simply one of the worst marks in the league. That puts all the Orioles in play and Ruiz has actually been better against lefties since his call-up. Ruiz is a nice cheap pivot but a guy like Renato Nunez could be huge considering he's got eight homers over his last 13 games while posting a .984 OPS against lefties so far this season.
Jose Ramirez remains crazy cheap and still has the capability to be a legitimate Top-10 fantasy option.
We can't forget about the Red Sox against a guy like Glenn Sparkman. Is it just me or does Glenn Sparkman sound like a guy who works at an office? He certainly pitched like a guy who should be in an office in his last start, with the KC righty allowing four runs in one inning before being ejected for throwing at Tim Anderson. Over his two starts, Sparkman has allowed eight baserunners and five runs over 4.1 innings. That spells disaster against a potent offense like this, with Boston projected for nearly five runs. Both of these guys are hot right now too, with Benintendi providing two doubles, six RBI, six walks and four steals over his last eight games while Martinez has three doubles and two homers over his last six games.
While this DraftKings price makes him hard to use, it's tough to fade Braun on FanDuel at $2,900. The simple fact is, Braun isn't getting the credit he deserves. Many people think that he's done but his .789 OPS this season would indicate otherwise. While that's down from his .893 career OPS, it's hard for anyone to maintain those lofty numbers this late into their career. We also like that he'll be in the heart of the order in this fantastic spot, with the Brewers being one of the highest projected team totals on the slate.
Straw has been forced into action with half of the Astros roster on the IL and a gem on Sunday shows the sort of upside that he has. The recent call-up collected three hits in the extra-inning victory while stealing three bases. That's obviously incredible and it makes him very hard to overlook at a minimum price tag on FanDuel. If he ends up batting leadoff, he'll likely be the best value play on the board. Those steals are no fluke either, with Straw swiping 70 bases in 131 games at the minors last season.