Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

06/14/2019
James Davis

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 6/15/19

Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

Pitchers

Noah SyndergaardNoah Syndergaard FD - P 9000 DK - SP 9300
Opponent - STL (Michael Wacha) Park - NYM
FD - 34.54 DK - 18.26

The industry was down on Syndergaard thanks to an underwhelming start to the season, but our lineup optimizer has stood by his side. That paid off in his last start against the Rockies, where Thor went seven scoreless innings, fanning seven and allowing just three base runners. Tonight he'll get a very similar match-up with the Cardinals, who rank as slightly worse against RHP this season than the Rockies do while striking out a hair less as well. With Syndergaard it just comes down to his prices, though. He's too cheap for his upside, and when we have signs that he's realizing that upside again he remains a very attractive DFS option.

Aaron NolaAaron Nola FD - P 8800 DK - SP 8500
Opponent - ATL (Sean Newcomb) Park - ATL
FD - 30.73 DK - 16.58

Speaking of 26 year old right handed studs that are off to slow starts to the beginning of the 2019 season, I present to you Mr. Aaron Nola. While the Phillies' ace has taken a step back in a couple of areas this season (most noticeably his lousy 3.99 BB/9), he is still a far more effective pitcher than his 4.58 ERA would suggest. After a tough March and April, Nola bounced back with a 3.29 xFIP in May, which almost identical to 2018's 3.21 number. He seems to have figured out his control issues to some degree while adding a few additional strikeouts, and I'm ready to treat him like an ace again. The issue with playing Nola in cash games is the Braves, of course. They're a top 10 team against right handed pitching, and this doesn't look like a super safe play by any means. Still, Nola has as much upside as anyone, and I'm happy to roll him out if I am just trying to shoot the moon. He's also looking pretty tempting at $8,500 as a pitcher two option on DraftKings.

Jake OdorizziJake Odorizzi FD - P 10000 DK - SP 10900
Opponent - KC (Glenn Sparkman) Park - MIN
FD - 37.61 DK - 20.23

I can't say I'm over the moon about this play if you compare it to just running Syndergaard on FanDuel, but if you're not a believer in Thor Odorizzi is a reasonable plan B. First things first - Odorizzi has run ridiculously hot in terms of his runs allowed this season, and he's far closer to a league average pitcher than he is a sub 2 ERA ace. That being said, he really has improved this year. He's shaved a BB/9 off his walk totals, and pushed his K/9 up near 10. Those are some damned good peripherals. His issue has always been the long ball. His 28.4% ground ball rate was the literal lowest in the Majors last year, and he's sitting at a similar figure this year. It kind of makes him a fun big tournament play. When those fly balls find the warning track you're golden. When they go on the other side of the wall, though, yikes. The Royals are your stock league average offense, but facing Glenn Sparkman gives Odorizzi a little bit of extra win mojo for sure.

ad

Catcher/First Base

J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto FD - C 3100 DK - C 4100
Opponent - ATL (Sean Newcomb) Park - ATL
FD - 10.49 DK - 8.04
While you were away, JT Realmuto was climbing to 19th in the Majors in WAR for 2019. It's true that he's not a conventional bruiser - he's going to generally bring an OBP heavy sub .800 OPS - but catcher these days is just so bad that Realmuto is a real upgrade over basically every option there. Some of that is fielding driven, but Realmuto is the closest thing to a "high floor" catcher as we have these days. Some people will be scared of the Newcomb match-up, but he's just another pitcher who's become overrated thanks to an artificially deflated ERA. His 4.79 xFIP tells us that he's still the average to below average pitcher we're accustomed to, and I'll happily play a few Phils against him today.

C.J. CronC.J. Cron FD - 1B 3700 DK - 1B 4800
Opponent - KC (Glenn Sparkman) Park - MIN
FD - 13.36 DK - 10.15
Cron solidly topped an .800 OPS last season, and on his 3rd team in as many years he's at an .879 number for this year. He's got legit power to all fields, and he's lowered his K rate while improving his walk rate. But this pick isn't as much about CJ as it is the man he'll be going up against. Glenn Sparkman has a classic batting practice repertoire, with a paltry 5.02 K/9 and 39.5% groundball rate. He also barely walks anyone, so the Twins should get plenty of chances for a little yard work here. Cron is a great play in any format.

Max MuncyMax Muncy FD - 1B 3700 DK - 1B/3B 5100
Opponent - CHC (Yu Darvish) Park - LAD
FD - 12.15 DK - 9.05

Okay, I might be giving Muncy extra points after his hilarious reaction to Madison Bumgarner being the biggest baby ever, but he actually is just a good play here. Muncy has continued last year's breakout tour of destruction, posting a healthy .914 OPS through his first 266 plate appearances so far this year. He's oddly been a reverse platoon guy fro his short career, but he's still plenty good against righties with a .853 OPS. Darvish, meanwhile, is a little terrifying whether you're rooting for him or against him. He's a shoo-in for a double digit K rate, but also for a BB/9 over 5. I don't want to go crazy on Dodgers for cash games, but their collective ceiling is, well, through the roof.

Second Base

Somebody cheap, preferably who is batting toward the top of the lineup.
Second base for the main slate is quite simply brutal, and I can't in good conscience make any of these guys seems like phenomenal plays. What I'll be looking for is to grab someone like Nicky Lopez, Jonathan Schoop, or Jose Peraza while getting away from the position cheaply. Cesar Hernandez fits that bill as well. It's just kind of a bad list, and when that happens, I want to be careful not to overspend.

Shortstop

Trevor StoryTrevor Story FD - SS 4700 DK - SS 5500
Opponent - SD (Eric Lauer) Park - COL
FD - 17.96 DK - 13.63
Manny MachadoManny Machado FD - SS 4200 DK - 3B/SS 4400
Opponent - COL (German Marquez) Park - COL
FD - 12.73 DK - 9.69

Taking both sides of the Coors game might seem like a little bit of a cop out, but what do you want? These are two phenomenal plays. I get that Machado has struggled since inking his huge deal with the Dads, but all of a sudden he can't hit in Coors Field? Please. As for Story, taking him at home is always good, and taking him against a mediocre lefty in Lauer should be considered a huge bonus. It hasn't worked out this way this year, but for his career he's got an OPS an astounding .188 points higher against southpaws. The line tonight is a run lower than last night's barn burner, but I'll still be fitting in as many of these guys as I can.

Jean SeguraJean Segura FD - SS 3300 DK - SS 4100
Opponent - ATL (Sean Newcomb) Park - ATL
FD - 10.36 DK - 8.16

Your consolation prize if you just can't afford the Coors guys, but it's really not such a bad one. Like Realmuto, Segura's numbers don't jump off the page at first glance. A SLG heavy .784 OPS isn't going to put Segura into any MVP conversations, but he's still damned solid at another terrible position. He brings just a little power and just a little speed, but you put his package toward the top of a potent Philly offense and he can get you just enough to give him a solid floor in cash games. He also slightly favors left handed pitching, so he'll have that going for him here as well.

Third Base

Nolan ArenadoNolan Arenado FD - 3B 4800 DK - 3B 5500
Opponent - SD (Eric Lauer) Park - COL
FD - 17.77 DK - 13.38

You can't play Arenado every night, but you can pretty much play him every time he's facing a lefty at home. He has an astonishing 1.186 OPS in such situations for his career, and that obvious includes some actual good pitchers as well as guys like Lauer. As for the Padres' starter, his low strikeout/fly ball heavy profile might skate by in Petco, but it really shouldn't in Coors. If there was a night to prioritize the Rockies' slugging third baseman, tonight is probably it. Keep an eye on his status, though, because he's currently listed as day to day with a forearm injury.

Marwin GonzalezMarwin Gonzalez FD - 3B 3200 DK - 3B/OF 4100
Opponent - KC (Glenn Sparkman) Park - MIN
FD - 11.71 DK - 8.96
Miguel SanoMiguel Sano FD - 3B 3600 DK - 3B 4600
Opponent - KC (Glenn Sparkman) Park - MIN
FD - 12.49 DK - 9.3

More fun with Glenn Sparkman! I already gave you the deal on him, so let's talk about Gonzalez and Sano. I'm not sure which you'll get for this game (you may get one, or both), but each is deployable in different circumstances. The switch hitting Gonzalez should be a solid cash game option if he slots in 5th or 6th in the Twins lineup, but you shouldn't get too excited about his upside. Sano is the exact opposite. With a 36.1% K rate this season, Sano certainly ranks as "the Twin Glenn Sparkman is most capable of striking out." But isn't it super tempting to grab Sano against a guy who basically strikes out no one at all? He's a clear cut tournament option for me, and frankly I can see myself getting sucked in for cash games as well.

Outfield

Charlie BlackmonCharlie Blackmon FD - OF 4300 DK - OF 5700
Opponent - SD (Eric Lauer) Park - COL
FD - 15.46 DK - 11.87
Raimel TapiaRaimel Tapia FD - OF 3200 DK - OF 4200
Opponent - SD (Eric Lauer) Park - COL
FD - 11.2 DK - 8.73
More Rockies, so not a whole lt t see here. It's going to be hard to grab Story, Arenado, and Blackmon, and Blackmon might be the odd man out for me there. I really wouldn't mind tacking Tapia and his very reasonable salary on as a part of a Colorado stack, though, so keep an eye on that Rockies' lineup as it comes out. I do love Blackmon for big tournaments, though, since people with exposure to the Rockies are exceedingly likely to prioritize Story and Arenado first.

Joc PedersonJoc Pederson FD - OF 3600 DK - OF 4700
Opponent - CHC (Yu Darvish) Park - LAD
FD - 12.44 DK - 9.31
Pederson is like an absurdist comic of a platoon split guy this season. He's got a 1.010 OPS against righties, and a .375 OPS against lefties. The Dodgers are quick to pull him when southpaws show up, and this really limits his usefulness in cash games given that 2-3 plate appearances is sometimes all you can hope for. That being said, it really looks like he's in a great spot against Darvish at these price points. His 18.1% K rate vs. righties limits Darvish's ability to utilize his best skill, and his patient approach could push Darvish into counts where he can make those mistakes he's become famous for.

Eddie RosarioEddie Rosario FD - OF 4100 DK - OF 5000
Opponent - KC (Glenn Sparkman) Park - MIN
FD - 13.28 DK - 10.22
Another great addition to the Minnesota stacks, Rosario has come into his own as a legit power threat this season, belting 19 homers through 270 plate appearances when it took him 592 to hit 24 last year. Rosario has turned into a solid middle of the order hitter in spite of his atrocious BABIP luck, which has him sitting at almost .070 points below his established levels. If the BABIP luck turns, you could be looking at a .900 OPS guy. I'm still a buyer at these prices, particularly against a gas can like Sparkman.

Also considered: Puig against Mike Minor. Man has it been brutal to watch him so far this season, but he's so cheap that it might just make sense against the left handed Mike Minor.

GRAB A FREE TRIAL OF OUR PROJECTION SYSTEM, AND CHECK OUT DFSR PRO!

Post a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

 

FREE EBOOK

SECRETS TO CRUSHING DAILY FANTASY FOOTBALL!
DON'T SET ANOTHER LINEUP BEFORE YOU READ THIS BOOK.

DOWNLOAD YOUR EBOOK NOW

Our free NBA and MLB eBooks, and picks to your inbox every day!

Your eBooks are on their way!