Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

06/15/2019
Joel Bartilotta

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 6/16/19

Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.


Weather has been fairly kind to us recently but Mother Nature is wreaking havoc on this slate. In fact, nearly half of the games have rain in their forecast. The home teams we need to focus in on are Chicago, Baltimore, Colorado, Washington, Atlanta and New York. That's a ton of weather issues and it'll be key to monitor forecasts before submitting lineups. 

Pitchers

Trevor BauerTrevor Bauer FD - P 11300 DK - SP 11200
Opponent - DET (Spencer Turnbull) Park - DET
FD - 38.85 DK - 21.18

Bauer has been a slight disappointment for season-long owners this season but this matchup is a recipe for success. The reason for that is because Bauer should be in for a ton of strikeouts, facing an offense like this. Not only does Detroit rank 29th in runs scored and 27th in wOBA, the Tigers also have the worst K rate in the Majors dating back to last season. That's extremely encouraging considering the fact that Bauer has a 29 percent K rate in that span. It's not like Bauer has been terrible either, pitching to a 3.71 ERA and 1.18 WHIP while throwing at least five innings in all 15 of his starts. Vegas agrees with this assessment, as they have the Indians as a -165 favorite with the Tigers projected for only 3.5 runs. 

Brad PeacockBrad Peacock FD - P 8500 DK - SP 8800
Opponent - TOR (Trent Thornton) Park - HOU
FD - 35.11 DK - 18.9

Peacock has quietly been one of the best pitchers in the league over the last month. In fact, Peacock has generated a 2.01 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over his last seven starts while striking out 45 batters across 40.1 innings. Those are obviously elite numbers and it's scary to think that he has the best offense in the league behind him. That's why he enters this game as a -240 favorite. Facing the Blue Jays is simply the icing on the cake, with Toronto ranking 27th in runs scored, 28th in wOBA and 21st in K rate. 

Our projection model loves James Paxton against the Chicago White Sox as well. It's also hard to argue with using Hyun Jin-Ryu, as he leads the league in nearly every pitching statistic. 

ad

Catcher/First Base

Joey VottoJoey Votto FD - 1B 3100 DK - 1B 4000
Opponent - TEX (Ariel Jurado) Park - CIN
FD - 12.91 DK - 9.67

The Votto hatred has gone too far for my liking and recent results would indicate that he's starting to recapture some of his MVP form. Over his last 15 games, Votto is providing a .387 AVG and .966 OPS. That's the stud first baseman that we've become accustomed to and these sites are pricing him like a back end shortstop. What really adds to his intrigue here is the fact that he gets to face a righty, with Votto posting a .435 career OBP and .977 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. 

Paul GoldschmidtPaul Goldschmidt FD - 1B 3400 DK - 1B 4100
Opponent - NYM (Jason Vargas) Park - NYM
FD - 13.68 DK - 10.3

Goldy is another guy who has been disappointing for season-long owners but we're playing DFS here people! We don't have to worry about anything that's happened before and we need to take that into consideration for Goldschmidt. This guy has been nails against lefties throughout his career, posting a 1.008 OPS against southpaws. That's why Goldy is typically a $5,000 on both sites, as we're getting quite a bargain here. Jason Vargas is definitely a guy we want to exploit too, pitching to a 5.02 ERA and 1.40 WHIP since the beginning of last season. 

If you're in need of a catcher, paying up for Gary Sanchez is a great idea against Odrisamer Despaigne

Second Base

Derek DietrichDerek Dietrich FD - 2B 2900 DK - 1B/2B 4400
Opponent - TEX (Ariel Jurado) Park - CIN
FD - 11.96 DK - 9.15

This DraftKings price makes Dietrich a tough sell but getting him below $3,000 on FanDuel is an absolute gift. This is one of those cases where he's a must-use against righties and a dodge against lefties. So far this season, Dietrich has a 1.008 OPS against righties, thanks to a .654 SLG. That means he's one of the best power hitters in the league when facing a righty and it really makes this price mind-blowing, considering all 17 of his homers have come against righties. Ariel Jurado is not a guy we need to fear either, with the Texas righty owning a 4.57 career xFIP. 

Kike HernandezKike Hernandez FD - 2B 3000 DK - 2B/OF 6400
Opponent - CHC (Jose Quintana) Park - LAD
FD - 10.7 DK - 8.08

Anytime the Dodgers face a lefty, there's a handful of players that are worth considering. One of the main guys is Kike Hernandez. This guy usually bats in the heart of the order against southpaws and it's easy to see why when looking at his numbers. Hernandez has an .843 OPS against lefties since the beginning of 2017. That's all you can ask for from someone priced so cheaply and he's going to be tough to fade if he bats leadoff like he occasionally does against southpaws. 

Gleyber Torres homered on Saturday and could be a key piece to a Yankee stack. 

Shortstop

Trevor StoryTrevor Story FD - SS 4800
Opponent - SD (Nick Margevicius) Park - COL
FD - 18.63 DK - 14.14

Alright, there's a baseball game being played at Coors Field, so you know what that means. It's time to get some Rockies into our build and Story is always a huge part of that. For his career, Story has an OPS north of 1.000 against lefties and an OPS just shy of that number at home. That equates to an OPS above 1.200 when he faces a lefty at home and that alone puts him in play, no matter the price. Facing Nick Margevicius is huge too, with the San Diego lefty pitching to a 5.02 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. That's why the Rockies are projected for seven runs, which is the highest total of any team on the slate. 

Didi GregoriusDidi Gregorius FD - SS 3200 DK - SS 4100
Opponent - CHW (Odrisamer Despaigne) Park - CHW
FD - 12.06 DK - 9.24

We have to get some Yankees into our build and Gregorius may be the best value of the bunch. His return from the IL has been prosperous to say the least, with Gregorius providing a .364 AVG and .909 OPS. That's pretty much the guy that we've seen since he put on the pinstripes, with Gregorius posting an .814 OPS since 2017. A lot of that damage has been done against righties too, with the NY shortstop posting an .855 OPS against right-handers in that span. Odrisamer Despaigne's 5.25 ERA and 1.59 WHIP since 2016 only adds fuel to our fire when we think about stacking the Yankees today.

Stacking Red Sox is going to be popular on this slate and Xander Boegarts would be a huge part of that. 

Third Base

Nolan ArenadoNolan Arenado FD - 3B 4800
Opponent - SD (Nick Margevicius) Park - COL
FD - 18.44 DK - 13.89

Let's keep the Rockies rolling against Margevicius. Arenado is actually our highest projected player on the slate and he's worth using at pretty much any price. The reason for that is because the slugging third baseman is posting a 1.236 OPS against lefties since 2017. He also has a 1.077 OPS at home in that span, which equates to nearly a 1.500 OPS at home against a lefty. Those are Barry Bonds-like numbers and it makes him tough to fade against an arm like this, despite the lofty price tag. 

Eugenio SuarezEugenio Suarez FD - 3B 3300 DK - 3B 4400
Opponent - TEX (Ariel Jurado) Park - CIN
FD - 12.58 DK - 9.45

It's clear that we love the Reds on this slate, as we simply believe that Jurado has some negative regression headed his way. While his 3.02 ERA and 1.27 WHIP are solid numbers, his 4.71 career xFIP and 4.87 SIERA indicates that he's been pretty lucky this season. That's why we want as many Cincinnati bats as possible, hitting in a hitter's haven like Great American Ballpark. Suarez would be a huge part of that, as his .493 SLG, .235 ISO and .854 OPS since 2017 makes him one of the most dangerous hitters in the league. 

The Dodgers face a lefty, so that means David Freese should be right in the heart of their order at a great price. 

Outfield

Mookie BettsMookie Betts FD - OF 4200 DK - OF 4800
Opponent - BAL (John Means) Park - BAL
FD - 16.47 DK - 12.53

J.D. MartinezJ.D. Martinez FD - OF 4300 DK - OF 5400
Opponent - BAL (John Means) Park - BAL
FD - 16.02 DK - 12.03

These guys are always in play, especially against a lefty. While Betts has struggled against lefties so far this season, he still has a career OPS approaching 1.000 against them. J.D has been even better, posting a 1.149 OPS  against southpaws since the beginning of 2017. That's why both of these guys finished Top-5 in fantasy points per game last season and they're always worth paying up for in these circumstances. While John Means has had a good year up to this point, it's hard to argue for him with his 4.96 xFIP screaming regression and Boston projected for more than five runs, scoring at least seven in three straight games. 

Raimel TapiaRaimel Tapia FD - OF 3000 /
Opponent - SD (Nick Margevicius) Park - COL
FD - 11.62 DK - 9.06

Tapia hasn't been playing a whole lot against lefties since Charlie Blackmon's return but he would be a heck of a value if he does enter the lineup. The reason for that is because of his recent form, with Tapia picking up a hit in 18 of his last 23 starts. The fact that the Rockies have played some long games the last two nights adds to the probability of Tapia starting and being right in the heart of their order. That alone would put Tapia in play, as he's really the only guy on this team who's cheap. 

Khris DavisKhris Davis FD - OF 3600 DK - OF 3900
Opponent - SEA (Mike Leake) Park - OAK
FD - 13.4 DK - 9.97

Davis is hard to fade when he gets hot and he's starting to find his bat. Not only does he have multi-hit games in four of his last six fixtures, he also has two homers in that span. Getting the power stroke back is huge for a guy like this, who actually leads the Majors in home runs since 2015. Striking out is really the only worrisome aspect when picking Davis and that K upside is lowered big time against a guy like Mike Leake, who has a career K rate below 20 percent. That's why Davis is one of the best values on the board, as he should be well above $4,000 on both sites. 

GRAB A FREE TRIAL OF OUR PROJECTION SYSTEM, AND CHECK OUT DFSR PRO!

Post a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

 

FREE EBOOK

SECRETS TO CRUSHING DAILY FANTASY FOOTBALL!
DON'T SET ANOTHER LINEUP BEFORE YOU READ THIS BOOK.

DOWNLOAD YOUR EBOOK NOW

Our free NBA and MLB eBooks, and picks to your inbox every day!

Your eBooks are on their way!