Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 6/27/19
Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.
Aaron Nola FD - P 8700 DK - SP 10700
Opponent - NYM (Zack Wheeler) Park - PHI
FD - 31.74 DK - 17.29
The pitching on the early slate is not great so I will turn to the most talented pitcher in Aaron Nola. He has struggled early this season with a 4.55 ERA but the good news is that he sits with a 3.84 xFIP and both his xwOBA(.324) and xSLG(.412) are lower than his wOBA and SLG. He has also sustained an above-average strikeout rate(25.6%) and while the matchup is neutral at best, Nola is my core pitcher in all formats considering the other options and the reasonable price tag.
We get just four games on the main slate but get two aces to choose from and one is the clear choice for cash games and he isn't playing in Coors Field. Both pitchers are early -175 favorites on the road but Strasburg gets the edge facing the Marlins in a game with the lowest total on the slate. That same Marlins has struggled to score runs all season(29th overall) and has been just as bad lately scoring just 45 over the last two weeks(3.2 per game). While they have been slightly worse against lefties in wOBA and wRC+, they have struck out close to 5% more against right-handed pitching. I will have exposure to Strasburg in all formats.
Also Consider: Walker Buehler(LAD) as a contrarian GPP pivot going into Coors to face the Rockies
There is no line for this game at the moment but I would bet(lol) the Braves will be -140 to -160 road favorites and love the spot for their offense today. It starts at first base with one of the most consistent and productive players, not only at his position but in all of baseball. With his in 19 of 23 games in June, he entered last night with an elite .311/.398/.593 slash line with 21 home runs and 61 RBI. He now faces a pitcher in Tyler Chatwood who is getting another spot start and he has really struggled against lefties giving up a .394 wOBA, 1.1 HR/9, with a 5.38 xFIP since the start of last season. Freeman is expensive but definitely worth every penny and in play in all formats.
Also Consider: Rhys Hoskins(PHI) as the 6th most expensive option at his position on DraftKings
Matt Beaty FD - 1B 2800 DK - 1B/OF 4200
Opponent - COL (Peter Lambert) Park - COL
FD - 12.65 DK - 9.69
On the main slate, the position is a little scarce at the top which makes the value with Beaty stand out even more. The biggest thing is the major park upgrade as the Dodgers head into Coors to start a four-game series on Thursday. Beaty hasn't been great, by any means, but has been consistent for a rookie hitting .311 and while the OBP(.329) is low due to a 2.6% walk rate, he also only strikes out16% of the time. Take the value at a somewhat weak position and move on.
After a slow start to the season, Albies was moved down in the lineup and has quickly turned his season around. Since the start of June(23 games), he has been on fire posting a .337/.408/.616 slash line and flashed some upside with five home runs. Like I mentioned with Freeman above, the Braves lefties have a great matchup as Tyler Chatwood has really struggled in the split. All things considered, Albies is in play in all formats.
The Dodgers are clearly the chalk team on this slate but top the salary at almost every position which has me using them mostly in GPP formats. While not much of a discount at this position, I will mostly turn to the D-Backs for cash tonight and it starts with one of the hottest players in the league. He got the day off yesterday but ended up pinch hitting which technically ended his streak of eight straight multi-hit games and he also has multi-hit efforts in 11 of his last 13 games overall. He now gets a plus matchup against a struggling Tyler Beede and his 6.96 ERA/5.17 xFIP. Outside of Coors, Marte is my top pay up at any position.
Also Consider: Joe Panik(SF) as a punt play if back in the leadoff spot
The matchup is neutral at best as Segura hasn't been as good against righties but it is hard to ignore the value, especially on DraftKings, where Segura is 9th in pricing. He was in a mini-slump at the end of May/start of June but has been better lately with hits in seven of his last eight games with two doubles and three home runs. The Phillies have been scoring in this series and Segura hits right in front of Harper and Hoskins giving him a ton of opportunities to see good pitches and score runs once on base.
Also Consider: J.P. Crawford(SEA)
Chris Taylor FD - SS 3400 DK - OF/SS 5300
Opponent - COL (Peter Lambert) Park - COL
FD - 12.39 DK - 9.5
David Fletcher FD - SS 2700 DK - 3B/OF 3900
Opponent - OAK (Tanner Anderson) Park - LAA
FD - 8.42 DK - 6.63
At shortstop, I will be going two ways on the main slate. On DraftKings, I won't be paying up for Taylor who has much better splits against righties but on FanDuel, he is a nice value playing in Coors. He also comes in hit with hits in five straight and eight of his last nine games with five multi-hit efforts, four doubles, and three home runs. Get it while it's hot! Fletcher is the salary relief play I will use, especially on DraftKings. He has built on his 2018 season but dropping his K rate down to 6.9% which has given him a very consistent .294/.352/.411 slash line with slightly above average 108 wRC+ on the season.
Kris Bryant FD - 3B 3800 DK - 3B/OF 4600
Opponent - ATL (Bryse Wilson) Park - CHC
FD - 11.29 DK - 8.49
Danny Santana FD - 3B 3400 DK - 2B/OF 5100
Opponent - DET (Spencer Turnbull) Park - DET
FD - 10.31 DK - 7.9
Third base is a bit ugly from a cash game perspective outside of these two and with their differing prices on the two sites, I will be splitting them today. On DraftKings, I will take the discount and roll out Bryant who gets a plus matchup against Bryse Wilson who was called up to make his first start since the end of March where he walked four and gave up four earned runs to the Phillies. Bryant is also quietly putting together another solid season as he went into last night with a .282/.392/.527 slash line. On FanDuel, if you need the extra $400, Danny Santana checks almost every box. He is a switch hitter who is much better against righties, facing Turnbull who struggles more against lefties, and he has also been hot with hits in nine straight games.
I wrote him up yesterday and while he let us down with an 0 for 4, I am going back to the well on Thursday. It comes down to price as the Coors game really skews things on a small four-game slate. He also gets a ton of opportunity hitting leadoff in front of Trout and enters this game with a solid .296/.347/.502 slash line. He is my top PTS/$ play at the position tonight.
Also Consider: Matt Chapman(OAK)
Nicholas Castellanos FD - OF 3000 DK - OF 3900
Opponent - TEX (Ariel Jurado) Park - DET
FD - 12.11 DK - 9.26
JaCoby Jones FD - OF 3000 DK - OF 3600
Opponent - TEX (Ariel Jurado) Park - DET
FD - 7.89 DK - 6.1
While the Tigers offense has literally been the worst in baseball over the last month(league-low 89 runs) these two have actually been excellent values. Let's start with Castellanos who the system absolutely loves from a PTS/$ perspective and here is why I agree. He went into Wednesday night's action with hits in 17 of his last 19 games and while the power numbers have been down, he has provided a high floor(.281 avg, .373 OBP last 30 days). Jones has made his way up to the leadoff spot and is still very affordable on both sites. He went into last night with multi-hit games in four straight and has posted an impressive .341/.400/.634 slash line over the last 30 days. Pairing these two together gives you roster flexibility and make great cash game plays today.
Also Consider: Christian Yelich/Ryan Braun/Ben Gamel(MIL) against Mike Leake who has already given up 22 HR on the season and has given up 38%+ hard contact to both sides of the plate or Shin-Soo Choo/Nomar Mazara(TEX) against Spencer Turnbull who has struggled against left-handed bats
If you can't afford Marte in cash games, Peralta is an excellent alternative to get exposure to the Diamondbacks. They get a terrific matchup against Tyler Beede who has struggled in his second attempt at the majors(2 starts in 2018), especially against lefties with 6.04 xFIP while giving up a .422 wOBA/.611 SLG in the split. If you want to talk about consistency, go check out Peralta's numbers in each of the last three years as he entered last night with a .293/.356/.489 slash line. He will beth first outfielder in my lineups in cash games and will be pairing him with Dyson and Marte a ton in GPP formats as well.