Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 7/17/19
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The main slate gives us a nice selection of pitchers and at the top of the list for me is Mike Clevinger. He got off to a hot start this season but ended up hitting the IL in early April with a back injury and after returning in June was hit hard and ended up back on the IL with an ankle sprain. He again struggled in his return(7 ER to BAL) but has been fantastic in two starts since allowing just four hits to both the Royals and Twins striking out 15(36.6%) and walking just two(4.9%) batters. Tonight, he is in a great spot as a -240 favorite going against a Tigers team who has been better in the short term(113 wRC+ last 14 days) but still rank 28th in runs scored(143) and 26th in wRC+(87) since the start of June. Fire up Clevinger in all formats.
Since returning from a stint in High A(did not pitch) in an attempt to limit his innings, Paddack has been excellent allowing just three combined earned runs over 16 2/3 innings. It was a bit concerning seeing just one strikeout in his return but he rebounded nicely with 14 over his next two starts(vs STL, @ LAD) while walking just two. He now gets a plus matchup as a -155 favorite against a Marlins team who can be very closely compared to the above mentioned Tigers. They have been better lately but overall are the only team that ranks worse than the tigers in almost every category in almost all splits. Looking at the top of the salary, I love the price discount from Cole, especially on FanDuel and in cash games making Paddack a core play for me in all formats.
Also Consider: Gerrit Cole(HOU) as a GPP pivot on both sites as the most expensive option in a below-average matchup(LAA only K's 18% vs. RH pitching) but is easily the best pitcher on the slate or Eduardo Rodriguez(BOS) in a plus matchup vs. the Blue Jays
Since scoring just one run in the first game back from the All-Star Break, the Dodgers have gone off scoring 42 runs over their last four games(10.5 per game) and while that obviously isn't sustainable I love the spot again tonight. They face a struggling Nick Pivetta who has given up 22 earned runs over his last five starts pushing his season ERA up to 5.81 for the season. The power is what I am after here and Pivetta routinely delivers that giving up multiple home runs in four of his last five and in seven of his 12 starts this season. Pederson hits leadoff in front of a barrage of power bats behind him and while he is fairly priced on DraftKings, he is a lock for me on FanDuel in these plus matchups until they adjust his price accordingly.
Jose Abreu FD - 1B 3500 DK - 1B 4200
Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - KC
FD - 11.44 DK - 8.75
Abreu makes an excellent pivot giving you $400 of salary relief on DraftKings and being $700 more than Joc on FanDuel will have him very low owned and perfect for GPP formats. He has just three hits in his last five games but gets a great spot to break out against Danny Duffy who has given up 28 earned runs in his last eight starts(5.86 ERA/5.43 xFIP) with nine home runs(17% HR/FB) and a 42% hard contact rate against. Abreu's biggest struggle overall has come against righties but lock him in against lefties where he enters with a .400 wOBA and 155 wRC+ in the split.
Also Consider: Christian Walker(ARI)
Looking at the raw points projections tonight, Muncy leads all second basemen by a wide margin and take out the Coors game and he is a Top 15 player overall. While he is expensive and back down in the order, he has been a monster at the plate and is second to only Cody Bellinger in home runs on the team and is also Top 10 in the league in that category. Don't overthink it here, ride the hot team in another plus matchup.
Brock Holt FD - 2B 2400 DK - 2B 3900
Opponent - TOR (Aaron Sanchez) Park - BOS
FD - 10.24 DK - 7.87
If you are paying up at other positions and can't quite get to Muncy, I prefer to go the value route and roster Brock Holt. He comes cheap as he hits down at the bottom of the Red Sox order but has been consistent with hits in five straight and 12 of his last 13 starts pushing his average up to .330 and on-base percentage up to .376 on the season. I mentioned the Red Sox 1-2-3 tonight but it is going to be tough to fit so adding Holt to a semi-wrap around stack helps you get there. I will consider him in all formats.
Also Consider: Mike Brosseau(TB) who is hitting higher in the lineup and enjoying some early success since his debut
There is definitely an abundance of great matchups for bats tonight and the Royals get one of them. They are just slight favorites(-120) at this time but the game has a monster 10.5 total in large part because of the pitchers, Ivan Nova being one them. Outside of a couple of outlier starts against the Cubs, he has been struggling lately allowing three or more earned runs in six of his last eight starts but the biggest issue has been the long ball as he has also allowed 11 home runs in those eight starts. Mondesi has been solid at the top of the lineup since returning from injury in early July with hits in eight of 11 games. I love Bogaerts tonight at short but he is just too expensive for cash making Mondesi my top PTS/$ play at the position, especially on FanDuel in the mid $3K range.
**Update - After writing this during the game last night, Mondesi was injured and is day to day. **
Corey Seager FD - SS 3000 DK - SS 4400
Opponent - PHI (Nick Pivetta) Park - PHI
FD - 12.26 DK - 9.34
Seager struggled in his return from the IL going 0 for 11 in his first three games but appears to be getting the timing back with three hits over his last two games. For me, it is a buy-low situation on a good hitter in a plus matchup who is still underpriced coming back from injury. He has been hitting down in the lineup but if he were to get a bump up the order it would likely push his PTS/$ near the top of the position tonight.
Also Consider: Leury Garcia(CHW) who leads off for the White Sox and has much stronger splits vs. left-handed pitching(.354 wOBA, 124 wRC+)
The Red Sox top the implied run ranks and make a great team to start your builds with, in all formats tonight. It starts with the matchup against a struggling Aaron Sanchez who has now given up four or more earned runs in seven of his last eight starts and sits with an ugly 1.75 WHIP, 6.22 ERA, and 5.39 xFIP. I will start with Devers who has been arguably the MVP of the team(1A and 1B with Bogaerts) and playing some of his best baseball of the season lately with a .329/.376/.610 slash line since the start of June with nine home runs and 150 wRC+. The Red Sox 1-2-3 is going to be tough to fit all together in cash games with one of the pitchers I mentioned above but you should easily be able to get two of the three of them rostered.
DJ LeMahieu FD - 3B 3700 DK - 2B/3B 4300
Opponent - TB (Yonny Chirinos) Park - NYY
FD - 11.84 DK - 9.2
Devers and Rendon are the clear top options at third on this slate but I was still a little surprised to see Lemahieu, who is third in the league in average(.331) as the ninth priced player at the position on a smaller nine-game slate. He hits leadoff for a very powerful Yankees lineup that sits third in the league in runs scored on the season and while he doesn't get a top matchup, I will take the discounted price in cash games and go with a more balanced lineup build without giving up much of the floor for fantasy points.
I talked about the elite matchup for the Red Sox above and in the outfield, I am loading up on Mookie Betts who has finally started to heat up after an MVP season hangover. Over the last month(22 games), he has slashed .326/.429/.543 and while he has just two home runs in that time, he has scored a league-high 29 runs in that time with an added five stolen bases. He has a bit better value on FanDuel but is most definitely in play in all formats with everything considered.
Alex Gordon FD - OF 2900 DK - OF 4300
Opponent - CHW (Ivan Nova) Park - KC
FD - 10.69 DK - 8.2
Jorge Soler FD - OF 3500 DK - OF 4500
Opponent - CHW (Ivan Nova) Park - KC
FD - 11.68 DK - 8.81
I love the spot for the Royals tonight going up against Ivan Nova and if you can't afford Mondesi or Merrifield in cash games, these two outfielders make excellent pivots. It starts with Gordon who extended his hit streak to four games last night and has been very consistent over the last month hitting .295 with a .386 on-base percentage. Soler hasn't sustained the same consistency for as long but in the short term he has been excellent with hits in 10 of his last 12 games(going into Tuesday night) with four home runs and 11 RBI. For cash games, if you are looking for just one, I lean Gordon with his consistency and hitting higher in the order but have both down as top PTS/$ plays in the outfield tonight.