Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 7/19/19
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This is one of the coolest slates of the season. We have aces all across the board with almost every guy in a supreme matchup. That means it's dealer's choice in terms of who you want to play but we're going to give you our two favorite options.
Like always, check weather before submitting lineups.
This might be the safest play of the season. We're talking about a guy who has at least 31 FanDuel points in all but two starts this season, as he leads the NL in both ERA and WHIP. His numbers come out to a 1.78 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. which is scary because he has an ERA and WHIP below 1.00 at home this season. That makes this FanDuel price truly mind-boggling, as this matchup is arguably the best in baseball too. In fact, the Marlins currently rank bottom-three in runs scored, OPS, wOBA and xwOBA. That's why Ryu enters this matchup as a -310, with Miami projected for only three runs.
Many people don't consider Price an ace but maybe they should. Not only does he have an impressive 3.15 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season, he's also got a 3.25 ERA and 1.14 WHIP for his career. That makes him one of the most reliable pitchers in this volatile pitching environment and he makes for a fantastic pivot from all of the five-figure studs. His recent form is what's really encouraging, with Price scoring at least 33 FanDuel points in eight of his last nine games. Facing Baltimore is hard to overlook too, with the Orioles sitting 21st in K rate, 27th in runs scored, 28th in OPS and dead-last in xwOBA. That's why we anticipate Price entering this game as a -200 favorite.
There are so many good pitching options on this slate. Justin Verlander (FD $10700 DK $11400) faces a Texas team who ranks dead-last in K rate. Jacob deGrom (FD $10600 DK $10600) faces a terrible Giants offense in a pitcher-friendly stadium like Oracle Park. Shane Bieber (FD $10800 DK $10400) squares off with a dreadful Royals offense at home. If you're looking for someone cheap, Tyler Mahle (FD $6200 DK $6000) has been better than his numbers would indicate and faces a Cardinals offense who is struggling mightily right now.
What is FanDuel thinking? They continue to price Joc below $3,000 and it simply doesn't make any sense. We're talking about the leadoff hitter for one of the best lineups in baseball, who's absolutely destroyed right-handed pitching. That's evident by the fact that he has all 21 of his homers against righties en route to a .555 SLG and .900 OPS. That means he should be $3,500 on FD and we're going to keep playing him until he gets closer to that number.
Bell is simply one of the best hitters in the Majors right now. While he is mired in a bit of a slump, it has lowered his price tag to this intriguing number. We're still talking about a guy with a .623 SLG and .990 OPS for the year. What makes him scary here is that he gets to bat from the left side, with Bell generating a 1.032 OPS against right-handers this season. Jake Arrieta is really struggling right now too, pitching to a 6.07 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over his last eight starts.
If you're in need of a catcher, we love the Indians, which obviously includes Roberto Perez.
We really need to start taking notice of this kid. Let's start with his absurd Triple-A numbers, with Hiura generating a .330 AVG and 1.088 OPS at that level this season. That appears to have carried over to the Majors, with Hiura hitting .323 while providing a .992 OPS. Much of that has come recently, with Hiura batting .400 over his last 13 games while generating a 1.254 OPS in that span. He's simply one of the hottest hitters in the game and he's definitely in play against Taylor Clarke's 6.21 ERA and 1.57 WHIP.
Don't look now but Altuve is starting to find it! Over his last 13 games, Altuve is hitting .367 while providing a .937 OPS in that span. What's also encouraging is that he has two steals in that stretch, which is something that's been missing in his game all season long. We're still talking about a perennial All-Star who regularly hits .320 and it wouldn't be surprising to see him continue this hoit streak for the final two months. While Mike Minor is a tough matchup, we love Altuve's 1.267 OPS against lefties so far this season.
Ceasar Hernandez is a nice, cheap pivot in a quality matchup.
The Indians have really turned things around recently and Lindor is a major reason why. Over his last nine games, Lindor is hitting.282 while collecting two doubles, three homers and eight RBI. That's why this is one of the Top-10 offenses in the Majors for the month of July and it's a scary thought that he and Jose Ramirez are getting hot at the same time. What makes him an enticing option on this slate is that he gets to face a righty, with Lindor accruing a .521 SLG and .903 OPS against right-handers since 2017.
We have to get at least one Tampa bat in there against Reynaldo Lopez. The reason for that is because the Rays are projected for five runs here, with Lopez pitching to a 5.97 ERA and 1.54 WHIP this season. Those dreadful numbers put all of the Tamps bats in play and Adames makes for a great punt with the potential he provides. Over his last five games, Adames has four doubles en route to a .909 OPS, which is not the only time he's gone on a hot streak recently. On the last 10 days of June, Adames had a .378 OBP and 1.106 OPS, as a minor slump in between then and now has lowered his price tag to this tempting number.
LeMahieu has always provided an elite batting average and he's truly proving that he can produce outside of Coors Field. So far this season, D.J. has a .331 AVG and .886 OPS. Those are some of the best numbers of his career and he'll surely be motivated here against his former team. Getting the platoon advantage against Kyle Freeland is the icing on the cake, with LeMahieu generating a .922 OPS against lefties while Freeland is pitching to a 7.39 ERA and 1.61 WHIP this season. That's why the Yankees are projected for six runs, thus making them one of the most stackable teams on this slate.
This is strictly a punt play, as Moran has had success against righties throughout his career. In fact, the slugging third baseman has a .295 AVG, .498 SLG and .840 OPS against right-handers this season. That's pretty much on par with his three-year averages and he's truly one of the most underrated assets in fantasy baseball. We obviously like him against a struggling pitcher like Arrieta too, looking at the previous Bell write-up and Arrieta's ugly statistics.
We already discussed that we like the Indians earlier in this article and these are two of our favorite plays on the board. This offense has been doing some serious damage recently and that should continue against Mike Montgomery. The recent trade acquisition had some unsightly numbers this season before being moved, pitching to a 5.67 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. That is why we really like the Indians, with these two outfielders being major pieces to the puzzle.
Mercado is simply one of the hottest hitters in the game, collecting three runs, three homers, six RBI and two steals over his last three games. It also gives him the platoon advantage from the right side but that's way more important for a guy like Luplow. So far this season, Luplow is generating a .667 SLG and 1.069 OPS against left-handers and that doesn't even include a homer on Thursday against a lefty. Those absurd numbers make this price shocking and these Indians make for a great contrarian stack.
Harper has had a disappointing season for his new club but he's starting to turn things around. Over his last 22 games. Harer has collected 15 runs scored, six doubles, five homers, 19 RBI and 16 walks en route to a .445 OBP and OPS north of 1.000. We're still talking about a guy who has a career OBP well above .400 against right-handed pitching and this might be the stud we see for the rest of the season. Jordan Lyles is struggling big time right now too, pitching to a 10.13 ERA and 1.94 WHIP over his last seven starts.