Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – Wyndham Championship
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.
With just one week left in the regular season, the PGA Tour heads to Sedgefield Country Club for the Wyndham Championship. For those golfers outside the Top 125 in the FedEx Cup standings, it will be their final opportunity to play their way into the Northern Trust next week. For reference, I have added the FedEx Cup rankings to the sheet.
Sedgefield CC is a Donald Ross designed Par 70 that is just over 7,100 yards. Off the tee, golfers will see narrow fairways with risk-reward options on some holes in terms of how much you want to challenge the water/creeks. This, as designed by Ross, puts a ton of emphasis on not only hitting the fairway but positioning yourself for a clear approach shot. After a strong mix of ball striking stats in my model, I will be adding some scrambling and a lot of weight to birdie or better % as the average winning score has been -20 over the last five years. For Par 4 scoring, I will be looking at the 400-450 yard range as eight of the 12 holes fall into this distance range. There are only two Par 5's on the course but they are, by far, the easiest holes on the course and with a ton of eagles made on these holes, I will be looking at Par 5 Birdie or Better % not just Par 5 scoring.
With that, let's jump in and look at some course info and trends and then some core plays in each price range.
Sedgefield Country Club
Par 70 - 7,127 yards
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
Previous Five Winners
- 2018 - Brandt Snedeker(-21)
- 2017 - Henrik Stenson(-22)
- 2016 - Si Woo Kim(-21)
- 2015 - Davis Love III(-17)
- 2014 - Camillo Villegas(-17)
Top Stats in the Model
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Fairways Gained/Driving Accuracy
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Par 4 Performance 400-450 Yards
- Birdie or Better %
Early Look Weather Forecast
Top Tier Targets
The first name that jumps off the page and also happens to be #1 in my model is Webb Simpson. He checks almost every single box and it starts with course history. Since missing the cut here in his first trip back in 2009, Webb has not only made nine straight cuts here but has a win(2011) and five Top 10's finishes including back to back Top 5's in 2017 and 2018. He now comes into this years even with excellent form coming off a runner-up at the WGC St. Jude with eight straight cuts made going back to April with three Top 5's and six Top 25 finishes. He will be popular this week but, in my opinion, has the highest floor of any player in the $10K+ range on DraftKings. I will have exposure in all formats.
It has been another excellent year for young up and coming stars getting their first wins and I am kind of shocked that Morikawa and Wolff beat Hovland to the punch in terms of hoisting a trophy on Tour. While he has not won yet, Hovland has been very consistent following up his T54 at the Travelers(first PGA Tour event) with a T13 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic(Donald Ross course), T13 at the 3M Open, and T16 at the John Deere Classic. The stats match up as well as he ranks(in this field) 6th in Fairways Gained, 4th in SG: Approach, 2nd in Opp Gained, and 5th in Birdie or Better Gained. The only issue is the putting as he has lost strokes in three of four pro events. When he figures out the flat stick he will join the list of PGA Tour winners and it could be as soon as this week. My model on my sheet is skewed a bit with these young guys who have yet to qualify for stats ranks on Tour but on my FNGC custom model using my key stats, Hovland is #1 and is my top PTS$ play in the top tier.
Mid Tier Targets
While the price seems high on Hadwin consider it's less than $1,000 higher than his season average and it is also relative to the field strength. While he hasn't been as consistent as last season when he made 21 of 24 cuts(88%), he has still been solid making 80% of his cuts and has already passed his Top 5 total form last season with five coming into this week. In this field, he ranks 27th in fairways gained, 25th in SG: Approach, 25th in opp gained, and 7th in birdie or better %. He is an excellent play in both cash games with his floor and GPP formats with his Top 10/Top 5 upside.
World Golf Ranking (#72)
Vegas Odds (66/1)
Sticking in the mid-range with another player who can be trusted in cash games, we have Russell Knox. He never really flashes much upside with just two Top 10 finishes this season but he has made 15 of 18 cuts(83%) including four straight coming into this week. He finished T28 here in his last trip in 2017 and fits the course as he is accurate off the tee(17th in fairways gained last 24 rounds), on the approach(8th in SG: APP & 5th in Prox on my sheet), and is an above-average scrambler(33rd in SG: ATG on my sheet). He is another player that is held back by his putting making him best utilized in cash games but should also be lower owned for GPP formats if you want to go that route as well.
World Golf Ranking (#181)
Vegas Odds (140/1)
It's Brice Garnett SZN! No he is not consistent at all missign 11 cuts in 25 stroke-play events but has been trending lately with four straight cuts made including three of his five Top 25 finishes. One of those Top 25's came at the Rocket Mortgage Classic(T17) which was held at Detroit Golf Club which is another Donald Ross design. in this field, Garnett ranks 20th in Strokes Gained: Total on Donald Ross courses(Last 24 rounds) and it makes sense as he is 7th on Tour in driving accuracy. I don't expect another Top 25 finish this week at his price but it is not out of the question as he comes back to Sedgefield with back to back T20 finishes.
World Golf Ranking (#246)
Vegas Odds (100/1)
The first thing that stands out with Taylor when going through the sheet is the fantasy salary/odds differential. He is currently sitting at 100-1 to win which is by far the lowest odds of anyone in this range of pricing on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has just one Top 10 on the season(Zurich team event) but has been consistent making seven straight and 15 of his last 17 cuts in stroke-play events. With that consistency and his low price, I will have exposure to Taylor in all formats allowing me to pay up for multiple top tier players.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for six years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
- Webb Simpson: (AP Photo/LM Otero)