Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 8/7/19
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Wednesday brings a full day of baseball action with varying early slates between the sites and a small four-game main slate. In this article, I will be looking at my core play from the early slate and providing an option to consider for the main slate. Let's get started.
We have two elite pitchers taking the bump on the early slate but with Clevinger likely having to deal with rain in the forecast, the decision is fairly easy at the top. Going back all the way to the end of May, Cole has been out of this world holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 12 of 13 starts while striking out 116(35.4%) and walking just 22(6.7%). While the Rockies have somewhat heated up lately(116 wRC+ last seven days), they have the biggest gap in terms of home/road splits(.284 wOBA, 71 wRC+ on the road) and Cole is an elite ace that has shut down top offenses all season. He is my top pitcher in all formats.
*Update-a rainout last night takes Clevinger off this slate as last night's matchup between Plesac and Jurado will carry over*
Dustin May FD - P 5800 DK - SP 7500
Opponent - STL (Jack Flaherty) Park - LAD
FD - 27.41 DK - 13.83
It was a very positive debut for Dustin May last Friday and while he allowed three earned runs, they came in the fifth inning at the end of his outing. It was also positive seeing him get a bit of a leash as he ended up throwing 97 pitches and despite just three strikeouts he generated over a 50% groundball rate. Today, he arguably gets an even better matchup against a slumping Cardinals team that entered Tuesday night losers of six of their last eight games and have posted a disastrous 60 wRC+ and 27.7% K rate over the last seven days(89 wRC+, 24% K rate last 14 days). May is my top SP2 on DraftKings and also makes an excellent punt play for GPP formats on FanDuel allowing you to load up on whatever stack you wish.
Main Slate Consideration: James Paxton(NYY) who is underpriced considering the slate size and elite matchup against the Orioles
Let's start with Choi who provides us some PTS/$ value on both sites as the price has yet to fully adjust to his new role as the Rays leadoff hitter. He put up a goose egg for us last night but had been very consistent going into Tuesday night with hits in four of his previous five games with three multi-hit efforts. The average(.265) is a little concerning but the reason he is getting a shot as the leadoff hitter is the 12% walk rate and .360 on-base percentage. He is an excellent salary relief option in cash games as a one-off or as a part of a Rays stack in GPP as the Jays have no announced starter and will be running a bullpen game.
Matt Adams FD - 1B 3000 DK - 1B 4600
Opponent - SF (Shaun Anderson) Park - SF
FD - 10.78 DK - 8.13
Looking at the position today, one name that pops up when looking at price differential is Matt Adams. I definitely lean Choi on DraftKings at a $500 discount and leading off but on FanDuel, it is much closer as Adams is just $3K. He doesn't provide us the same safety with a .245 average and .296 on-base percentage but he does provide a ton of power upside with 17 home runs and faces a pitcher in Shaun Anderson who has given up a .357 wOBA and 1.5 home runs per nine to left-handed bats. I love this spot for the Nats and will have plenty of exposure to Adams on FanDuel today.
Main Slate Consideration: Eric Thames(MIL) as a value play with upside facing a pitcher in Trevor Williams who struggles big-time against lefties or Carson Kelly(ARI) at catcher as he has crushed lefties despite a smaller sample size(70 plate appearances).
If you have the extra salary Jose Altuve is our top play from a raw points perspective but will be tough to fit in cash games if playing Gerrit Cole at pitcher today. I will take Ozzie Albies at a big discount on both sites and while he hasn't been quite as hot as Altuve lately, he has still been very good. He is coming off a four-hit effort last night and has hits in 10 of 13 games since jumping back up to the two-hole in the lineup. He is a switch hitter who has been WAY better against lefties with a .417 wOBA, 158 wRC+, and 47% hard contact rate and faces a struggling Martin Perez who has given up four or more earned runs in six of his last nine starts with 10 long balls. Albies is my top play at second base in all formats.
Eric Sogard FD 3600 DK 4700
Opponent - TOR (Wilmer Font) Park - TOR
FD - 7.75 DK - 5.94
I am not seeing a whole lot of value at this time unless you want to punt with Tony Kemp so I will provide a pivot option to Albies. Eric Sogard was traded to the Rays at the end of July and is now facing his old team who will be employing a bullpen day. Since joining the Rays, he has tallied hits in all five starts with six RBI and five runs scored. He hits down in the order and is more expensive than Albies which will almost guarantee a much lower ownership despite a higher floor and very similar ceiling.
While I talked about lefties vs. Anderson above, that doesn't mean we shouldn't target righties as he has a 4.69 xFIP, 1.51 WHIP, and has given up a .336 wOBA and 42% hard contact rate in the split. The Nats get a park downgrade in San Fran but Turner is in a great spot hitting leadoff for a red-hot team(7th with a 112 wRC+ last 14 days) and has been hot himself with hits in 13 of his last 15 games lifting his average up to .285 for the season. I like the floor he provides today for cash games and with his elite speed that boosts his run-scoring upside, he is a great GPP play as well.
Willy Adames FD 2800 DK 3900
Opponent - TOR (Wilmer Font) Park - TOR
FD - 6.91 DK - 5.32
The Rays have also been red-hot lately winning seven of their last eight games scoring six or more runs in each win(55 total) making them a great target for some value. Willy Adames hits at the bottom of the order most nights but shouldn't be ignored as he has been an elite PTS/$ play with hits in eight of his last 10 games with a whopping five home runs. It appears the Jays will open with Wilmer Font and turn it over to Sam Gaviglio for the bulk of the relief and Adames has posted glaring reverse splits this season with an above-average .342 wOBA and 16 wRC+ against righties. He is in play in all formats and best used as part of a wrap-around Rays stack getting exposure to the top bats in the lineup without losing the sequence correlation.
Main Slate Consideration: Nick Ahmed(ARI) who has not only been hot lately but has strong splits against lefties
It was his teammates who took the spotlight last night as the Braves put up 12 runs but it has been Donaldson who has garnered front-page attention lately. Since the All-Star game, he has hits in 19 of 24 games and has posted a .306/.422/.635 slash line and is also running power hot with eight home runs in that time as well. While he has been better against righties this season he has still been above average vs. lefties and has crushed them for his career. He is in play in all formats.
Matt Chapman FD 3400 DK 4000
Opponent - CHC (Jose Quintana) Park - CHC
FD - 11.39 DK - 8.58
This is a pure buy-low GPP play at the position as Chapman has really struggled lately which in turn has helped his salary drop down to near season-low levels. The good news is that he gets a plus matchup against a no more than average Jose Quintana and Chapman has destroyed lefties to the tune of a .395 wOBA, 152 wRC+, and whopping .357 ISO this season. The combination of a value price tag and possible low ownership make him one of my favorite GPP plays on the slate.
Michael Brantley FD - OF 3900 DK - OF 4700
Opponent - COL (Peter Lambert) Park - HOU
FD - 12.82 DK - 9.87
Yordan Alvarez FD - OF 4100 DK - OF 5500
Opponent - COL (Peter Lambert) Park - HOU
FD - 13.14 DK - 9.9
The Astros lead the way in terms of implied runs projections(5.9) today and that says a lot as they play in one of the best pitchers parks in the big leagues. They face rookie Peter Lambert who has flashed some upside but it has mostly been a rocky(no pun intended) start as he sits with a 5.71 ERA/4.34 xFIP. He has given up 11 home runs in 10 starts but the reason I target these two as my top choices are Lambert's splits against lefties(.397 wOBA, .614 SLG, 49% hard contact against). If you are looking at just one of these guys for cash games, I lean Brantley who is cheaper on both sites and has been terrific in his first season with the Stros as he entered Tuesday night with a .320/.379/.516 slash line with 16 home runs and 67 RBI. For upside, the choice is Yordan Alvarez who has made a splash since making his debut with 13 home runs and 16 multi-hit efforts in his first 41 games. Load up on Astros today.
Adam Duvall FD 3500 DK 4500
Opponent - MIN (Martin Perez) Park - MIN
FD - 9.9 DK - 7.46
Jason Heyward FD 3200 DK 4200
Opponent - OAK (Homer Bailey) Park - OAK
FD - 11.9 DK - 9.16
If you are looking to go a more balanced route in the outfield or overall consider these two who stand out today. Duvall as he has been excellent since returning to the big leagues with hits in eight of 11 games with five home runs and has also been strong against southpaws. Heyward more for his opportunity if he is back in the leadoff for the Cubs in a plus matchup against Homer Bailey who has struggled since joining the A's giving up 27 hits and 16 earned runs in his first four starts(6.97 ERA/4.63 xFIP) since being traded.
Main Slate Consideration: Any combination of the Red Sox outfield(Betts, Benintendi, Martinez) at the top of the salary or Trent Grisham(MIL) as a value play