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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

08/10/2019
Joel Bartilotta

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 8/11/19

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It's Sunday and that always makes for a fun slate. What really makes it interesting is the fact that we have many divisional games occurring. That makes these finals games of the series imperative, as it will be one of the final times to gain a game on their counterparts. That means all the studs should show out and that's all we can ask for as DFS players. 

Pitchers

Justin VerlanderJustin Verlander FD - P 12500 DK - SP 12400
Opponent - BAL (Asher Wojciechowski) Park - BAL
FD - 46.89 DK - 27.12

Using Justin Verlander is always a good idea, particularly in a matchup like this. Let's start with the Orioles, as they simply have one of the worst offenses in baseball. That's evident by the fact that they rank 21st in K rate, 26th in runs scored, 27th in OBP, 25th in OPS and 28th in xwOBA. That's truly frightening against a stud like Verlander, who's pitching to a 2.68 ERA and 0.81 WHIP while striking out 206 batters. That's why he enters this matchup as a -380 favorite, which is one of the highest money lines all season. 

Lucas GiolitoLucas Giolito FD - P 9800 DK - SP 10600
Opponent - OAK (Chris Bassitt) Park - CHW
FD - 35.12 DK - 18.12

Finding a second pitcher was a tough task on this slate but it's hard to argue with a guy having a breakout season. Giolito is doing just that, as he's generating a 3.44 ERA and 1.13 WHIP while whiffing 158 batters. What's really impressive about Giolito is how much his swing-and-miss stuff continues to improve, with Gio striking out at least seven batters in four-straight games. That's huge against a righty-heavy offense like this, with Oakland throwing out guys like Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien and Stephen Piscotty. He's a good pitcher two on DraftKings and an interesting upside play on FanDuel as well.

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Catcher/First Base

Paul GoldschmidtPaul Goldschmidt FD - 1B 3700 DK - 1B 4000
Opponent - PIT (Steven Brault) Park - STL
FD - 14.13 DK - 10.64

Goldy has been disappointing for season-long fantasy players but he's too good of a player to be priced this cheaply. We're talking about a guy who has a .426 OBP, .585 SLG and 1.011 OPS against left-handers for his career. Those are simply absurd numbers and his recent form only adds to his intrigue. Over his last 16 games, Goldy has seven homers and 15 RBI en route to a 1.000 OPS. This is not a lefty we need to fear either, with Steven Brault pitching to a 5.19 xFIP and 1.50 WHIP this season. 

Freddie FreemanFreddie Freeman FD - 1B 4400 DK - 1B 5500
Opponent - MIA (Hector Noesi) Park - MIA
FD - 13.55 DK - 10.27

Not many people are talking about it but Freeman should start getting some consideration for NL MVP. I mean, 29 homers, 92 runs scored, 92 RBI and a .307 AVG with this much of the season left speaks for itself, as he's truly in the midst of a career year. The impressive power turnaround is what's most encouraging and he's actually got three homers in his last five games. Getting the platoon advantage against Hector Noesi is simply the icing on the cake, with the Marlins righty pitching to a 5.35 ERA and 1.47 WHIP for his career. 

Robinson Chirinos and Sandy Leon are our highest per-dollar catchers. 

Second Base

Max MuncyMax Muncy FD - 2B 3700 DK -
Opponent - ARI (Mike Leake) Park - LAD
FD - 12.73 DK - 0

Muncy is always in play against right-handers, especially weak ones. Mike Leake is just that, as his 4.44 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over his last eight starts shows just how much he's struggling. He's posting that ugly WHIP despite walking just four batters and it's truly scary to have a contact-pitcher facing a guy like Muncy. We're talking about a breakout second baseman who's generating a .548 SLG and .928 OPS since joining the Dodgers last season. Those numbers are even better against righties. 

Jose AltuveJose Altuve FD - 2B 4300 DK - 2B 5500
Opponent - BAL (Asher Wojciechowski) Park - BAL
FD - 16.32 DK - 12.65

Altuve just homered on Saturday night and that extends Altuve's best stretch of the season. Since the beginning of July, Altuve is hitting .379 while providing a .675 SLG and 1.107 OPS in that span. That's all you can ask for from one of the most talented bats in the game and we have to love him against this nightmarish pitching staff. Not only do the Orioles rank dead-last in every pitching statistic, Wojciechowski is also pitching to a 9.35 ERA and 2.08 WHIP over his last two starts. 

Ceasar Hernandez has been leading off against right-handers and he could be a huge value atop the Phillies lineup. 

Shortstop

Xander BogaertsXander Bogaerts FD - SS 4000 DK - SS 5200
Opponent - LAA (Patrick Sandoval) Park - BOS
FD - 16.68 DK - 12.73

I never seem to get Bogaerts right for whatever reason and that's pretty sad considering how good of a season he's having. We're talking about a guy who's setting career-highs across the board with a .307 AVG, .386 OBP, .561 SLG and .941 OPS. Those are numbers I thought I'd never see from Bogaerts but batting in the heart of this stellar order is definitely a major reason why. Getting to face Patrick Sandoval is only a bonus and we'll go over that in our outfield write-up. 

Didi GregoriusDidi Gregorius FD - SS 3200 DK - SS 4200
Opponent - TOR (Trent Thornton) Park - TOR
FD - 13.25 DK - 10.15

It's strange to have to scroll down to find Gregorious because he's been one of the best shortstops in the league the past month. What's really added to his value are all of these injuries that the Yankees have suffered, as that has forced him back into the heart of this order. That has led to him accruing 22 RBI over his last 18 games and he's always been better against right-handers. Since 2016, Gregorius has an OPS just shy of .850 against righties and Trent Thornton's 5.55 ERA and 1.53 WHIP make him a pitcher we can definitely exploit. 

Third Base

Alex BregmanAlex Bregman FD - 3B 3900 DK - 3B/SS 5600
Opponent - BAL (Asher Wojciechowski) Park - BAL
FD - 16.69 DK - 12.58

Bregman is having a big game right now on Saturday and we'll do our best to update these live numbers since it feels like he's producing in every at-bat. Over his last eight games, Bregman has six doubles, two homers, 11 runs scored and 11 RBI en route to an OBP well above .500 and an OPS just shy of 1.500. Those are truly bonkers statistics and it's really no surprise against a putrid pitching staff like the Orioles. That makes this FanDuel price truly mind-boggling, as he should be about $4,500 with those sorts of numbers. 

Miguel SanoMiguel Sano FD - 3B 3500 DK - 3B 5000
Opponent - CLE (Aaron Civale) Park - MIN
FD - 11.85 DK - 8.82

Sano is a personal favorite of mine and there's something special about this dude just mashing baseballs. Batting third on Friday night is what really encourages me, as Minnesota are finally trusting that his power potential is worth the risk of his strikeout rates. We're talking about a stud with a .246 career ISO and .322 ISO this season. Those are elite power numbers and it really doesn't show in his price. While this matchup against Aaron Civale is not easy, he's a relatively unproven pitcher. 

If Tommy Edman leads off for the Cardinals, we like him against a lefty.

Outfield

Mookie BettsMookie Betts FD - OF 4400 DK - OF 5300
Opponent - LAA (Patrick Sandoval) Park - BOS
FD - 18.81 DK - 14.31

J.D. MartinezJ.D. Martinez FD - OF 4500 DK - OF 5100
Opponent - LAA (Patrick Sandoval) Park - BOS
FD - 18.61 DK - 13.97

These guys are regulars in our articles and recent results show why. Let's go over this matchup first though, as these two should have a heyday against Patrick Sandoval. We're talking about a gas can who pitched to a 6.41 ERA and 1.98 WHIP at Triple-A this season and he's only pitching because this Angels staff is in ruins. That's truly scary for this young lefty and the Red Sox implied run total of 6.8 shows just how good of a play these guys are.

Now that we got the matchup out of the way, let's talk about these players. J.D. is simply one of the hottest hitters in the league, providing seven doubles, seven homers, 17 runs scored and 20 RBI over his last 19 games en route to a .494 OBP and 1.321 OPS. That's even more worrisome for Sandoval considering Martinez has a 1.364 OPS against lefties this season. Betts really isn't far behind, as he's got a .412 OBP and .955 OPS against southpaws since 2017. 

Aaron JudgeAaron Judge FD - OF 4000 DK - OF 4400
Opponent - TOR (Trent Thornton) Park - TOR
FD - 16.26 DK - 12.08

While this FanDuel price makes Judge a tough sell with his recent form, this DraftKings price is hard to overlook. While the numbers don't match it, the peripherals tell us that this big man is still mashing baseballs. That's evident by the fact that he ranks near the top of the league in wOBA and barrel rate while leading the league in exit velocity. That means a hot streak is inevitable and it could start here against a guy with a 5.55 ERA and 1.53 WHIP.  

Jesse Winker has been leading off the for Reds and is in consideration at his dirt-cheap price tag. 

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5 Visitor Comments

  1. I’ve been reading this column for years nearly every day during baseball season. This is FREE advice and I really appreciate the hell out of it. However, this season I’ve been left scratching my head a bit. Forgive me for being a jerk, but today is a great example. How do any of these plays facilitate each other? You’re writing up the most obvious high priced, chalk guys at every position. Which wouldn’t be so bad… if you didn’t pair them in the article with a 12,500 dollar SP1 and a 10,600 dollar SP2. Like, what is anyone supposed to do with this advice? If you play Verlander, you cannot play hardly any of these bats in a lineup. Certainly not more than 1… MAYBE 2. Even if you just go with Giolito as your lone pitcher on FanDuel, you’re still touting all of these players who are over 3,500 on that site. Many 4,000+. It’s kind of like any time there’s a Coors game on the main slate… this column regurgitates the usual Rockies along with the obvious visiting bats. People seeking out daily fantasy advice love to hear about a few guys or stud pitchers that can act as key cogs. Sure. However, that stuff isn’t too hard. It ain’t rocket science to figure out JD Martinez and Mookie Betts would make a nice core to a Boston stack vs a left-handed gas can who can’t even cut it in AAA. What the daily fantasy junkies really need? Is the VALUE. Who can I fit in at the lower tier of the salary that has a nice points per dollar opportunity? The guys that are going to ENABLE me to roll out the Freddie Freemans, Mike Trouts and Justin Verlanders of the world. Just my two cents and I hope you don’t take it personally. I love the column, the picks and the data layout you guys always give to support your picks. I will continue reading, regardless. Cheers

  2. Richard- You are absolutely right. I agree with everything you wrote. The other puzzling thing that is done here is recommending terrible points per dollar plays based on their projection system. Giolito is an example today with his 1.7 points per dollar number.

  3. I say it all the time. Advice is pointless when is the most expensive player at every position

  4. Should’ve gone with
    Trout Alvarez and Acuna at OF
    to finish off your unrealistic player pool.

  5. a dead is right twice a day

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