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    Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

    08/13/2019
    Chris Durell

    Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – BMW Championship

    Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.

    BMW Championship

    After Patrick Reed won The Northern Trust to open the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the PGA Tour now heads to Medinah Country Club which will host the BMW Championship. With the new three-event format, the field is now down to 70 players who will battle it out to make the Top 30 and the Tour Championship at East Lake.

    This is the first trip to Medinah CC for the PGA Tour since the 2012 Ryder Cup. It also hosted the 2006 and 1999 PGA Championship's which were both won by none other than Tiger Woods. He withdrew last week with a "mild" oblique strain but is back in the field this week sitting at #38 in standings. He will be looking for a good performance to get back to East Lake where he broke through with a win after a very long recovery and comeback to the Tour.

    Medinah Country Club's No.3 Course will play as a Par 72 coming in at 7,613 yards on the scorecard. That's right, for those of you(myself included) who forget the course it is a beast. Off the tee, golfers will see fairways that are heavily protected by bunkers in key landing areas combined with knarly Kentucky Bluegrass rough(4" second cut rough) that can create problems and forced layups. You not only need to be long off the tee but also accurate(Total Driving/SG: Off the Tee).

    There are also a ton of doglegs on the course creating blind shots and over half of those are right to left(draw for righties, fade for lefties). On the approach, golfers will be looking at smaller than average green complexes that are very well protected by bunkers and many of the greens are elevated adding to the challenge. On top of SG: Approach/Proximity being a key stat, it also makes sense to look at SG: Around the Green with some Sand Save performance mixed in as well.

    Overall, it is a challenging course but keep in mind that Tiger won the 2006 and 1999 PGA Championships here with winning scores of -18 and -11 respectively. The head pro at Medinah, Marty DeAngelo, predicted a winning score in the -15 to -17 range despite the challenges so it makes sense to once again weigh Birdie or Better % and fantasy scoring trends as well.

    The Course

    Medinah Country Club(Course No.3)
    Par 72 - 7,613 Yards
    Greens - Bentgrass

    **Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**

    Top Stats in the Model

    • Strokes Gained: Off the Tee/Total Driving(leaning distance over accuracy)
    • Strokes Gained: Approach(emphasis on long irons)
    • Birdie or Better %
    • Strokes Gained: Around the Green(emphasis on Sand Save %)

    When breaking down the top stats I use a combination of my own cheatsheet and the tools over at FantasyNational.com.

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    Top Tier Targets

    Rory McIlroy
    World Golf Ranking (#3)
    Vegas Odds (8/1)
    Draftkings ($11,500)
    FanDuel ($12,100)

    Rory enters the BMW Championship in a great spot sitting 3rd in the FedEx Cup standings and is #1 in both my model on my sheet and my custom model on Fantasy National. It starts with his consistency as he leads the Tour with 13 Top 10 finishes and has done so in just 17 events played and has also added wins at the PLAYERS and RBC Canadian Open. When looking at Total Driving, Rory is 2nd in distance and 115th in accuracy on the season but comes into this event having gained strokes hitting fairways in eight of his last 10 measured rounds. He then ranks 1st in SG: Off the Tee, 1st in Birdie or Better Gained, 5th in Par 5 Scoring, and 6th in Par 4 Scoring over the last 24 rounds. I slightly lean Rory over Koepka at the top this week but will have exposure to both in GPP formats.

    Adam Scott
    World Golf Ranking (#17)
    Vegas Odds (25/1)
    Draftkings ($9,200)
    FanDuel ($10,900)

    I hope you got some exposure to low-owned Adam Scott last week as his 5th place finish has pushed him to the #1 spot in FanShareSports tag count(as of Tuesday am) entering the BMW Championship. He ended up shooting all four rounds under 70 last week and outside of a disaster OPEN Championship, he has been solid all-around lately. Going back to the PGA Championship, he has gained strokes Ball Striking in 17 of 21 rounds(2+ strokes in nine of those rounds) and looking at the last 24 rounds data(via FNGC), he ranks Top 10 in both Par & 5 scoring, 4th in SG: Approach, 4th in Proximity from 200+, and 7th in Birdie or Better Gained. I look for the strong run to continue for Scott and at these prices at the bottom of the top tier, he is an excellent play in all formats.

    Mid Tier Targets

    Xander Schauffele
    World Golf Ranking (#11)
    Vegas Odds (33/1)
    Draftkings ($8,600)
    FanDuel ($10,500)

    A missed cut at The Northern Trust has pushed Xander's price down below his season average on both sites opening up a buy-low situation. I am not at all worried about the missed cut considering how well he has played before that in the short term and in the long term on a season level. He comes in with two wins(WGC HSBC and Tournament of Champions) and 12 Top 25 finishes in 18 stroke-play events and while he has struggled a bit with the approach shot in the short term, he is still an elite tee to green player(18th overall). He has the distance to attack this course, is a Top 30 in every Strokes Gained metric on my sheet, and is Top 20 in Proximity from 175-200 and 200+ yards. I see a bounce-back performance this week as he has proven to thrive in these smaller, loaded fields and will be a core play for me in all formats.

    Jason Kokrak
    World Golf Ranking (#60)
    Vegas Odds (60/1)
    Draftkings ($7,800)
    FanDuel ($9,100)

    If you have been following the Tour all season there should be absolutely no surprise that Kokrak is here at the BMW Championship and only two spots away from making the Tour Championship for the first time. Taking out the Zurich Classic team event(T22), he has made a whopping 20 of 21 cuts in stroke-play events but has been better than that with five Top 10's and 11 Top 25 finishes as well. He is another player who can take advantage of his distance off the tee and looking at the stats on my sheet, he ranks 6th in SG: Ball Striking(12th OTT, 6th APP), 12th in Driv Distance, 6th & 33rd in Proximity from 175-200 and 200+ yards, and 25th in Birdie or Better %. He will another core play for me in all formats.

    Value Targets

    Byeong Hun An
    World Golf Ranking (#50)
    Vegas Odds (80/1)
    Draftkings ($7,400)
    FanDuel ($8,300)

    Benny An has been a consistent value all season making 17 of 20 cuts but it's the recent upside(for the price) that intrigues me this week. First of all, he is going to need a strong finish to advance to the Tour Championship sitting 61st in the standings but regardless I feel he is a great DFS target this week. While making seven of his last eight cuts, he has flashed that upside with a 3rd at the Wyndham and in stronger fields he has finished T17 at the Memorial, and T16 at the US Open in that time frame. He has in the 60's in six of his last eight rounds, has the distance to attack this course, and also has a solid long iron game(1tth from 175-200 & 37th from 200+ yards). He is one of my top value plays in all formats.

    Joaquin Niemann
    World Golf Ranking (#80)
    Vegas Odds (80/1)
    Draftkings ($7,300)
    FanDuel ($8,700)

    The youngest player left in the Playoffs just narrowly made it through on the number ranking 70th coming into the BMW Championship. He has also seen his salary drop a bit on both sites and is a bit of a buy-low considering how well he has been playing. He has not only made nine of his last 10 cuts(missed cut at the OPEN) but also has two Top 5'sl four Top 13's and no finish outside T31 in that time(outside the MC). He is also #4 in my custom model this week ranking 22nd in SG: Off the Tee, 11th in SG: Approach, 10th in Proximity from 200+ yards, 10th in Par 5 scoring, 7th in Par 4 scoring, and 5th in Birdie or Better %. All things considered, he is in play in all formats.

    Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for six years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.

    6 Visitor Comments

    1. Your model links to one for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

    2. Fixed. Thanks for the heads up. and good luck this week.

      • No worries, appreciate your work

        All the best from Alberta

    3. Heck ya. I make it out there a ton.

    4. Is scrambling important at this course?

    5. Not as important in my opinion. Thinking winning score of -15 to -20 so if you are scrambling lots, I don’t think you will be making lots of birdies.

      With that said, it is always important from a floor perspective as it can keep a player to a par or bogey instead of bogey or double or worse so there is that but with no cut this week I want players who are scoring birdies and have good long irons.

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