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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

08/24/2019
Joel Bartilotta

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 8/25/19

Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. We've been killing it with our picks recently and we're hoping to keep that momentum going here. Sundays are always tricky though because it's a great day to rest your studs after a long week. That does open up value though and it'll be critical to monitor lineup developments as they're released.

Pitchers

Stephen StrasburgStephen Strasburg FD 10100 DK 11300
Opponent - CHC (Cole Hamels) Park - CHC
FD - 36.87 DK - 20.35

While this is a tough matchup, it's really tough to fade Strasburg the way he's pitching right now. A 3.65 ERA and 1.08 WHIP speak for itself, but he's actually probably even been better than those numbers suggest, with a 3.34 xFIP and 29 percent K rate. Those elite peripherals tell us that he's been slightly unlucky this season and he's truly in the mix for an NL Cy Young with his stellar numbers. It's not like the Cubs are the scariest matchup either, with Chicago ranked 19th in K rate, 14th in runs scored and 15th in xwOBA. That doesn't even take into consideration that Wrigley Field ranks in the bottom-5 in park factor, making it one of the best parks to pitch in. Aaron NolaAaron Nola FD 10700 DK 11000
Opponent - MIA (Elieser Hernandez) Park - MIA
FD - 38.19 DK - 20.82

This play is pretty simple. Any time you get an elite pitcher facing the Marlins, you use them! Nola is just that, as he's recaptured his All-Star form since the opening months. Over his last 12 starts, Nola is pitching to a 2.13 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 10.1 K/9 rate. Those are shocking numbers from a player whose prices has never recovered, particularly in such a tasty matchup. In fact, the Marlins currently rank either 29th or dead-last in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA. That was evident when Nola pitched eight one-run innings in his last start against Miami while striking out 10 batters. Not to mention, Nola enters this matchup as a projected -200 favorite. ad

Catcher/First Base

Josh VanMeterJosh VanMeter FD 2700 DK 4000
Opponent - PIT (Dario Agrazal) Park - PIT
FD - 10.06 DK - 7.71

While I'd rather use VanMeter at second base on DraftKings, this $2,700 price on FanDuel is absolutely ridiculous. This dude has been raking since being recalled from the minors and it's really no surprise when you see his Triple-A numbers. At that level this season, JVM provided a .429 OBP, .669 SLG and 1.098 OPS. Those absurd numbers arent far off of VanMeter's recent statistics, with the utility man hitting .333 over his last 32 games while posting a .936 OPS in that span. That's all you can ask for with Pittsburgh throwing Dario Agrazal - a pitcher who didn't make FanGraphs' top 30 prospect list for the Pirates, much less their top 100 list overall. His 4.09 K/9 so far in the bigs is laughable, and VanMeter and company should rake here.

Daniel MurphyDaniel Murphy FD 3100 DK 3900
Opponent - STL (Michael Wacha) Park - STL
FD - 9.87 DK - 7.58

While Murphy has struggled outside of Coors Field this season, we always want to stack lefties against Michael Wacha. Let's start with that stellar matchup, with the Cardinals righty pitching to a 5.22 ERA and 1.61 WHIP this season. Those dreadful numbers also put the platoon advantage in Murphy's favor, which is huge considering he has an OPS north of .900 against righties since 2016. Murph has been a different player the last few months too, hitting .315 over his last 79 games while generating a .858 OPS in that span. If you're in need of a catcher, Yasmani Grandal remains too cheap on both sites in the midst of what's become a career year.

Second Base

Ozzie AlbiesOzzie Albies FD 3000 DK 4000
Opponent - NYM (Steven Matz) Park - NYM
FD - 10.77 DK - 8.34

Albies literally homered minutes ago as I'm writing this and it's amazing just how good this guy has been recently. Since June 7, Ozzie is hitting .311 while providing a .553 SLG and .914 OPS. Those huge numbers make this price tag shocking, especially considering Albies gets to hit from the right side. Against left-handers this year, Albies is hitting .387 en route to a .677 SLG and 1.085 OPS. Steven Matz is really not a southpaw we're worried about either, with the Mets lefty pitching to a 4.18 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Cavan BiggioCavan Biggio FD 3200 DK 4200
Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - SEA
FD - 10.13 DK - 7.76

These Toronto rookies are simply amazing, with Biggio, Guerrero and Bichette being the future of this franchise. While Biggio has been the worst of the three, he remains way too cheap on these DFS sites. The biggest reason we like him today is because he's expected to bat second against a left-hander. Getting that potent spot in the lineup is big but Biggio also posted a .422 OBP against southpaws at Triple-A this season. Those minor league numbers are one of the biggest endorsements for Biggio, as he accrued a .448 OBP and .962 OPS at Triple-A this season. Don't worry about Marco Gonzalez and his 4.30 ERA and 1.36 WHIP either.

Shortstop

Xander BogaertsXander Bogaerts FD 3700 DK 5100
Opponent - SD (Joey Lucchesi) Park - SD
FD - 11.51 DK - 8.78

Bogaerts has seen a small price drop recently and it really doesn't many any sense. This guy has been one of the best hitters in the AL this season and he's definitely in consideration for AL MVP. Let's take a look at those stout numbers, with Bogey generating a .308 AVG, .559 SLG and .942 OPS so far this season. Those brilliant numbers make him very attractive, considering he also gets the platoon advantage against Joey Lucchesi here. Jean SeguraJean Segura FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - MIA (Elieser Hernandez) Park - MIA
FD - 10.37 DK - 8.17

Segura is just getting too cheap. We're talking about a guy who has an AVG north of .300 since 2016 while posting an OPS just shy of .800 in that same span. That's all you can ask for from someone priced so cheaply and those averages are right on par with his numbers this year. What makes him intriguing today is that he gets to face Elieser Hernandez, who's got a 6.46 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over his last six starts.

Third Base

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD 3100 DK 4100
Opponent - SEA (Marco Gonzales) Park - SEA
FD - 10.98 DK - 8.41

These prices are insulting. Vlad Sr. is going to have a fit if FanDuel and DraftKings don't fix them and it's truly bizarre when you see Vlad Jr's numbers. Since July 19, Guerrero is hitting .378 while tallying a .667 SLG and 1.106 OPS. That fantastic form makes him really hard to fade in this price range, particularly from a guy who's expected to be one of the best hitters in baseball for years to come. Getting to face a lefty is simply the icing on the cake, with Vlad Jr. posting an OPS north of 1.000 against lefties for his minor league career. Josh DonaldsonJosh Donaldson FD 3200 DK 4500
Opponent - NYM (Steven Matz) Park - NYM
FD - 10.38 DK - 7.76

Donaldson always rakes against left-handers and I believe that he should be about $4,000 on FanDuel. The career numbers against southpaws are truly awesome, with Donaldson posting a .384 OBP, .571 SLG and .955 OPS. That's on par with his .387 OBP against lefties this season and it's scary just how good this dude has been the past two months. Over his last 44 games, Donaldson has a .411 OBP and a 1.019 OPS, if you needed any more incentive.

Outfield

Hunter RenfroeHunter Renfroe FD 2700 DK 4400
Opponent - BOS (Brian Johnson) Park - BOS
FD - 11.96 DK - 9.05

If you think Donaldson's splits are crazy, wait until you see these. Renfroe has made minced meat of left-handers all season long, to the tune of a .656 SLG and .984 OPS. That's huge from a guy who has 32 dingers and he happens to face a really bad southpaw here. In fact, the Padres face Brian Johnson, who's currently pitching to a 6.58 ERA and 2.04 WHIP. That puts all of the Padres righties in play, with guys like Manny Machado and Wil Myers also being good values. Mark CanhaMark Canha FD 2900 DK 4600
Opponent - SF (Logan Webb) Park - SF
FD - 9.8 DK - 7.42

Many people may not realize it but Canha has been a breakout player for the A's this season. A .516 SLG and .902 OPS are career-highs by a significant margin and a lot of that production has come recently. Over his last eight games. Canha has collected three homers and nine RBI en route to a .450 AVG. That stretch extends much longer too, with Canha posting a .396 OBP over his last 32 fixtures. We certainly don't need to worry about Logan Webb either, with the Giants righty making only his second start of his career. J.D. MartinezJ.D. Martinez FD 4300 DK 5000
Opponent - SD (Joey Lucchesi) Park - SD
FD - 12.84 DK - 9.64

This play really doesn't take a whole lot of explanation, as Martinez is arguably the best pure hitter in our game. He's shown flashes of that dominance recently, providing a .393 AVG, .463 OBP, .744 SLG and 1.207 OPS over his last 30 games. What makes him truly frightening here is that he gets to face a lefty, with J.D. posting a .389 AVG, .474 OBP, .841 SLG and 1.314 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor this season. While Luchessi is a good pitcher, his 5.06 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over his last six starts shows that he's struggling.

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2 Visitor Comments

  1. Cleveland, puts up 9 runs today. just sayin

  2. told ya

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