Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 8/29/19
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On a smaller slate like this, paying up for an ace like Clevinger is going to be tough which has me taking the discount with Berrios, at least in cash games. His last start looks a lot worse than the boxscore shows as he was cruising through five innings before a couple of singles, a poorly fielded ball in the outfield, and home run had him exit early in the 6th and eventually picking up the loss. I am not concerned here as he gets another plus matchup against a White Sox team that ranks near the bottom of the league in hitting over the last 30 days and against right-handed pitching for the season. Under $10K on both sites, Berrios is my top play in all formats today.
Also Consider: Chris Bassitt(OAK)
There are six games on the main slate making it a bit easier to pay up at pitcher and that is good news as every other top pitcher has struggled lately. Struggling is something Jacob deGrom hasn't experienced much of this season as he has held opponents to three or fewer earned runs in 23 of his 26 starts and two or fewer earned runs in nine straight starts. That gives him the third-best ERA(2.56) and fourth-best xFIP(3.20) in baseball and he also gives us big upside with a 31.9% K rate and 15.7% swinging-strike rate. The Cubs got to Syndergaard last night but that doesn't overly concern me as they have been well below average(.302 wOBA, 83 wRC+, 25% K rate) over the last 30 days. All things considered, I will be loading up on deGrom in all formats.
Also Consider: Lance Lynn(TEX)
There are three teams I am targeting on this small four-game early slate and it starts with the Indians who currently sit atop the raw points projections today. Santana has been very up and down lately but when he gets on the scoresheet he makes it count as he has eight multi-hit efforts in his last 15 games. He has also been very consistent overall this season with a .292/.412/.544 slash line and while he has been solid from both sides of the plate he has been slightly better against lefties posting a whopping .411 wOBA, 156 wRC, and 49% hard contact rate. He faces a below-average pitcher in Daniel Norris(4.70 ERA/4.67 xFIP) and is a great play in all formats.
Catcher Consideration: Josh Phegley(OAK) who has been red-hot lately with hits in five straight games
Dom Nunez FD - C 3100 DK - C 3600
Opponent - PIT (Trevor Williams) Park - COL
FD - 11.71 DK - 8.97
Josh Bell FD - 1B 4300 DK - 1B 5400
Opponent - COL (Chi Chi Gonzalez) Park - COL
FD - 16.15 DK - 12.25
It is a perfect storm for a huge offensive game in Coors tonight with two struggling pitchers facing off in a game with expected temps in the 90's and the projected wind blowing out to center at 8-10 mph. I will touch on this game a ton but will try and attack it from a value perspective.
One player who I will be paying up for in this game is Josh Bell who seems to have found his groove again with hits in four of his last five games with three home runs and seven RBI. He has also been much better from the left side(.404 wOBA, 152 wRC+, .335 ISO) and faces a pitcher in Chi Chi Gonzalez who has given up a .409 wOBA, .569 SLG, and 2.5 HR/9 to left-handed bats.
From a value perspective, Dom Nunez sits right near the top of the PTS/$ rankings in the system and provides some value at the catcher position in this projected offensive blood-bath. Since being called up by the Rockies, he has hits in three of five games including a home run in his debut. I am not expecting a ton of production here but the matchup makes sense as Trevor Williams also struggles against lefties(.393 wOBA, .572 SLG).
Also Consider: Eric Hosmer(SD)
The middle infield positions are always the first place I look for value and second base is full of them on this day slate. The one that sticks out the most is Jurickson Profar who has provided a nice floor lately as he entered Wednesday night with multiple walks in four straight and at least one hit in four of his last five with four extra-base hits. he also gets a plus matchup against Glenn Sparkman who has struggled to a 5.52 ERA/5.62 xFIP in his first full season and has given up a pile of home runs(23 for a 16% HR/FB rate). On top of that, he has really struggled against lefties(.384 wOBA, .571 SLG, 2.6 HR/9) so at his price, you can fire up Profar in all formats and pay up elsewhere.
My exposure to the Rockies continues at second base with Ryan McMahon who is having a very productive second half hitting .275 with a .363 on-base percentage with 11 home runs and 32 RBI. The opportunity is definitely there as he has consistently hit in the five or six-hole in the lineup and as I mentioned with Nunez above, the lefties get a boost tonight against Trevor Williams. I wouldn't go as far as to say he is a value tonight at the top of the second tier of pricing but he is right near the top of our PTS/$ rankings and a great play in all formats.
Also Consider: Kike Hernandez(LAD)
At the moment, paying up for shortstop is the optimal route on this small slate and I lean Semien over Lindor based off their daily splits. Lindor faces a lefty where he has posted just league-average numbers while Semien has been good in both splits but slightly better against righties with a .358 wOBA, 127 wRC+, and 42% hard contact rate. Looking at current form also sways my decision as Semien comes into tonight with hits in three straight and 12 of his last 14 games with four doubles, a triple, and five home runs. There is a case to be made to punt the position on DraftKings with Semien over $5K but on FanDuel, he is a near lock in all formats today.
Also Consider: Ehire Adrianza(MIN) or Yu Chang(CLE) as punt plays
If you are looking to go against the grain tonight and fade the Coors game, the Reds pop up on my radar and will likely be very low owned. Even in cash games, I will be keying in on Iglesias who provides some much-needed salary relief and has also been red-hot in August with a .383/.393/.543 slash line over 21 games. He and the Reds also face a rookie pitcher in Robert Dugger who struggled a ton at the AAA level and gave up six earned runs(2 HR) in his major-league debut. Iglesias is a core play for me in all formats tonight.
Also Consider: Corey Seager(LAD)
I was leaning Chapman in this spot but as I was writing him up he was struck in the head with a pitch and likely day to day at minimum. With a limited selection of options at the position, I will am looking to pay right up tonight for Sano who went into Wednesday with hits in 11 of his last 13 games with six home runs. For his career, he has been better against lefties but is having one of his best seasons against righties with a .368 wOBA, 129 wRC+, and .322 ISO across 245 plate appearances. It appears there is enough value to feel safe in paying up for Sano in all formats tonight.
**Update - Sano left Wednesday night's game with forearm tightness so stay tuned for his status**
Also Consider: Yoan Moncada(CWS) as a GPP pivot going up against Berrios
Another Pirates bat in this Coors game that I will be looking closely at is Colin Moran who checks all the boxes. First of all, he comes in hot with hits in seven straight and 15 of his last 17 games which include eight extra-base hits and while he gets the Coors price bump he is still about $1000 cheaper than Arenado on both sites making for a much more balanced lineup. All things considered, he is a to play for me in all formats tonight.
Also Consider: Manny Machado(SD) as a GPP pivot in a projected low-owned Padres stack
Eddie Rosario FD - OF 3700 DK - OF 4700
Opponent - CHW (Dylan Cease) Park - CHW
FD - 12.62 DK - 9.72
Jake Cave FD - OF 2300 DK - OF 3900
Opponent - CHW (Dylan Cease) Park - CHW
FD - 8.82 DK - 6.77
The Twins are one of the three teams I will be loading up on early today and I want the most exposure to the lefties. They face rookie, Dylan Cease, who has had more downs than ups since being called up entering tonight with a 5.76 ERA/4.84 xFIP and has given up at least one home run in all nine of his starts. The Twins are likely to run about six lefties in their lineup today and in the outfield, I am looking at Rosario more from a GPP standpoint with his opportunity and upside hitting in the cleanup spot for a team projected around 5.5 runs today. On a small slate, we are going to need a punt play or two if rostering one of the two top tier pitchers and for that, I will be looking to Jake Cave. Despite hitting down in the order and not playing everyday he has been raking in August with seven multi-hit efforts in 17 games with a .413 average and .481 on-base percentage. He makes a nice one-off value or as a part of a wrap-around stack and I will have exposure in all formats.
Hilliard finished off his season at AAA Albuquerque with 35 home runs, 101 RBI, and 109 runs scored and didn't stop after being called up with his first MLB hit coming in the form of a home run. He is in another plus spot tonight at home in Coors against a flyball(38%) pitcher in Trevor Williams who also struggles against lefties(.393 wOBA, .572 SLG). DraftKings has already given him the boost into the $4K range and it won't be long before he is in the mid $3K range on FanDuel so get on it now.
With Sam Hilliard's 35th HR, he now has 101 RBI for the season!
Hilliard has 70 extra-base hits, tying John Lindsey and Joe Dillon for the most in a single-season in Isotopes history!
— Albuquerque Isotopes (@ABQTopes) August 25, 2019
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- Jacob Degrom 653: AP Images