Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.
A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier
Welcome back golf fans. After a long offseason(it's actually been just two weeks) the PGA tour is back to open the 2019/20 with A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier. It is the first of many schedule changes this season to accommodate for the Olympics at the end of July/start of August. One thing hasn't changed is the field strength or lack thereof as Bryson DeChambeau is the only player inside the Top 10 and joins just six others who start the season inside the Top 50 of the Official World Golf Rankings. One thing we do get with the first tournament of the season is the influx of rookies from the Korn Ferry Tour including Scottie Scheffler who topped the money list and is fully exempt this season. After a very impressive debut after turning pro last season, Viktor Hovland will also be in the field and is now a full member of the PGA Tour.
The Old White TPC course has hosted the Greenbrier since 2010 so we do have some course history. When looking at the sheet you will notice 2016 is left off the list and that is because flooding destroyed the course that year to the point the Tour had to cancel the event. The course is a 7,286 yard Par 70 setup and has ranked outside the Top 25 in difficulty in each of the last four events and outside the Top 30 in difficulty(34th, 35th) in two of those four. It makes sense as looking at the last five events combined, the average winning score has been -15.
The course has fairly generous fairways with the average fairways hit sitting around 65% over the last five events and even higher for those who made the cut. This automatically hoists Strokes Gained: Approach to the top of my stats model and with a large of majority of the approaches coming from 125-150 yards it will most definitely turn into a wedge-fest. Along with Birdie or Better % I will also be weighing par 4 scoring very high in my model as well as this is where golfers have proven to separate themselves in the past.
With all that, let's get into the picks.
The Old White TPC - White Sulphur Springs, WV
Par 70 - 7,286 Yards
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
Approach Shot Distribution
Stats above via Fantasy National Golf Club
Previous Five Winners
- 2018 - Kevin Na(-19)
- 2017 - Xander Schauffele(-14)
- 2015 - Danny Lee(-13)
- 2014 - Angel Cabrera(-16)
- 2013 - Jonas Blixt(-13)
Top Stats in the Model
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Proximity from 125-150 yards
- Par 4 Scoring
- Birdie or Better %
Top Tier Targets
The hype train has been full steam ahead since he made his pro debut and while it started with a T54 at the Travelers, he followed it up with by finishing the season with four straight finishes of T16 or better including a 4th at the Wyndham Championship. Don't be fooled by his rank on my sheet which is mainly due to him being not eligible for PGA stats with his limited sample size. Looking at the last 24 rounds data(via FNGC), Hovland ranks 1st in this field in SG: Approach(gained strokes on Approach in 79% of those rounds in sample), 1st in Par 4 scoring, 1st in both opportunities gained and birdie or better gained, and 1st in fantasy scoring. That is more than enough for me to lean Hovland over Bryson who is outside the Top 10 in all of those stats besides Par 4(10th). Lock and load and get ready for a huge jump up the OWGR this season starting this week.
This feels like a high price to pay for Nieman but it is relevant to the field strength and also highly correlated to how well he has played in the summer months. After missing four of five cuts in April and May, he finished the season making 10 of 11 cuts with three Top 10's and no finish worse than T31(outside the MC). Not only is he #1 in my model on the sheet with his combination of stats, form, and history(T5, T29 in two trips), he is also #4 in my custom model on Fantasy National ranking(in this field) 4th in SG: Approach, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring(4th from 400-450 yards), 6th in Opportunities Gained, and 3rd in Birdie or Better Gained. All things considered, Niemann is in my core for all formats this week.
Mid Tier Targets
This is a tough click when making lineups as he is a player who we are used to seeing in the $6K/$7K range on DraftKings and hasn't priced this high since the RSM Classic last November. The good news is that he returns to The Greenbrier and the Old White TPC with some terrific course history with a T29 in 2017 and a T5 last year. He was very inconsistent overall last season making just 64% of his cuts in stroke play events but flashed upside with three Top 10's including a T3 at the playoff-opening Northern Trust. He also topped 80 DraftKings points in seven rounds last year which is Top 30 on Tour. I likely won't be going this direction in cash games but Varner is definitely in my core for GPP formats.
World Golf Ranking (#189)
Vegas Odds (70/1)
This is definitely a tournament where we will have to take some risks and Straka fits that mold. He wasn't exactly consistent last season making just over 50% of his cuts but did show some upside in weak fields as well as some strong fields(T13-Farmers Ins Open, T16-Puerto Rico Open, T28-US Open, T11 Rocket Mortgage Classic, 3rd-Barbasol Championship). Statistically(last 24 rounds), he doesn't stand out when looking my key stats(63rd in SG APP, 35th in Par 4 scoring) but when breaking those stats down further he is 28th in Proximity from 125-150 yards and 26th in Par 4 scoring from 400-450 yards. I like the upside he provides at this event and will have a ton of exposure in GPP formats.
World Golf Ranking (#146)
Vegas Odds (90/1)
After an impressive 2018 rookie campaign where he won his first event, Landry took a step back last season making just 60% of cuts. The good news is that he finished strong making three straight cuts with finishes of 3rd at the John Deere Classic, T19 at the Wyndham, and T30 at the Northern Trust. His stats back that up as well as he ranks(in this field) 15th in SG: Approach, 8th in Par 4 scoring(2nd from 400-450 yards), 16th in Opportunities Gained and 6th in Birdie or Better Gained. There is some risk here for sure but the price is in a great spot to take the risk on Landry and his upside.
World Golf Ranking (#305)
Vegas Odds (80/1)
Tringale missed his final cut of the season at the Northern Trust but before that had been having a very good summer making six straight cuts before that. Overall, he was consistent all year making 14 of 19 cuts in stroke-play events with a Top 10 and seven Top 25's. Where he really stands out for me is on my custom model looking at the last 24 rounds data where he ranks 12th in SG: Approach, 9th in Par 4 scoring(18th from 400-450 yards), and 2nd in Birdie or Better Gained. I love the price on a player with form and who, despite missing three straight cuts here, has had some success with a T4 in 2014 and T23 in 2013. I will have exposure in all formats.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for six years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.