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featured Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

09/13/2019
Chris Durell

Passing Attacks to Target for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 2 on FanDuel and DraftKings

James broke down his top DFS game plays earlier in the week and James Doug broke down every game in the Mega Podcast. Now it's time to look at some passing attacks to target in GPP formats.

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Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick MahomesPatrick Mahomes FD 9000 DK 7500
Opponent OAK
Proj Points FD - 22.08 DK - 23.71

Travis KelceTravis Kelce FD 8000 DK 7300
Opponent OAK
Proj Points FD - 14.17 DK - 17.81

Mecole HardmanMecole Hardman FD 4700 DK 4800
Opponent OAK
Proj Points FD - 6.96 DK - 8.56

Not much has to be said here from a talent standpoint as MVP Mahomes and company picked up right where they left off in 2018. They opened the 2019 season facing the 6th ranked DVOA defense from last year, the Jacksonville Jaguars, and pretty much waxed the floor with them despite losing Tyreke Hill in the first quarter. Mahomes went off for 378 yards and three touchdowns, all of which went to Sammy Watkins who stepped up in a big way with Hill's absence. He caught nine of a game-high 11 targets for a whopping 198 yards and pretty much broke the slate.

As you can see from the list of players above I am going in a different direction this week and will be mostly fading Watkins and his likely high ownership due to recency bias. Instead, I will take the projected ownership discount and roll with rookie Mecole Hardman who should step into the Tyreke Hill role. There is definitely risk here as he is a rookie in his second game in the NFL and ended week one dropping his only target in a game where the Chiefs scored 40 points. The best part here is that he comes cheap under $5K on both sites and pairing him with Mahomes still allows you to pay up at running back and/or tight end. Speaking of, if Hardman appears to be mega chalk come Sunday morning(check FanshareSports) I will be pivoting a ton of exposure over to Kelce. Yes, he will be popular as well but is a proven elite player and the combination of Mahomes and Kelce is very expensive and likely outside the Top 3 highest owned two-man stacks which to me seems like a mistake considering the enormous upside.

New Orleans Saints

Drew BreesDrew Brees FD 8000 DK 6200
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 18.33 DK - 19.65

Michael ThomasMichael Thomas FD 8500 DK 8000
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 16.21 DK - 20.63

Alvin KamaraAlvin Kamara FD 8700 DK 8200
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 19.02 DK - 22.64

This game has the second-highest total(52.5) on the slate and after checking out the trends on FanShareSports, it appears the Rams will be the more popular stack. I will most definitely have shares of both but if that ownership trend continues I will have a ton of the Saints on Sunday. First of all, they played on Monday Night Football after Week 2 salaries were released so the adjustment is not going to be there(Kamara actually dropped in price on DK) for the 30 points they put up against the Texans. In that game, each of the "Big Three" went off as Brees threw for 370 yards and two touchdowns, Kamara ended up with 169 total yards, and "Can't Guard Mike" caught a whopping 10 balls on 13 targets for 123 yards.

Kamara is my favorite play here as one of the best all-around backs in the league (Barkley, McCaffrey, Elliott all right there in my ranks). He faces a Rams defense that allowed McCaffrey to go off for 128 rushing yards (2 TD) while also catching 10 passes for another 81 yards. The part I like most is that the Rams knew what was coming given Cam wasn't able to throw the ball past 20 yards. In a possible shootout, I see another 20+ touch workload for Kamara which gives him a very high floor combined with elite, slate-breaking upside. Thomas is one of the most reliable receiving options in the league coming off a historic 85% catch rate in 2018 and combine that with a first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback in Drew Brees and you have one of the highest floors and monster upside.

While Kamara is not expected to be low owned, both Brees and Thomas currently sit outside the Top 10 in tag counts on FanShareSports at their respective positions. Yes please!

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Buffalo Bills

Josh AllenJosh Allen FD 7500 DK 5300
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 20.21 DK - 20.45

John BrownJohn Brown FD 6300 DK 5200
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 12.06 DK - 13.74

James wrote about Josh Allen in the cash article this week and I agree 100% as he provides a high PTS/$ floor with his rushing ability alone. He also ranks high in my stacking model for multiple reasons starting with his strong arm. He isn't going to provide consistency through the air but he isn't afraid to take shots and he showed that in week one with four completions over 20 yards downfield. Two of those completions went to John Brown who had a monster debut with his new team catching seven of 10 of his targets for 123 yards and a touchdown. Four of those 10 targets were 20 or more yards downfield. More good news as the Bills go up against a Giants defense that got torched last week by Dak Prescott who threw for 405 yards and four touchdowns and on top of that, they allowed seven completions of 20+ yards which feeds right into the upside potential for Allen and Brown.

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2 Visitor Comments

  1. Love paring Josh Allen with Zay Jones this week. Should see decent targets on one of PFF’s best matchups of the slate.

    • Love that call Brandon. Zay will be way lower owned than Brown for sure.

      Good luck this week and thanks for reading!

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