Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – Sanderson Farms Championship
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.
Sanderson Farms Championship
The fall season continues with a trip to the Country Club of Jackson for the Sanderson Farms Championship. While the field is a bit stronger than last year when the event was played a month later, it is still a weak-field event(average 471 OWGR) and has seen more than one long shot winner.
The course is a Par 72 setup that stretches over 7,400 yards and has ranked just outside the Top 20 in difficulty in each of the last two years. While the fairways hit % is lower than average here, the rough is not very challenging(about 2" on average) which puts a ton of importance on the iron game. This shows in the stats as well as Strokes Gained: Approach has been a major factor in players separating themselves here despite there being both bombers(Champ averaged 334 in 2018 win, Gribble averaged 312 in 2016 win) and plodders(Armour averaged 268 in 2017 win, Malnati averaged 271 in 2015 win) who have been successful here. With the driving accuracy number in the mid 50% range on average, I will also be looking at Rough Proximity in my model as well. You can see all my top stats below and in the model on the sheet, now let's get into the picks.
Country Club of Jackson - Jackson, MS
Par 72 - 7,440 Yards
Greens - Champion Bermuda
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
Previous Five Winners
- 2018 - Cameron Champ(-21)
- 2017 - Ryan Armour(-19)
- 2016 - Cody Gribble(-20)
- 2015 - Peter Malnati(-18)
- 2014 - Nick Taylor(-16)
Top Stats in the Model
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Rough Proximity
- Birdie or Better %
- Par 4 Scoring
Top Tier Targets
There is a ton to like about Scheffler in his rookie season. He is coming off a very successful year on the Korn Ferry Tour(formerly Web.com Tour) winning twice with 10 Top 10's in 20 events and also performed well in four events on the PGA Tour making three of four cuts(missed US Open) including a T45 here at the Sanderson Farms Championship last season. He also opened up his rookie campaign with a T7 at the Greenbrier last week gaining a whopp[ing 8.1 strokes on his approach shots. If he can get the putting rolling(lost 1.8 strokes last week) as he did on the Korn Ferry Tour(ranked Top 15 in putting average) he very well could the next up and coming star to win his first PGA Tour event. I will have exposure in all formats and will also be placing an outright and Top 10 bet on Scheffler this week.
I never imagined seeing Corey Conners in the top tier of pricing but here we are. I definitely won't be rostering in any cash game formats as he is coming off a season where made just 55% of his cuts but the upside is there as he did pick up his first career win and also tallied six straight finishes inside the Top 30 to close out last season making it all the way to the Tour Championship. He also fits the stats model in a huge way as he finished the season ranked 8th in SG: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Approach and over his last 24 rounds was 4th in Opportunities Gained. For him to tap into that winning upside, he will have to get the putter rolling at least field average and the good news is that Bermuda is where he performs best(still below average, however). GPP only for me this week.
Mid Tier Targets
He is borderline a top tier option but is 12th in pricing on DraftKings and I already wrote up the other two so I fit him here. If you are looking for that core piece to fit in for cash games, Taylor is where I am looking as he was very consistent last season making 73% of his cuts and finished the season making 10 straight with two Top 10's and five Top 25 finishes. He is above average with the approach shot(33rd on my sheet), an excellent putter(16th in SG: Putting on my sheet) and has a great balance of safety(19th in Bogey Avoidance) and upside(22nd in Birdie or Better %) and backs all that up with course history as he has finished 26th or better in each of his last four trips. He is in play in all formats.
World Golf Ranking (#197)
Vegas Odds (100/1)
Werenski somewhat disappointed in his third season on Tour with just one Top 10 finish but he was fairly consistent(considering the price range) making 65% of cuts. More than anything this week I am looking for players in form and Werenski started off the new season in style last week at the Greenbrier with all four rounds in the 60's resulting in a very impressive T3. He gained strokes in every Strokes Gained area and while I expect another solid performance this week, I do expect some regression in the putting department(gained 7.4 strokes putting last week) but still see a Top 20 for upside and made cut for a floor. He is in my player pool in all formats.
World Golf Ranking (#130)
Vegas Odds (125/1)
Despite missing three of his final four cuts on the Korn Ferry Tour to end the season, Robby Shelton had a very successful year winning twice and will now get a shot on the PGA Tour as a full-time member. It is a small sample but he quickly proved he deserves the opportunity as he went out on Thursday last week at the Greenbrier and posted a 62 and ended up with a very impressive T7 finish. While I am not expecting a repeat performance this week, it is definitely in there for the taking as he ranked inside the Top 25 in Greens in Regulation and 2nd in Putting Average on the Korn Ferry Tour last season and gained 6.8 strokes Ball Striking and 4.5 strokes putting last week. He is my top value play in all formats this week.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for six years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.