Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Joel Bartilotta

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 9/27/19

This is our final Friday slate of the season and things get real weird as we reach the home stretch. These coaches are doing bizarre things with their rotations and lineups and it's making it very tough to make correct DFS picks. Hopefully, our picks here can weed out some of that uncertainty and lead to some success.

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Mike FiersMike Fiers FD 8300 DK 7900
Opponent - SEA (Justus Sheffield) Park - SEA
FD - 29.67 DK - 14.86
Fiers is coming off one of the best starts of his career, throwing eight scoreless innings against the Rangers on Sunday. That extends a rather impressive stretch for Fiers, with the right-hander allowing three runs or fewer in 23 of his last 26 starts. He actually has a 3.15 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in that span and it's clear that he's having a resurgent season in the green and gold. Facing the Mariners is simply a bonus, with Seattle ranked 28th in K rate and bottom-10 in OBP and OPS since the opening month. Not to mention, Fiers and the A's enter this matchup as a -210 favorite.

Vince VelasquezVince Velasquez FD 7600 DK 6200
Opponent - MIA (Pablo Lopez) Park - MIA
FD - 31.31 DK - 16.75
It's very difficult to trust a guy like Velasquez but this matchup is too good to pass up. The simple fact is, Miami ranks bottom-two in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA. Those horrific numbers limit the risk from a volatile pitcher like Velasquez, with the right-hander generating a 26 percent K rate. That strikeout stuff looks even better when you consider that he has a career xFIP barely eclipsing 4.00 and that should make him a decent bet against a lineup like this. That's why he and the Phillies enter this matchup as a -180 favorite, only adding the VV's intrigue. ad

Catcher/First Base

Eric ThamesEric Thames FD 3600 DK 5400
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 13.94 DK - 10.46
While Thames suffered a minor hamstring injury on Thursday, there's some belief that he'll be ready for this series. That's big news for the big man, as he should have a ton of success in Coors Field. Not only is this the best hitting environment in the Majors, the Rockies also have one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball. Chi Chi Gonzalez is a major part of that, pitching to a 5.68 ERA and 1.53 WHIP this season. That's huge for a lefty masher like Thames, with the powerful first baseman amassing a .355 OBP, .529 SLG and .884 OPS against right-handers since 2017.

Daniel MurphyDaniel Murphy FD 3200 DK 4400
Opponent - MIL (Zach Davies) Park - MIL
FD - 12.8 DK - 9.83
On the other end of the ball here, we have to love the Rockies. The reason for that is because they too get a stellar matchup, opposing Zach Davies and his 5.20 xFIP and 15 percent K rate. Those are disastrous numbers in a place like Coors Field, specifically against a guy like Murphy. The left-hander has an OPS north of .900 against right-handers since 2016 and he also has a .314 AVG at home this season. Those beautiful numbers make these price tags truly shocking and he's one of the best values of the day if he suits up.

Second Base

Ryan McMahonRyan McMahon FD 3600 DK 4700
Opponent - MIL (Zach Davies) Park - MIL
FD - 10.96 DK - 8.39
McMahon is way too cheap on FanDuel. Any solid hitter in Coors Field should be at least $3,500 and it's hard to understand where they pulled this price from. The Rockies are actually projected for close to seven runs here and that's a huge total from a talented offense like this. We expect McMahon to do some of that damage, posting a .275 AVG, .534 SLG and .874 OPS at Coors Field this season. He also gets the platoon advantage against Davies and should bat either fifth or sixth for this highly projected lineup.

Cesar HernandezCesar Hernandez FD 2500 DK 3600
Opponent - MIA (Pablo Lopez) Park - MIA
FD - 10.7 DK - 8.28
Hernandez has actually been batting leadoff against right-handers recently and that alone makes him a brilliant option. The Phillies are currently projected for five runs here, which is obviously beneficial to any leadoff hitter. We're certainly not worried about Pablo Lopez either, with the right=hander pitching to a 4.96 ERA this season. Hernandez has typically been much better against righties too, accruing a .286 AVG and .775 OPS against them this season.


Xander BogaertsXander Bogaerts FD 3800 DK 5400
Opponent - BAL (Asher Wojciechowski) Park - BAL
FD - 13.88 DK - 10.6
The Red Sox are going to be one of the best stacks of the day. The reason for that is because they face an Orioles pitching staff who ranks dead-last in ERA and WHIP. Wojciechowski definitely hasn't helped those ugly numbers, with the righty pitching to a 6.41 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over his last 10 starts. That's truly scary against a hitter who's in the midst of a breakout season, with Bogaerts totaling a .305 AVG, .380 OBP, .549 SLG and .929 OPS for the year. That's bad news for Woj, with Boston projected for nearly six runs.

Didi GregoriusDidi Gregorius FD 3300 DK 4200
Opponent - TEX (Joe Palumbo) Park - TEX
FD - 12.19 DK - 9.33
The Yankees are going to be overlooked on this slate with Coors Field in action but that may be a mistake. This potent lineup has a game in Texas and that's why they have an implied team total north of six. While many of their bats are expensive, Gregorious is a nice value in the heart of their lineup. That's no good for Joe Palumbo and his 9.22 ERA and 1.68 WHIP, as he'll likely struggle with all of these Bronx Bombers.

Third Base

Rafael DeversRafael Devers FD 3900 DK 5500
Opponent - BAL (Asher Wojciechowski) Park - BAL
FD - 14.17 DK - 10.78
Devers will be the key piece to this Red Sox stack. We already discussed how high we are on them against Wojciechowski and it's really no surprise when you see his recent numbers. That's huge for Devers, as this dude has killed the Orioles all season long. Not only is he hitting .361 in 61 at-bats against them, Devers also has a .656 SLG and 1.074 OPS. That's really no surprise when you see that he's hitting over .320 since the end of May while accumulating an OPS in the 1.000-range in that same span. Not to mention, he has a .998 OPS against right-handers this season.

Mike MoustakasMike Moustakas FD 4000 DK 5000
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 14.5 DK - 11
I figured Moose would be $500 more on each site in this brilliant situation. We're talking about one of the best hitters in baseball getting the platoon advantage in the best park in the Majors. That's a recipe for success and Moustakas is easily one of the best per-dollar plays on the board. Let's take a look at his splits, with Moustakas posting an OPS 50 points higher against righties than lefties since 2017. That's led to a .519 SLG and .850 OPS this season, which are both two of the highest totals of his career.


Giancarlo StantonGiancarlo Stanton FD 3900 DK 4500
Opponent - TEX (Joe Palumbo) Park - TEX
FD - 16.48 DK - 12.29
It has been a disastrous season for the slugging outfielder but this is DFS and none of that matters anymore. We're still talking about a dude .335 ISO and .422 wOBA against lefties for his career. Those are absurd numbers and it's really not that far off of his career averages in general. That's horrifying for a guy with an ERA above 9.00, particularly in a place like Globe Life Park. The recent struggles have really lowered Stanton to these crazy price tags and I'd argue that he should be a $1,000 more on each site in such a good situation.

Ryan BraunRyan Braun FD 3800 DK 5800
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 13.95 DK - 10.64
Trent GrishamTrent Grisham FD 3200 DK 5500
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 13.18 DK - 10.1
We already discussed the Brewers a bit earlier but let's dig a little deeper into this matchup. Milwaukee faces off with Chi Chi Gonzalez and he's been one of the worst pitchers around. That's evident when you see his 5.68 ERA and 1.53 WHIP for the year but he also has a 6.41 ERA and 1.82 WHIP at home this season. That's downright ugly and it has the Brewers projected for a slate-high seven runs.

Grisham and Braun should be a huge part of those seven runs, with both of these guys breaking out recently. Grisham is actually projected to be their leadoff hitter, which is no surprise when you see his .429 OBP and .989 OPS over his last 16 games played. The veteran has been just as good, posting a 1.210 OPS over his last 12 games. Streaky players in Coors Field is a beautiful thing, especially against such a bad pitcher.


image sources

  • 1024px-Coors_Field,_Denver,_Colorado,_US: By color line (Flickr) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

4 Visitor Comments

  1. Velasquez era vs Miami this season 11.2 innings 12 earned runs 9.64 ERA ….. Has not pitched more than 5 innings since August 5th…..AVOID!

  2. I would pitch eovaldi over Velasquez easy lol

  3. Well guess what opti cashed with VV 😃

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