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featured Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

10/05/2019
Chris Durell

GPP Leverage Plays for Daily Fantasy NFL Week 5 on FanDuel and DraftKings

Welcome back football fans. Doug went over his top cash game plays earlier in the week and he and Doug also previewed every single game on the slate on the DFSR Mega Podcast. What I will be doing now is breaking down some ownership projections and looking at some projected lower owned stacks that can help us get to GPP glory on Sunday.

When projecting ownership for GPP purposes, I use the tools over at FanShareSports. They curate thousands of pieces of content in articles, tweets, videos, podcasts, etc and put it all together into easy to use tools for building DFS lineups. Check them out today and use promo code "DFSR" for 20% off your membership.

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Jameis WinstonJameis Winston FD 7600 DK 6200
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 19.13 DK - 20.16

Mike EvansMike Evans FD 7700 DK 7100
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 13.69 DK - 16.01

My goal here is to pivot off the chalk wide receivers at the top this week. This includes DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones going up against one another, Keenan Allen the target monster, and even Bucs teammate Chris Godwin.  We may not get a discount with Winston(8%-12% projected in GPP) who has been out of this world lately throwing for 380 or more yards in back to back games with seven touchdowns, six of which have gone to Evans and Godwin. They now get another plus matchup against the Saints who rank 26th in DVOA vs. the pass and have allowed the sixth-most fantasy to wide receivers.

What I see here from a leverage standpoint is that people are most likely going to be chasing the Godwin monster game last week(12 catches for 172 yards & 3 TD), especially given he is cheaper and has been more consistent overall catching 76% of his targets. Not that I won't have shares in this plus matchup but I love pivoting to Evans who has the same upside but is projected for half the ownership of Godwin and the gap is even larger when talking about Hopkins and Julio. I will have a ton of exposure to the Bucs offense overall, including Godwin who also makes a nice cash play, but will have most exposure pivoted to Evans in GPP formats.

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Keesean JohnsonKeesean Johnson FD 4600 DK 3500
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 7.59 DK - 9.16

One thing is very clear at this point in the week. Auden Tate is going to be super chalk in the punt wide receiver range this week with John Ross being placed on IR and A.J. Green still out with an ankle injury. In cash games, I am ok with the chalk as it helps us load up with elite running backs but in GPP I will be underweight on the projected 25%+ ownership.

I will instead make a pivot in the same game to a wide receiver in a very similar situation. With Christian Kirk already ruled out and Damiere Byrd questionable, Keesean Johnson who stood out in the preseason is the front runner to get the start on the outside across from Andy Isabella with Larry Legend occupying the slot. He has only been on the field for 56% of the snaps overall but has seen an increase in each of the last three weeks and is a part of a pass-happy offense that throws 68% of the time(4th most) and sit #1 in pace in the league. The floor is not there for cash games but the opportunity for him to hit 4-5x upside is most definitely there and will be a fraction of the ownership as you get with Tate who has just four more career receptions.

Mark IngramMark Ingram FD 7500 DK 6300
Opponent PIT
Proj Points FD - 12.56 DK - 13.05

The chalk that I am looking to pivot off of here is Austin Ekeler, Leonard Fournette, and even Joe Mixon as all three have over 20 tags on FanShare and are projected to be around 10%-15% owned. Sandwiched right in the middle of those names is Mark Ingram who has seen less than 10 tags up to this point and is projected to be about half the ownership of the above-mentioned names. He is not at all a sexy option and doesn't get very involved in the passing game(only 7 targets on the season) but he is averaging 14 carries and 82 rushing yards per game and sits third in carries inside the redzone(13) with five touchdowns. The Ravens are favorites in this one and face a Steelers team that ranks 20th in DVOA vs. the rush and 26th in fantasy points given up to the running back position.

 

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1 Visitor Comment

  1. So why wasnt WR Pringles for the Chiefs on the lineup tool?!

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