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Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 8 - 10/27/19Week 8 is here! McCaffrey returns to the main slate, we see a potential changing of the guard at the top end of DFS quarterbacks, and we have some excellent cash game punt plays at running back. There are some interesting odds being put out from the best sports betting sites, and we're all systems go for another great week. DFSR improved its cash game record to 10-3-1 last week. Can the great roll continue? Read on and find out!
QuarterbacksDeshaun Watson FD 8400 DK 7100
Proj Points FD - 23.36 DK - 24.74
Lamar Jackson, the DraftKings QB1 on the season (and history maker), is off this week. But there are some other high-floor options going and I think we will have the ability to fit them in cash games considering the savings we are getting at others spots in the lineup. Both Watson, and Wilson below are in awesome matchups against terrible defenses. Watson is QB2 on the season and faces an Oakland team ranked 19th in DVOA against the pass. They’ve allowed the 9th-most passing yards this season and Watson’s dual-threat abilities do line up for the nearly perfect cash game play. While he’ll likely be without Will Fuller in this game, the Texans have started feeding DeAndre Hopkins over the last couple of weeks and Kenny Stills/ Keke Coutee are healthy now. Since Week 3, Watson is fourth in passing yards, second in touchdowns and third in QB rushing yards.
Russell Wilson FD 8600 DK 7200
Proj Points FD - 23.39 DK - 24.02
The Falcons have just been murdered on defense this season, allowing the second most passing yards in the league and making it awfully easy for opposing offenses. It’s becoming something of a joke really. They’ve allowed two top-15 QB games already (Watson and Murray) and could be in for it again on Sunday against Wilson. The latter is coming off a tough Week 7 that saw him complete fewer than 50% of his passes, but a bounce back is in the cards here. Even with that bad game, Wilson is still DraftKings QB3 on the season. He is tied for the league-lead in passing touchdowns (15) despite have the fewest attempts of that top group. He’s fifth in QB rushing yards and second in rushing touchdowns. The Seahawks come in with a 29 team total though admittedly this is a week that has some big numbers in that category. I think, for cash games, this is going to be something of a coin flip between Watson and Wilson with either making a great choice.
For our system, Watson and Wilson are far and away the best cash game plays in Week 8. This isn’t necessarily a stretch of course considering what they’ve done this season. So we aren’t walking out on any kind of limb. But considering some of the other salary considerations at other positions, I think it makes sense paying up here.
If you are looking for other options coming just a tick cheaper, there are some other interesting names. Teddy Bridgewater is in a fantastic matchup against the Arizona Cardinals who’ve already allowed two top-10 QB performances this season (Matt Ryan, Lamar Jackson). Bridgewater has filled in admirably for the injured Drew Brees but from a DFS perspective just doesn’t run enough to maintain a high floor in cash games.
If Kerryon Johnson is out, and the Lions can’t get much going on the ground you could see Matthew Stafford pass all over the Giants’ defense this week. Stafford’s had an up and down season, but the Giants represent a fantastic opportunity. They’ve allowed the seventh-most passing yards on the season and this game has a huge total in the dome in Detroit.
Running BacksLeonard Fournette FD 7700 DK 7800
Proj Points FD - 19.53 DK - 20.7
Fournette was over 90% owned in the big double up on FanDuel last week, and promptly put up 141 yards from scrimmage on 31 touches. It couldn't be any more obvious at this point that he's plans A, B, and C for the Jacksonville offense, so why is the price coming down after such ridiculous ownership and production? Well, it's the match-up I suppose. Cincinnati is an all-world match-up for running backs, and the Jets have an above average DVOA against the run this year. They're also 1-5 on the season, and the Jags are favored by 6 in this one. That's the sweet spot for running backs (they should be ahead, but it shouldn't be a blowout), and Fournette leads the NFL in total touches while putting up the third most yards from scrimmage. He's just an elite fantasy back, and only a dramatic increase in price or a terrible match-up is likely to get us off him.
Latavius Murray FD 6200 DK 5800
Proj Points FD - 20.18 DK - 21.91
Kamara hasn't been officially ruled out for week 8 yet, but with the bye coming in week 9 it's hard to believe that they'll rush him back given the sensitive nature of high ankle sprains. And even if he does, did you think I'd pass up the opportunity to take a victory lap on us having Murray in all of our lineups last week? You hardly know me if you did. This is where football can play mind games with you. Earlier this season Malcolm brown was seemingly in a similar situation, filling in for a big name running back in a tough defensive match-up, and he failed spectacularly. People applied the same logic to Murray. With Kamara down, couldn't the Saints just piece it together, or lean on the passing game? The short answer is: no. First of all, Murray wasn't a scrap heap guy. The Saints have always seemed to prefer to not have all of their running back eggs in one basket, and Murray was brought in to be insurance for Kamara. The next is that the Saints are on a back-up QB as well, and while Bridgewater has been serviceable, we saw last game exactly what the Saints hope to do if they get the lead. Murray touched the ball 32 times for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns. The price has barely moved, and now he gets one of the league's best match-ups in Arizona. If Kamara is out, play Murray and don't think twice about it.
Christian McCaffrey FD 9600 DK 9200
Proj Points FD - 23.17 DK - 25.86
We mentioned that there was almost no price too high or match-up too bad for McCaffrey, but we're being put to the test from both angles this week. McCaffrey is coming off of a bad game against Tampa Bay, which was weird because his other bad game this season was against the Bucs as well. He still managed 2 touchdowns and 20 fantasy points, so it's not like you murdered here, but it isn't like C-Mac is completely without risk these days. But you know what he also brings to the table? Absurd upside. Do you realize how big a part of his offense this man is? In his last four weeks, he's averaged 29.75 carries+targets per game. Is that a sustainable pace? Probably not, but we can still ride the wave in the meantime. I'm not sure yet that McCaffrey is where we'll want to allocate our big spending dollars this week, but I wanted to be sure to let you know that I'm A-OK with running him even in one of the toughest possible match-ups and even at these inflated prices.
Ty Johnson FD 5200 DK 4900
Proj Points FD - 14.41 DK - 15.03
Ty Johnson touched the ball 14 times for 57 yards after Kerryon Johnson (no relation) went down last week, and with doubtful to suit up this week, we could be looking at a pretty clear punt play in his back-up. Ty was far from impressive in his touches last week, but these match-ups are very different. Minnesota is a top 4 DVOA rushing defense, where the Giants are almost exactly league average. As far as punt plays go I'd say this one ranks in between the Malcolm Brown play (more speculative) and the Latavius Murray play (more obvious) from earlier this season. While Johnson should get the carries, the Detroit offense sometimes just doesn't support RB1 level carries. Given that the Lions are 7 point favorites here, you'd think that there should be plenty of carries to go around, but I still don't see this play as existing without some level of risk.
Wide ReceiversTyler Boyd FD 5600 DK 5100
Proj Points FD - 13.02 DK - 16.4
The only two players in the NFL with more receiving targets this season are Michael Thomas (78) and Cooper Kupp (77). Then it’s Mr. Tyler Boyd with 73. The main reason is the Bengals are atrocious and have to pass a ton every single game to keep things even moderately close (which amazingly they’ve done, mostly). Boyd has double-digit targets in five of the first seven weeks and it stands to reason that will be the case again in Week 8. The Bengals are +13 dogs on the road against the Rams. I’m not all that concerned with that number and, if anything, it points again to the possibility of Cincinnati throwing from behind most of the game. With Boyd you are getting a lot of targets, but a rough conversion percentage (61%) and few touchdowns (1). But that’s also kept the price totally reasonable on both sites, but especially FanDuel where he’s still sub-$6K. He saw cash ownership on both sites in Week 7 and I think he will again this time around as well.
Dede Westbrook FD 5800 DK 4500
Proj Points FD - 11.85 DK - 13.91
We put Dede Westbrook out there as a borderline cash play in Week 7 and he delivered on his price point with a 6/103 game on nine targets. The Jaguars don’t throw a ton relative to the league, but Westbrook does lead the team in targets with 54. His yards have trailed for most of the season, but we saw that start to bounce back in the short term. He’s not their primary red zone target, but the DraftKings price means he doesn’t need to be. For $4500 you are looking for decent target share and solid reliability. I think Westbrook gives you that against a Jets team that’s much worse against the pass on the season.
Julian Edelman FD 6600 DK 6900
Proj Points FD - 16.77 DK - 20.38
Edelman is fifth in the league in targets despite sitting out a whole half in Week 5 AND playing on a Patriots’ that’s often crushing opponents by the time the fourth quarter rolls around. They are able to take their foot off the gas and relax. Sure, that could be an issue again this week as -12.5 opening home favorites against the struggling Browns. But even with that built-in *risk*, we are still getting Edelman at a major discount. He’s the 15th most expensive WR on FanDuel and 7th on DraftKings. Considering some of the volatility around the more expensive guys on the list, Edelman makes for a fantastic cash game play. Sure, it’s not the sexiest name in the world especially compared to some of these other WR1 types, but for 50/50 contests we are looking to lock in a solid floor and arguably Edelman has the highest of the group considering how the Patriots use him.
Look, no doubt about it there are other top wide receivers who are in incredible matchups this week. Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins and Cooper Kupp are all in games with monster totals. That is going to be one of the major questions coming into Week 8, where to spend the money? I don’t mind targeting WRs in the midrange this week, but that could be a contrarian move.
Tight EndsDarren Waller FD 6800 DK 5900
Proj Points FD - 13.21 DK - 16.09
We've been on Waller for most of the season, and he did nothing to shake our confidence in what should have been a tough match-up with the Packers, putting together 7 catches for 126 yards and 2 touchdowns on 8 targets. He's second in the NFL in terms of total fantasy points for tight ends in spite of having a bye week, and with the injury concerns among the receiving corp of the Raiders I just don't see how they get away from him going forward. The red zone targets were an excellent sign last week as well, as he'll really be a sight to behold if he starts pairing his high target share with more touchdowns as well. Tight end is just flat out bad this year, and grabbing him against a perfectly average Houston pass defense seems fine to me.
Hunter Henry FD 6700 DK 4900
Proj Points FD - 13.08 DK - 15.65
It's a real log jam at tight end on FanDuel, with all of the obvious plays being priced relatively similarly. On DraftKings, though, our system is seeing a fairly clear winner emerge in Hunter Henry. The simple reason for this is the price. Where his peers are all in the high $5,000s and low $6,000s, Henry's price lags behind at below $5k. Henry's resume is straightforward. In the last two weeks he's averaged 7.5 catches for 98.5 yards and a touchdown on 8.5 targets a game. As you can imagine, that's as good as anyone. Yes, the Bears have a lot of defensive talent, but they also look flat out exhausted while trying to keep Mitch Trubisky in games, and I just can't be scared off of a raw value play like this very easily.
A quick note on the rest: Evan Engram, Austin Hooper, and George Kittle look almost completely interchangeable in our system right now. All three have shown great flashes this season, and all three got five targets last week on their way to underperforming their prices. I still think Kittle has some ridiculous games lurking in him, and any of these guys could be the highest scoring tight end this week. I can't say I'd be angry with any of them showing up in my optimal lineups, but don't feel like any is necessary, either.
Defense / Special TeamsJaguars FD 4500 DK 2900
Proj Points FD - 7.68 DK - 7.68
I love the Jags this week, particularly on DraftKings. Much has been made of the departure of Jalen Ramsey, but the Jags have actually gotten it done with their front seven this season, which has racked up 21 sacks (4th best in the NFL) so far this season. The Jets' offensive line, meanwhile, has allowed the second most sacks in the NFL (26). They've got the second lowest implied total on the slate as well. This just seems like such an absurdly high floor match-up, and if Darnold blows up the way he did against the Pats this could be a big ceiling play as well.
Chargers FD 4100 DK 2300
Proj Points FD - 6.66 DK - 6.66
I'm not considering the Chargers on FanDuel, but this DraftKings price is outrageous. It's far from an electric, play making defense, but have you seen the Bears' offense recently? They just got done making the Saints' defense look like, well, the '85 Bears. Trubisky was awful against the Saints, and aside from the two garbage time touchdowns (both scored with 2:31 or less left in the game) Trubisky did very close to stone cold nothing all game. He's now averaging 5.2 yards per attempt on the season, which as you may have guessed, is tied for the very worst in the NFL with Josh Rosen. And now I can get a defense facing this guy for essentially the minimum price? Sign me up.
Saints FD 4400 DK 3500
Proj Points FD - 8.55 DK - 8.55
Murray has shown flashes of brilliance this season, but when you look at the numbers, things a lot more mundane. He ranks in the bottom quarter of the league among starters in passing touchdowns per game and yards per attempt in the air, and while he's always a threat on the ground, he's just not a top tier guy yet. He's also taken the 6th most sacks of any QB in the league. The Saints have been very solid on defense this year, ranking 6th in sacks and 14th in DVOA. The Cardinals are sitting at a 19 point implied total right now as well. All in all this is just a nice cash game option.