Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday, 10/28/19Monday is a big slate in the NBA with plenty of moving parts and some teams still trying to figure things out. We've got you covered with cash game considerations for FanDuel and DraftKings.
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Point GuardDejounte Murray FD - $7000 DK - $6100
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 36.09 DK - 35.38
Murray isn’t playing a ton of minutes, but when he’s on the court he’s about as efficient as it gets. Dude is averaging 12.5 shots in fewer than 24 minutes and has a 19 point, nine rebound, five assist, 2.5 steal line through the first two. That is about as as it gets considering the minutes and though Murray’s price has come up a bit since the start of the season, he’s still something of a value here. The Portland backcourt isn’t all that great shakes when it comes to defending around the perimeter though Murray’s game is predicated more around the midrange and getting to the basket. The only real concern here with Dejounte is the minutes stick in the lower-to-mid 20’s and that’s a thin margin when it comes to the price.
Trae Young FD - $9400 DK - $9000
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 46.29 DK - 49.26
The good news first: Young has been about as good as you can possibly be to start the season. He’s averaging a ridiculous 39 point/ nine assist/ seven rebound line through the first two. The second-year guard is putting it all together in a transition toward superstar status right before eyes. The minutes area also consistently high for a 2-0 Hawks’ team that might be a feisty squad going forward in the East. If you want to find a possible piece of *bad* news it’s that Young isn’t going to continue shooting 55% from three on ten attempts per game. There’s definitely some run hot with the scoring so keep that in mind when you look at the scoring output. But the assists and rebounds do show the ability to keep the fantasy scoring floor high even if the shot isn’t falling completely. That’s a great sign for cash games.
If Joel Embiid were to sit again then Ben Simmons (FD $9600 DK $8800) would be a cash game option again, especially on DraftKings.
Also, Stephen Curry (FD 9200 DK 9500) and the Warriors have really struggled to start the season. This is a good matchup against an uptempo Pelicans’ team. I don’t want to play him in cash here, but dude is still Steph and has big upside if the heat check gets into effect.
Shooting GuardJosh Hart FD - $5800 DK - $4800
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 29.08 DK - 29.33
Jrue Holiday has a knee sprain and I suspect he sits out again on Monday. Josh Hart drew the start on Saturday for the Pels and likely would again. He ran 34 minutes at the two and was second on the team in shots with 17. Dude would be in line for similar run on Monday and this time around will face a Warriors’ team that’s been demolished to start the season. They are -23.5 so far through two games and obviously the defense is a major issue. And I know it’s early in the season, but Golden State is playing at the 4th-fastest pace with the worst defensive efficiency (by a lot) in the league. They could just be the sweet spot of DFS opponents right now.
RJ Barrett FD - $6700 DK - $6100
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 34.98 DK - 36.81
The Knicks have been all over the map this season. For some stretches/games they’ve looked competent and even a bit dynamic on the offensive end. But then there’s times like the second half against Boston on Saturday when they look like an utter and complete mess. But one thing that’s been consistent to start the season is the rookie Barrett’s run and opportunity. He’s played 37, 36, 37 minutes and is put up more than 16 shots per game shooting the three ball well. At times, he’s taken over point guard duties and shown flashes of defensive peskiness. The price hasn’t totally corrected for the current minutes and I do think this is the plan going forward with Barrett this season. He’ll be facing a Chicago team that’s no great shakes on defense playing at an above average pace this season as well.
I’m not too discouraged by James Harden's (FD 11100 DK 10100) struggles to start the season. The usage is there, but he’s just not able to find the range on the three ball (3/26 to start the season). That will come around and I think he’s very affordable on DraftKings.
Small ForwardBrandon Ingram FD - $8500 DK - $7500
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 40.6 DK - 41.78
Ingram was in takeover mode on Saturday against the Rockets. With Jrue Holiday out of action (and Zion obviously on the shelf) Ingram was every bit the player the Lakers thought they were drafting back in the day. He had one of the best games of his career with 22 shots and a 35 point/ 15 rebound line that was the play of the day. He’d been line for similar usage, if not more, against the Warriors in a pace up matchup. Like I said with Hart, Golden State could be gearing toward a must-play DFS matchup if things going in a similar direction with this team. I suspect we see high ownership on Pelicans here with Ingram being the main DFS focus. Even if Holiday were to return I think he’s still a play, but definitely gets that added bump if Jrue sits.
Rodney Hood FD - $4000 DK - $3800
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 23.8 DK - 24.02
Kent Bazemore FD - $5300 DK - $3800
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 21.47 DK - 21.43
Mario Hezonja FD - $3600 DK - $3300
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 13.52 DK - 13.68
It’s mostly a coincidence that all three of these guys are listed as small forwards on FanDuel, all are on the same team and all stand to benefit from the Zach Collins injury that happened on Sunday. Collins suffered a shoulder injury that some think is a dislocation. That could have him missing some time and the already-undersized Blazers will now need to figure out what to do at the four. They were running smaller lineups to begin with so it stands to reason they go even more wing-heavy. Hood is already starting so pushing his minutes into the mid-30’s doesn’t’ at all feel like a stretch. He had a nice game against the Mavs on Sunday though is never going to a be big usage guy when sharing the court with Lillard and CJ McCollum.
Meanwhile, Hezonja and Bazemore should see upticks as well. Both played with the closing unit when trailing to Dallas on Sunday. Either could enter the starting lineup, play an undersized four and just try to make it up on offense on the other end. It isn’t an ideal situation for the Blazers, but we should be able to capitalize fantasy-wise. Both rebounded fine and could push towards 30 minutes. All three make for very good DraftKings’ plays where all are coming very cheap.
Similarly to Simmons, if Joel Embiid is out again then Tobias Harris (FD $7800 DK $6500) would stand to benefit from an uptick in minutes and usage. He went off on Saturday when the 76ers big man sat.
Power ForwardLauri Markkanen FD - $8000 DK - $7700
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 41.22 DK - 43.98
Sometimes, to start a season, it can be scary thinking about rostering a player who’s fantasy lines don’t look all that great. But there are a few reasons to like Markkanen here. He’s come out of the gate really struggling from three, shooting 14% on seven attempts per game. There’s bounce back potential against a Knicks team that’s been bottom third in defensive efficiency to start the season and is allowing among the most opponent possessions so far this season. Markkanen makes for a buy-low candidate considering the matchup and run bad from beyond the arc.
Draymond Green FD - $7000 DK - $7100
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 36.7 DK - 36.4
To say things haven’t gone according to plan for the Warriors to start the season would be a massive understatement. They’ve been waxed in their first two games and I don’t suppose there are a ton of adjustments to make outside of just starting to click better on offense. The defense has been bad, but this is a game against the Pelicans they theoretically should keep close. If so, then Draymond should have a high minutes floor and he hasn’t been overextended at all to start the season. If anything we might see outsized minutes from the the starters in a concentrated effort to not fall to 0-3. In a fast-paced game, Green should be able to accumulate the rebounds and defensive stats to make up for the lack of scoring in his fantasy profile.
Al Horford (FD $6900 DK $6200) would make for another plug and play option if Embiid sits again.
If he continues to start you have to like the price on Marquese Chriss (FD $3800 DK $3200) if the Warriors could actually keep a game close.
CenterRudy Gobert FD - $9000 DK - $8000
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 47.34 DK - 46.66
On DraftKings, we are still buying a bit low on Gobert considering he’s yet to pile on the stats he’s known best for: the defensive stuff. He’s averaging half the blocks and steals combined from last year and that’s almost for sure to change in the short term. The shot attempts are down with the Jazz bringing in Mike Conley, but the rebounding per minute is still there and Utah will face a Suns’ team playing Aron Baynes, Richaun Holmes and some Frank Kaminsky at the five. This is a smash spot for Gobert on the defensive end and could see some easier buckets near the basket.
Wendell Carter Jr. FD - $6300 DK - $6000
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 34.09 DK - 33.21
Carter had foul trouble in his first two games and then lost minutes in a blowout on Saturday. If things shake out correctly, I do think 28-30 minutes is the plan for the young big man. He’s averaging nearly a double-double (10 points, nine rebounds) in *just* 26 minutes far with about a block and steal each. Tick those minutes up 15-20% and these prices are looking a little too low against a bad Knicks’ team. Center isn’t all that deep a position even for a bigger slate on Monday so a Carter play is digging a bit deeper than I’m usually comfortable in cash. But that’s more a slate issue than anything else.
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