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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

11/09/2019
James Davis

FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 11/10/19

 

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Point Guard

Kyrie IrvingKyrie Irving FD - $9800 DK - $9700
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 48.65 DK - 49.98

What can you say about what Irving has done so far this season? He's put up career highs in every DFS category except for steals, and has only sacrificed a few percentage points of his field goal percentage in order to do so. It hasn't translated to a ton of real life basketball success just yet, but that's just not my concern as a DFS player. This Phoenix match-up isn't as good as it has been historically, but the Suns are still playing a top 11 PACE, and I think Kyrie will handle Rubio just fine.

Damian LillardDamian Lillard FD - $10200 DK - $10100
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 56.72 DK - 58.54

It's an interesting challenge play between Irving and Lillard. These two have been eerily similar this year. Let's have a look.

Lillard: 33.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, 6.9 assists, 2.6 turnovers, 1.3 steals, .4 blocks.

Irving: 31.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 2.6 turnovers, 1.3 steals, .6 blocks.

Lillard has been more efficient, but Irving has chipped in more counting stats. They're equals in every way, so where do we go for a tie-breaker? I'll go with the slight blowout risk in Portland, but honestly I'd be thrilled to play both.

Raul NetoRaul Neto FD - $3700 DK - $4500
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 26.38 DK - 26.85

Neto was a chalk option after he drew the start for Simmons against the Nuggets, and mostly delivered, scoring 13 points on 5-6 from the field and chipping in 6 assists as well. The price has crept up a little bit, but it's an all-world match-up with this hapless Hornets team, and I expect cash game players to roll it back with him once against.

Keep an eye on how the Trail Blazers handle Rodney Hood's absence. Anfernee Simons played 35 minutes after Hood went down, and he could be one of the better punts on the day as a result.

 
 

Shooting Guard

RJ BarrettRJ Barrett FD - $7200 DK - $6300
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 35.26 DK - 36.38

Much has been made of Barrett's huge minutes this season, and likely for good reason. Again, for DFS purposes, this can only be a good thing. The Dallas game notwithstanding, Barrett has been one of the most reliable sources of high floor production on his price this season, and the DraftKings price is particularly juicy. Cleveland has been a bottom 7 defense this season, and they're even worse than that against opposing guards thanks to the defensively limited back court of Sexton and Garland. Vegas sees this as a two point game, so Barrett's major risk (getting blown out) should be mitigated as well.

Devin BookerDevin Booker FD - $8400 DK - $7900
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 42.1 DK - 44.41
Devin Booker hasn't been amazing on these prices so far this season, but I'm a big believer that that's about the change. Early season sample size issues have taken hold, as Booker's overall contributions have declined in spite of him being a much better shooter this year. I think the rebounds tick back up shortly, and the steals as well. Add it all together, and Booker should be a value on these prices in good match-ups. Brooklyn has been a phenomenal match-up for opposing guards this season, pairing a top 4 pace with a bottom 12 defense. Booker looks like a great value in all formats.

Small Forward

Giannis AntetokounmpoGiannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11700 DK - $11200
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 60.62 DK - 62.49
Our system views Giannis as a particularly easy pay-up option today, and he's a big reason why you might be picking between Lillard and Irving instead of just playing both. Yes, the price is coming up, but he's still cheaper than he probably should be thanks to the high frequency of blowouts the Bucks have been involved in this season. There's some risk of that in this one against the Thunder, but the Bucks are only 7 point favorites for this road game. In just as many minutes as he played last year, Giannis is averaging more points, assists, rebounds, and blocks this season. The Thunder are not one of the four teams with someone who can guard him, so you can happily deploy him in any format.

Cedi OsmanCedi Osman FD - $4500 DK - $4600
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 25.08 DK - 26.01
Osman is just a good old fashioned value play. His opportunity has ticked up recently, and it looks like he should be in line for 33-37 minutes a game in normal game scripts. With Vegas seeing this one as a close affair, we should get just that here. With 24.3+ fantasy points in four of his last five games, Osman is bringing an excellent floor at a tough position on a small slate.

Power Forward

Al HorfordAl Horford FD - $6500 DK - $6200
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 38.29 DK - 37.59
Horford has just been flat out solid on these prices so far this season, averaging 36.9 fantasy points a game so far. With Simmons out of the picture for a bit, the Sixers starters are all shouldering a little bit more of a burden. Charlotte has given up 110 fantasy points a game to opposing centers and power forwards combined, the second highest number in the league after Chicago. It's a great match-up for Horford, and I love his floor for cash games.

Jarrett AllenJarrett Allen FD - $5500 DK - $6100
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 35.81 DK - 35.92

Allen was a 90%+ start in cash games when Jordan missed, and even though Jordan is probable in this game, it's really hard to believe that Allen is going to miss much playing time. Jordan has looked half dead on the defensive end, and Allen just blocked 5 shots against Portland. He's an across-the-board contributor at a low price tag, and as usual, power forward is an abomination. Definitely don't mind Allen here.

Center

Joel EmbiidJoel Embiid FD - $10600 DK - $9100
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 59.04 DK - 60.58

Embiid's value today will come entirely based on how many minutes he plays. It's a little unclear what the plan with him is right now, though. He's been in serious foul trouble in four of his five games this season, and it's been hard to get a grip on his true rotation. I'm guessing it's something like 35 minutes, and if that is the case, he is criminally cheap against this terrible Charlotte front court.

Tristan ThompsonTristan Thompson FD - $8500 DK - $7600
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 45.5 DK - 46.34

It's a career year for Thompson, and while the price has come up, it's for good reason. He's shooting a career high 13.6 shots per game, but he's been better than his career averages with a 55% field goal percentage. He's been more motivated on the boards and on the defensive end as well, posting career highs in blocks and rebounds as well. The Knicks will be worse against opposing centers with Mitchell Robinson down, and Thompson should eat here.

 

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