Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Thursday, 11/14/19
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Luka Doncic FD - $11200 DK - $10000
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 56.19 DK - 60.23
Is there anything more fun than Luka Doncic's sophmore season? The Mavs' young superstar as improved appreciably in every category this season, from his raw counting stats to his FG and FT percentages. If there is one criticism you can level, it's that he probably takes too many threes for a 32% shooter from deep. Do we care for our DFS purposes? Heck no! Shoot away, Luka. Today Doncic gets a terrific match-up against the hapless Knicks, and a potential blowout is the only thing that stands in the way of him easily paying value here.
Ricky Rubio FD - $7700 DK - $7400
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 44.76 DK - 45.23
I have never really believed that Rubio could warrant a near $8k salary, but I believe it wholly these days. He seems to have found the perfect system for his style in Phoenix, as he's asked to distribute, but is surrounded by enough shooting that it covers his own deficiencies in that area. He and Booker are a very complimentary duo, and Monty Williams seems to agree, as the duo played 77 combined minutes against the Lakers. Booker's price has come up a bit,but I think Rubio is still cheap enough to run as a value option on both sites.
Also considered: Frank Ntilikina, if you think the Knicks hang well enough for him to get his minutes.
Shooting GuardLou Williams FD - $7000 DK - $7700
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 45.39 DK - 47.34 With Kawhi Leonard likely sitting the second half of a back-to-back on Thursday it should be (mostly) the Lou Williams show. I say mostly because with Paul George reentering the fray that should cut down some on Lou-Will's insane (37%) usage rate with Leonard off the court this season. That being said, I don't think we see an overwhelming amount of minutes for PG who's likely still working his way back from a conditioning standpoint. Williams will likely be one of the chalkier plays on this slate.
Deandre Bembry FD - $4400 DK - $3900
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 24.03 DK - 23.54
J.J. Redick FD - $5000 DK - $4500
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 27.11 DK - 29.4
Wesley Matthews FD - $3500 DK - $4200
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 19.86 DK - 20.2
There is potentially a lot of value floating around at shooting guard today. Each of these plays is very similar, and I think it mostly comes down to what kind of salary you want to apportion to the position. Bembry should play huge minutes with Huerter ruled out, Matthews played 31 minutes against OKC with Middleton out (though he did suck), and played 37 minutes in Lonzo Ball's stead his last time out. All three of these guys are in great spots to get opportunity today, and are all reasonable plays. If I had to leave one out, it would be Matthews.
Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $12400 DK - $11700
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 69.18 DK - 70.93
Milwaukee is a double digit favorite in this one in spite of Middleton's absence, but most of that has to be because of what Giannis should do to these guys. With Middleton off the court, Giannis' already incredible time of possession should only rise, and Eric Bledsoe's recent surge isn't going to scare us off of him. With Antetokounmpo pounding the glass at an unprecedented rate, the floor is just, well, through the roof. Our system loves him as a terrific pay off for getting those cheap shooting guard plays. Treat yourself!
Kenrich Williams FD - $4700 DK - $4500
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 28.75 DK - 28.22
Another big beneficiary of the injury situation in New Orleans, Williams put up a huge game on 28 minutes against the Bobcats, and a worse game on 38 minutes against the Rockets. On a short slate, grabbing opportunity like this feels something like a no-brainer, though be aware that there is some blowout risk here depending on whether or not the Clippers are at full strength on the second half of a back to back.
Jabari Parker FD - $7200 DK - $7200
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 36.7 DK - 37.26
Power forward is rough today, as usual, but there is one standout option in Jabari Parker. Since moving into the starting lineup Parker has been a straightforward value play at prices like these, averaging almost 43 fantasy points a game over his last four. Today he gets a great spot against Dario Saric and this fast paced Suns team. Again, the position is just terrible - just take Parker and worry about who you're pairing with him.
Saric has been far from a sure thing recently, but Williams leaned heavily on him against the Lakers, and you have to think that his standing likely hasn't been better than it is now. He's cheap, and ultimately not especially risky. Favors is probably a sexier play, as he's logged back to back games with 29 minutes and has averaged 37 fantasy points in them. Assuming the Pelicans aren't bringing anyone back here and Favors continues to start, he is a great options on DraftKings in particular where he is just too cheap.
Aron Baynes FD - $6500 DK - $5900
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 34.18 DK - 34.03
I offer Baynes as the headliner here, as he's on six straight games with 29 or more fantasy points (including his monster 59 point outburst against the Warriors). While Baynes looks a little taxed minutes-wise, the per-minute production has been excellent, with the New Zealander contributing positively in all five categories. It's a solid match-up with the Alex Len/Damian Jones duo, and he's the highest floor option today.
And after Baynes, things get pretty sticky in a hurry. Jokic has a good match-up with Brooklyn, but he's averaging just better than 4x points per dollar on his prices this season. Harrell is likely too expensive to justify his back-up minutes. Carter and Lopez could be values, but big men are often the first ones on the chopping block in blowouts.
Center is really tough today, and you might just need to prioritize Baynes if you want to lock in any semblance of safety.