Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Friday, 11/15/19
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Malcolm Brogdon FD - $8200 DK - $7600
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 49.23 DK - 51.46
Brogdon was well on his way to value against the Thunder on Tuesday but the game ended up as a blowout and he finished with just 25 minutes. It’s a bit troubling that over the last three games, even in close ones that Brogdon’s minutes are *only* 32, 29, and 25 after he saw a steady diet of 35+ for a stretch. I’m still willing to buy on the upside though and think he’ll see plenty of run against the Rockets especially considering his defense will be key against the Harden/Westbrook pairing. Houston is running the second-fastest pace in the league this season and play a bottom-third defensive efficiency. This is a volume-up game for the Pacers and Brogan’s 21 point, nine assist, five rebound season line plays fine at these prices.
Cory Joseph FD - $4900 DK - $4600
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 24.48 DK - 24.3
Woof. Well, the dude was massive chalk (rightly so) on Tuesday when he got the start for the injured De'Aaron Fox. So it was good news that he was in literally everyone’s lineup when he stunk up the joint from a fantasy perspective. Dating back to his time with the Pacers, CoJo has always been a low, points-per-minute player, rarely initiating much of the offense and just generally taking an off-ball approach to his role as the “point guard”. The Kings won the game and he played a lot (38 minutes) barely scraping by on value thanks to two blocks and a steal. Otherwise, the three points, four rebounds and three assists are mind-bogglingly low for this much court time. I think, considering the price, I’m willing to go back there one more time on Joseph simply because it’s tough to think the floor kills you. But it’s a real testament to his game that we are even questioning a guy at these prices and these minutes maybe not finding his way into cash games.
I think you can consider Isaiah Thomas (FD $6300 DK $5300) at these prices as the minutes continue to trend up.
Bradley Beal FD - $9300 DK - $8500
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 47.14 DK - 48.79
Few other players in the game have Beal's minutes floor who’s played 39+ in each of the last three games. He ranks sixth among active players at 36 minutes per and the scoring (28 points per game) is actually up over last season even with fewer minutes. That’s because he’s shooting more threes (nine per game) and getting to the line more as well. One could make the case his 32% from beyond the arc is actually running bad considering he’s a 38% career shooter, but some of that may stem from the volume increasing. Overall, Beal looks like a safer cash game play against the Timberwolves because of the projected court time and Minnesota’s pace-up matchup.
Marcus Smart FD - $6500 DK - $5900
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 33.62 DK - 34.02
As expected, the Celtics continue to play the core starters big minutes in the absence of Gordon Hayward and I think that’s going to be a rather safe assumption going forward. This isn’t all that deep of a team and Smart’s versatility on the defensive end will lead to a ton of run. Not known really for his offensive game, he has gotten up double-digit shots in two of the last three games and scored 16+ in each. In fact, over the last two with Hayward out, Smart is averaging 16.5 points, 5.5 assists and 1.5 blocks. The zero steals also looks like something of an outlier considering he averages more than one a game on the season. The matchup against Golden State is perfect considering they are the worst defensive efficiency team in the league and Smart is still coming firmly in the mid tier.
I think you can still consider Buddy Hield (FD $7000 DK $6800) AND Bogdan Bogdanovic (FD $6900 DK $6700) considering their *new* roles with Fox out. But this Lakers’ matchup is a brutal one and the price is up on both after a chalk Tuesday.
Jaylen Brown FD - $7700 DK - $7500
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 38.86 DK - 39.36
Much the same as Marcus Smart, Brown has picked up a huge amount of slack for the Celtics with Gordon Hayward injured and over the last three games took 18, 16 and 19 shots representing nearly a 20% increase over his season stats. Of course, that’s been on the back of more minutes as well, but this is a player who has such a high floor now that there is one fewer body in the Celtics’ rotation. The 11 rebounds against the Mavericks probably won’t come around again, but I do think there’s room for growth on the 27% shooting from three considering he’s knocked them down at 36% for his career. Again, the matchup against the Warriors is choice and the price still hasn’t moved up enough on Brown considering the new role.
After Brown, this position is a little messy. LeBron James (FD $11600 DK $10800) is still an okay play at the price, but takes a bit of a hit with Anthony Davis back in the lineup and there are a couple of other ways to spend up on this slate.
Jarrett Culver (FD $4400 DK $4500) jumped back into the Wolves’ starting lineup even with Jeff Teague back in action. The minutes’ floor is low, but he’s coming cheap.
Jonathan Isaac (FD $7100 DK $6000) is in the midrange and been playing well. But we aren’t getting away with much at his price right now.
Domantas Sabonis FD - $9500 DK - $8700
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 46.2 DK - 48.98
This dude’s been a monster not the glass for the month of November averaging 16 rebounds a game which coincides with Myles Turner’s ankle injury. The latter is out again on Friday and Sabonis, in close games, is locked into high 30’s minutes, more than most other big men in the league. He’ll face a depleted Rockets’ front court that’s starting Tyson Chandler at center in place of Clint Capela and has no meaningful size beyond that. The price is reasonable on DraftKings especially and it seems like the double-double bonus is a near lock there. He’s in play on FanDuel mostly because the power forward position is thin on an almost nightly basis.
Nemanja Bjelica FD - $5100 DK - $5600
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 27.77 DK - 28.16
Good luck figuring this guy’s minutes out. 26, 24, 16, 19, 36 in the last five will make you scratch your head until you bleed. But with Fox out, the Kings are looking at new rotations and they’ve for sure shortened things up without Trevor Ariza as well. The latter is doubtful for Friday and that has me thinking Bjelica’s minutes are at least a bit on the safer side. Famous last words on that, but if he can push high 20’s then his production should be more than enough to hit value at these prices. I don’t think he’ll come close to repeating the 19 point, 12 rebound line from Wednesday, but that’s fine. He doesn’t need to in this salary tier.
Karl-Anthony Towns FD - $11400 DK - $10000
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 54.39 DK - 56.75
Washington hasn’t given it up specifically to opposing big this season, but overall they are the 29th ranked defensive efficiency team and just generally stink. Towns continues the evolution of his game, still averaging a whopping nine three point attempts per game while knocking them down at a 40% clip. For anyone, this is an incredible number. For a 7’0” center it’s simply something that doesn’t happen. He’s expensive for sure, and the guy below might be the place we take some savings, but Towns represents about as good a payup option you’ll see considering the matchup and just what he’s able to do in general.
Tyson Chandler FD - $3800 DK - $4000
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 23.53 DK - 22.6
This one amounts to a fairly easy one on Friday with Clint Capela already ruled out. Chandler will draw the start at center for Houston and should be a popular play on both sites. He’s only playing eight minutes a game on the season, so penciling him in for robust run probably isn’t in the cards. But 24-26 minutes at the starting center position would put him at value especially on the rebounding. You are mostly hoping for that and the blocks because he simply isn’t going to get any shots up in the lineup. But regardless, this is a natural punt play considering the situation.
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