Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Saturday, 11/16/19
This Saturday slate is full of injuries and it's going to make for some fascinating lineup building. It's going to be key to follow all of these injury situations, as that will open up a ton of value for us. As you'll see, banking on usage bumps is going to be the key focus of this article and it's going to be imperative to pair up the superstars with the role players who see major bumps. With that in mind, let's get into it!
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Teague has always been a consistent point guard but it's always been a matter of health. Considering that he's healthy now, we have to love him at this discounted price. Not only did he drop 33 DK points in his return to the lineup, he's also now averaging 28.7 DK points per game for the season. That's really all we can ask for from such a cheap player and he could be asked to do even more here with Andrew Wiggins potentially missing this game. The matchup is simply a bonus, with the Rockets ranked second in pace and 24th in total defense.Kendrick Nunn FD - $5400 DK - $5800
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 29.01 DK - 29.57
Nunn has been a revelation this season, averaging better than 5x points per dollar on these prices, and that's not even taking into consideration that his minutes and usage are at an all time high right now. In his last two games Nunn has averaged 21.5/4/6.5 and 2 steals. And today he gets a fantastic match-up with New Orleans, who pair the league's fastest pace with the 3rd worst defensive efficiency. I love Nunn in any format.
Aaron Holiday had increased time of possession after Brogdon went down last night, and if he's actually running the point tonight he is a tremendous value.
Harden is a good play on every single slate but this one it's impossible to fade him. The reason for that is because Russell Westbrook, Clint Capela, Eric Gordon and Danuel House are all expected to miss this game. That means his 39.4 percent usage rate should rise closer to 50 percent, which is truly scary from the best offensive player in the NBA. While it's only been a few games this season, Harden has a 49.8 percent usage rate while averaging 1.8 DK points per minute with those four off the floor. That's led to him averaging 61.5 DK points per game, which very well may be the floor here. Don't fade the beard!
Jimmy Butler FD - $9400 DK - $7600
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 48.8 DK - 47.41
Butler has quietly been a really nice surprise for his new club and this Heat team truly looks like one of the best teams in the East with him running the show. So far this season, Butler is averaging 18.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 2.8 steals per game. Those stat-stuffing abilities make him extremely attractive against the Pelicans, with New Orleans ranked third in pace, 28th in defensive rating and dead-last in points allowed. That makes Butler a nice contrarian play from Harden if you'd rather save some salary.
Kenrich Williams FD - $4500 DK - $5300
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 20.97 DK - 20.53
Since we picked high-end shooting guards, let's give you some value plays at small forward. Williams is just that, as he's found himself in quite the role with all of the injuries in New Orleans. With players like Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart all nicked up, Williams is in one of the best stretches of his career. Over his last three games, Williams is averaging 30.7 DK points per game across 32.3 minutes of action. That's monstrous production from such a cheap player and he should continue to see big minutes, as long as most of those aforementioned players sit out. If Ingram returns, however, Williams can no longer be considered.
De'Andre Hunter FD - $4600 DK - $4700
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 22.6 DK - 22.71
This is simply a minutes play. Much like the Pelicans, the Hawks have a ton of injuries themselves. They're expected to be without John Collins, Kevin Huerter and Evan Turner for this game, opening up a ton of minutes for Hunter. Over his last three games, De'Andre is averaging 26.6 DK points per game across 37.7 minutes of play. That 38-minute total is one of the highest marks in the NBA and it's simply too much playing time to fade from a player south of $5,000 on both sites. In the five games where Hunter has played at least 30 minutes, he's scored at least 25 DK points in all of them, making him one of the best floor plays out there.Keep an eye on the Malcolm Brogdon situation. Justin Holiday got the start for him in the second half of last night's game, and with Brogdon doubtful, he could be in line for almost 40 minutes on a near minimum salary.
Bam Adebayo FD - $8000 DK - $7500
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 42.96 DK - 43.45
Adebayo was a favorite of mine coming into the year and he appears to be in the midst of a breakout season. With Hassan Whiteside being shipped off to Portland, Adebayo has been asked to be the primary center, which is all we wanted for a per-minute monster like this. That's done wonders for him too, with Adebayo averaging 13.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.4 blocks per game. That equates to about 40 fantasy points, making him one of the best centers in the NBA. You wouldn't know that by looking at his price though, as he should be $1,000 more on each site. The matchup is simply the icing on the cake, with New Orleans ranked dead-last in total defense.
Derrick Favors FD - $7200 DK - $6200
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 35.79 DK - 36.68
Favors is coming off a 20-20 gem in his most recent game and now has three consecutive double-doubles headed into this matchup. What's really important is that he's played at least 29 minutes in all three of those games, indicating to us that he's finally fully healthy (and fully trusted). Favors is averaging 42 DK points per game in that three-game span and that's the stud that we've been waiting for all season long. We're certainly not worried about the matchup either, with Miami owning a 27th OPRK against opposing PF/C's according to DraftKings.
Karl-Anthony Towns FD - $11500 DK - $10100
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 53.92 DK - 56.48
With Andrew Wiggins seemingly sitting this game out, Towns is easily one of the best plays on the board. With Wiggins off the floor, he's leading the T'Wolves with a 33 percent usage rate while averaging an absurd 2.2 DK points per minute. That rate would equate to 66 fantasy points if he plays 30 minutes and that appears to be the floor with KAT averaging 55 DK points across 32.4 minutes a game this season. Playing Houston isn't too shabby either, with the Rockets sitting second in pace, 24th in total defense and playing this game without Clint Capela.
Tyson Chandler FD - $4200 DK - $4200
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 23.08 DK - 22.09
The last sentence of the Towns write-up makes this a great play. With Capela sitting out, Chandler should be starting for the Rockets, guaranteeing him 20-25 minutes of play. That's huge for a guy who's averaging exactly a fantasy point-per minute this season, making him a great value at $4,200 on both sites. We're really not worried about KAT's defense either, as he's one of the worst defenders at the center position in the NBA. Not to mention, Minnesota ranks 25th in total defense.