Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 11/17/19
Is there a better time of year for DFS than Sundays during the fall? With a great slate of NFL going on today as well, you'll have your pick of ways to make tons of money. This article focuses on today's main slate, but don't forgot to hop in our member's only chat room if you'd like to discuss the early slate as well!
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There is nothing that tickles me more than a young (some pun intended) player making "the leap." In case you haven't noticed, Trae Young is doing exactly that. In his Sophmore year, Young is shooting four more times per game, and doing so with 4% more efficiency. He's shooting 2.8 more threes per game with a 6% higher efficiency. He's also clowning people by dribbling through their legs. And you know what? He hasn't been so bad for DFS purposes either. The Hawks are running him for absurd 39+ minute rotations in close games, and he's topped 60 FanDuel points in three of his last four games. The Lakers aren't an ideal match-up, but they are also designed to shut down basically every kind of player except for Trae Young and other small guards. I love Young to go off today.
Ky Bowman FD - $3800 DK - $3000
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 24.67 DK - 25.07
In the three games that D'Angelo Russell missed at the beginning of November, Bowman played an average of 37 minutes a game and scored an average of 27 FanDuel points per game. New Orleans has played the league's fastest pace with the third lowest defensive efficiency rating. This is one of the easiest plays of the season, and Bowman's presence alone almost makes this slate worth playing.
Jrue Holiday FD - $9400 DK - $8400
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 50.95 DK - 51.2
Jrue has already pretty much been worth these prices this season, and the absence of Josh Hart and potentially Brandon Ingram just make this situation even better. The Warriors have been awful defensively this season, ranking dead last in the league in defensive efficiency by a country mile, and their ongoing injury woes can't help that situation much. Jrue is one of the only professional basketball players in this game, and it's hard to imagine him missing value here.
Jordan Poole FD - $4400 DK - $4100
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 22.77 DK - 23.37
So D'Angelo Russell is missing here, but importantly, so is Damion Lee. Poole would be in consideration thanks only to the disappearance of Russell and all the minutes and usage that need to be redistributed, but with Lee out as well the Dubs find themselves flat out short on bodies. Poole is cheap enough to help you enable the great expensive plays, and on a short slate a floor like this can't be ignored.
LeBron James FD - $11800 DK - $10700
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 61.24 DK - 63.79
Another of my favorite payoffs today. With so much value in the New Orleans/Golden State game, you will have room to grab a few expensive plays. In case you hadn't noticed, LeBron has entered his fourth prime - where he's dealing out more assists per game than any player in the NBA without really missing a beat in any other facet of the game. Atlanta's promising young wings are quite simply no match for the King, and this DraftKings price in particular looks pretty egregious.
Alec Burks FD - $4500 DK - $4900
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 31.74 DK - 32.44
Kenrich Williams FD - $4800 DK - $5400
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 33 DK - 32.21
It won't be a great use of your time to describe why each and every one of these plays is a good one, but there are a few notes on these two plays. The Warriors will really rely on Burks' ability to put up any sort of volume of shots here, and even if he's coming off the bench, I have a hard time imagining him missing on his FD price.
As for Williams, he is a little bit more dependent on Ingram's status, but if Ingram is out again Williams is one of the premier plays on the slate.
Also considered: Troy Brown.
Derrick Favors FD - $7400 DK - $7000
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 40.85 DK - 41.72
Have you seen what Favors has been up to recently? After posting back to back double doubles he dropped a savage 20/20 game on the Clippers, and it's going to be hard for the Pelicans to justify taking any of his minutes even when Okafor returns. It's a great match-up with the Warriors, though he could draw a little heat from Draymond Green here. Still, Favors is finally healthy, and plenty physical to deal with Draymond's attention down low. Power forward isn't as bad today as it often is, but Favors should still be a headliner.
Editor's note: This article was written before Favors tweaked his back last night. If he sits, Jaxson Hayes could be an excellent play tonight.
Jabari Parker FD - $7600 DK - $7200
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 37.52 DK - 37.94
Parker has just been putting it on people since moving into the starting lineup, and with an average of 44.75 fantasy points in his last four games, it's hard to argue that he's appropriately priced. The 13.5 shots a game he's taking this year are the highest of his career, and he's making a career best 55% of them. Could Parker have finally found the home where he'll deliver on the talent that led the Bucks to using the 2nd overall pick in the 2014 draft on him? It looks like it - and I'm a buyer.
Nikola Vucevic FD - $8800 DK - $8200
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 44.9 DK - 46.75
I'm 90% sure Vuc listens to the DFSR podcast, because since our co-founder Doug Norrie called him out for taking it easy after a contract year before the Dallas game, the Magic's star center has been shredding everyone in his path, averaging 19 points and 13.8 rebounds in his five games since. He gets a phenomenal match-up with the Wizards, who have posted the league's 2nd worst defensive efficiency this season, and been about that bad to opposing big men as well.
Thomas Bryant FD - $6600 DK - $6300
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 34.88 DK - 35.95
There's always foul trouble risk when you're dealing in Thomas Bryant stock, but when the good comes it can be awfully good. He's averaging 5x points per dollar on these prices this season, and his up and down nature has kept DFS owners away and his price down. In a game where the Wizards are not as susceptible to being blown out as usual (sorry about the faint praise), I think Bryant gets his full run of minutes with potential for 40 fantasy point upside.