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    Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

    11/19/2019
    Chris Durell

    Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – The RSM Classic

    Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.

    The RSM Classic

    The final full-field event of 2019 is here as the PGA Tour travels to the Sea Island Resort in Georgia for the RSM Classic. With a strong field in Dubai for the DP World Tour Championship, this event lacks the star power but is still led by Webb Simpson(#12) and Matt Kuchar(#22) who are both ranked inside the Top 25 in the Official World Golf Rankings.

    This is also a week where a multi-course rotation is used for the first two days. Each golfer will play one round on the Seaside course and one round on the Plantation course on Thursday and Friday and all golfers who make the cut(Top 65 & ties) will play their final two rounds on the Seaside course only. The two-course rotation at this event started back in 2015 with just the Seaside course used in previous years. Let's take a look at the courses with the most emphasis going into the Seaside which will host three of the four rounds.

    Sea Island Resort(Seaside Course)
    Par 70 - 7,005 Yards

    The Seaside Course is a Links-Style Par 70 that comes in on the shorter side at just over 7,000 yards. The fairways are average width but with a ton of danger lurking outside the fairway(water, thick rough, native areas), golfers will once again be heavy on a "Less than Driver" strategy off the tee. Because of this, we have seen the average driving accuracy over 70% almost every year since. The greens are also larger than average(7,200 sq feet) which drives up the Greens in Regulation number putting emphasis on not only Proximity but we also see, for the most part, good or at least above average putters do well here. It is the harder of the two course's but there will be bridies as it has ranked outside the Top 25 in difficulty in each of the last five seasons. Get that Birdie or Better % in your models.

    Sea Island Resort(Plantation Course)
    Par 72 - 7,070 Yards

    The Plantation Course is right around the same length(7,070) as the Seaside Course after the redesign by Davis Love III. It is also a Par 72 and has played much easier ranking 30th, 43rd, 48th, and 42nd in difficulty in the four years it has been used in this event. Most of the scoring on this course will come from the Par 5's which have made up over 45% of the total birdies in the four years despite only making up 22% of the holes.

    Previous Five Winners

    • 2018 - Charles Howell III(-19)
    • 2017 - Austin Cook(-21)
    • 2016 - Mackenzie Hughes(-17)
    • 2015 - Kevin Kisner(-22)
    • 2014 - Robert Streb(-14)

    Top Stats in the Model

    • Strokes Gained: Approach
    • Proximity
    • Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
    • Birdie or Better %
    • Par 4 Scoring(heavily weighted on 400-450 yards)

    When breaking down the top stats I use a combination of my own cheatsheet and the tools over at FantasyNational.com.

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    Top Tier Targets

    Webb Simpson
    World Golf Ranking (#12)
    Vegas Odds (8/1)
    Draftkings ($11,600)
    FanDuel ($11,800)

    Webb is the top player in this field and one of just two players ranked inside the Top 25 of the World Golf Rankings. He also checks off almost every box this week starting with the stats as he ranks(in this field) 4th in SG: Approach, 11th in Par 4 Scoring(25th from 400-450 yards), 17th in Birdie or Better %, and 2nd in SG: Putting over the last 24 rounds(via FNGC). He didn't really have much course history to talk about until last year when he came within a stroke of winning and while he has only played once this fall at the Shriners, he did finish T7 while hitting 70% of his fairways and 83% of greens in regulation. As the most expensive golfer, Webb is not the optimal path for cash games but is easily the class of the field and a top GPP this week.

    Harris English
    World Golf Ranking (#185)
    Vegas Odds (28/1)
    Draftkings ($10,000)
    FanDuel ($11,200)

    If you are on "Team Course History" it is probably best just to scroll on by this next writeup. English has played here each year since the two-course rotation came into play in 2015 and has finished T25, T81, T139, and T46. While this doesn't make us feel all warm and fuzzy inside when paying over $10K, he has never come in with the form he has this fall season. He has played five events in the fall season finishing T6 or better in four of them while averaging a score of 68.2 per round. Hard to ignore the recent stats as well as he ranks(in this field) 1st in Par 4 Scoring(2nd from 400-450), 1st in Birdie or Better %, 3rd in SG: Off the Tee, 24th in Fairways Gained, and 17th in SG: Putting over his last 24 rounds. English is in play in all formats this week.

    Mid Tier Targets

    Brian Gay
    World Golf Ranking (#162)
    Vegas Odds (40/1)
    Draftkings ($8,800)
    FanDuel ($10,000)

    After missing the cut here in 2016 he has posted finishes of T3 and T23 the last two years and is 6th in SG: Total and 1st in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds at Sea Island Resort. He has also had a terrific start to the fall season not only making all six cuts but also tallying four Top 25's and two Top 10 finishes while averaging 86.1 DraftKings points per tourney. He also ranks Top 5 in Par 4 Scoring and Birdie or Better % over the last 24 round sample size(via FNGC). He is going to be one of the highest owned players of the week but easily my favorite PTS/$ play in all formats and worth an outright bet at 40-1 as well.

    Joel Dahmen
    World Golf Ranking (#100)
    Vegas Odds (75/1)
    Draftkings ($7,600)
    FanDuel ($9,700)

    It has been an up and down start to the season for Dahmen but he does have two Top 10's in six events coming into this week averaging 69.9 DK points per tourney. A couple things stand out when looking at the stats this week. On my sheet, he is Top 20 in ball striking and while he ranks 42nd in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds(via FNGC), he leads this field in proximity in that sample size. In that same 24 round sample, he ranks 62nd in birdie or better gained but the good news is that he is 20th in opportunities gained and is currently losing about a stroke more putting than his long term putting form. He showed signs of positive regression last week finishing Top 10 in putting average. At these prices, I will have exposure in all formats.

    Value Target

    Brian Stuard
    World Golf Ranking (#135)
    Vegas Odds (75/1)
    Draftkings ($7,400)
    FanDuel ($9,600)

    Stuard returns to Sea Island with some up and down course history but looking closer it has directly correlated with his form going into the event. The good news on that front is that he has four Top 30's including a Top 5 at the Shriners and T23 last week at the Mayakoba. He also checks off almost every stat in my model ranking 13th in SG: Approach, 5th in Proximity, 16th in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Fairways Gained. The only stat box he doesn't check is Biride or Better(87th) but he is, however, 2nd in Opportunities Gained so we can expect some positive regression in that area as well. Stuard is in play in all formats.

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