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Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 13 - 11/28/19

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Carson WentzCarson Wentz FD 7300 DK 5800
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 20.4 DK - 20.74

The recipe of starting quarterbacks against the Miami Dolphins this season has been, generally, a winning strategy and we have a few more weeks to put it into practice. The last two weeks have been especially great for opposition QBs with Baker Mayfield putting up 27.5 DraftKings points in Week 12 and Josh Allen going for 33.84 in Week 11. Now Wentz will get a turn. Wentz completed 73% of his passes in Week 12 against the Seahawks though threw two interceptions and missed a couple of very easy throws, one that would have almost definitely been a Miles Sanders touchdown. This is a smash spot for Wentz though and he’s the 10th most expensive QB on DK and 12th on FanDuel. It’s just too good a value considering the opponent and works perfectly for fitting in some of the very expensive skill position guys at RB and WR.

Patrick MahomesPatrick Mahomes FD 8600 DK 7400
Opponent OAK
Proj Points FD - 23.05 DK - 24.26

He’s listed second here only because of price. Mahomes, coming off a bye week with a fully healthy receiving corps is in a great spot to crush in Week 13. Oakland has the 29th ranked defense in DVOA this season and are coming off a week in which Sam Darnold picked them apart. Mahomes should have his way here and the Chiefs have, deservedly, the highest implied total of Sunday’s main slate at 30.5. He looked, dare-I-say-it, human against the Chargers in Week 11, but that was following a 446 yard, 3 TD performance against the Titans in Week 10. He has a 19:2 TD:INT rate on the season and even got out in the running game two weeks ago with 59 yards, his highest of the season.

Other Thoughts
I don’t want to run Lamar Jackson into the 49ers defense this week, but man if there was any quarterback to do it with it would be Jackson. He just continues the world crushing tour this season following a dismantling of the Rams on Monday night.

We had Jameis Winston as a borderline cash play for Week 12 and he was very Jameis-y in his final line. He got to 300+ yards again with three touchdowns, but also managed his customary two interceptions as well. This isn’t quite a good a spot against the Jaguars, but he should at least be in the discussion.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffreyChristian McCaffrey FD 11000 DK 10500
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 27.5 DK - 30.44

RunCMC has been on an historic pace and he’s still within striking distance of the most yards from scrimmage in a season. Chris Johnson’s 2,509 in 2009 is the high-water mark and right now McCaffrey is on pace for 2,486. He’ll get a chance to pad the stats this week against a very weak Redskins’ team ranked 21st in DVOA against the run. McCaffrey is in the sweet spot for running backs this week as a -10 home favorite with the team very much knowing there’s a historical context to his usage. McCaffrey’s 27.5 rushes+targets per game this season are a full10% more than the next closest running back (Fournette) and he’s unquestionably the best cash game play at the position. What you’re only asking wondering about now is the price. On FanDuel, the salary is do-able but on DraftKings you are going to really have to make some concessions to fit him in a lineup. This might be the week though to just suck it up and pay the piper.

Leonard FournetteLeonard Fournette FD 7600 DK 7500
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 20.61 DK - 22.4

Speaking of Fournette, last week Doug Marrone came out and said the Jags were going to work to get Fournette much more involved in the game plan. This coach-speak turned out to be a massive understatement. Dude finished with a whopping 36 touches (26 carries, 12 targets) against the Titans and finished with 159 total yards and two touchdowns. Considering the amount of touches, the yards really weren’t all that robust, but man there are just very few running backs in football with this kind of opportunity. And you have to assume it sticks this week as well. The Bucs are a *funnel* defense in that they are much worse against the pass (25th in DVOA) than the run (1st) but I want to call Fournette relatively game script independent here. It helps also that the price is totally reasonable on both sites, especially FanDuel where he’ll likely see massive ownership.

Jonathan WilliamsJonathan Williams FD 6800 DK 5300
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 17.17 DK - 18.32

One reason we can think about paying up for McCaffrey is the existence of Jonathan Williams in the Colts’ backfield. Filling in for Marlon Mack in Week 12, he took 45 of the 67 offensive snaps and touched the ball 29 times (26 carries, 3 targets). This usage really isn’t sustainable, but it doesn’t’ even need to be at these prices. He’s not priced like a workhorse running back and clearly is in this Colts’ offense. They are two-point home favorites against the Titans. The issue, of course, is that Tennessee is actually much better against the run this season, ranked 5th in DVOA as compared to their 23rd ranking against the pass. But I do think this is still a spot to play Williams and hope the game script goes in his favor.

Other Thoughts
If Damien Williams has a clean bill of health going into this week then he makes for such an excellent play. The price is super low and he was the bellcow back in Week 10 before getting hurt. This is some of the most important news of the week.


Wide Receivers

D.J. MooreD.J. Moore FD 6800 DK 6800
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 17.96 DK - 21.15

For some reason, and honestly I can’t really fathom why, people just couldn’t talk themselves into D.J. Moore for cash in Week 12. We had him in every lineup but I was shocked to see his number at around 20% on FanDuel and 5% on DraftKings. Whoops. We had him in every lineup and he delivered with six receptions for 126 yards and two touchdowns. Since Week 5, this guy has been a top-5 target and yards wide receiver and is only the 11th most expensive FD WR and 6th on DK. The FanDuel price continues to be a joke and, once again (I sound like a freaking broken record here) he’s a must play there. I suppose it’s a little close on DraftKings, but not really. He’ll face a bottom-of-the-barrel Redskins defense in a game the Panthers really need to win to keep in the NFC playoff hunt.

DaVante AdamsDaVante Adams FD 8000 DK 7000
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 18.4 DK - 22.15

Since returning from injury in Week 9, Adams has gone right back to being an elite target wide receiver, averaging 11 targets per game. He’s had three tough matchups against top secondaries in the Chargers, Panthers and 49ers in that stretch. But that won’t be the case against the Giants in Week 13. The latter rank 28th in DVOA against the pass and Adams won’t be challenged even in the slightest. He’s a fantastic DraftKings full PPR option at *only* $7000. It’s a little closer on FanDuel where rostering three expensive RBs could be the way to go and that could leave Adams’ $8K price tag looking a little too steep.

DeVante ParkerDeVante Parker FD 6000 DK 5700
Opponent PHI
Proj Points FD - 13.75 DK - 16.08

Since Week 7, DeVante Parker is a top-4 target wide receiver in all of football (55) ranking behind only Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins and Julian Edelman. That’s really saying something and because the Dolphins are constantly losing because they stink, it stands to reason Parker will continue having a high floor on the looks in the passing game. They are underdogs again this week and Parker is a reasonable price on both sites, but especially on FanDuel. He’s been productive in the yards as well, ranking 5th overall since Week 7. This is just a good play no matter how you dice it and he offers a high floor without breaking the bank.

Other Thoughts
I don’t mind the price on Keenan Allen this week but am a little worried he’ll draw the Chris Harris shadow coverage out of the slot.

Christian Kirk looks like a fine play as well for his price.


Tight Ends

Jack DoyleJack Doyle FD 5000 DK 3300
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 9.28 DK - 11.51

Mo Alie-CoxMo Alie-Cox FD 4000 DK 2500
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 6.99 DK - 8.78

Eric Ebron is out for the season and T.Y. Hilton is iffy for Week 13. The Ebron news, almost alone, opens up opportunity for the tight ends in Indy. Ebron was tied for the team-lead in passing targets for the Colts (albeit Hilton also had 52 in four fewer games) and one should assume some of that goes back Doyle’s way. But Indy has also shown a willingness to go double-tight end get multiple guys in the mix. That’s where Alie-Cox comes in and I think he’s for sure an endzone/lightening in a bottle TD tight end this week. I think we have enough of a track record on the Colts’ game plan and there is something of a 1:1 swap from Ebron to these two guys.

Greg OlsenGreg Olsen FD 5100 DK 4400
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 10.71 DK - 12.73

Over the last four weeks, Olsen is averaging seven targets per game and a 5/60 line. He’s not going to have much touchdown equity in this offense because of McCaffrey and the receivers, but I think the poor is high enough to consider in cash games. As mentioned, Washington is much worse against the pass this season and the Panthers’ pass game is in play for cash.

Other Thoughts
Look, Zach Ertz is about as good cash game option as you’ll see at the position right now. The last three weeks he’s gone for 11, 11 and 14 targets for an average of 10 catches and 96 yards. That’s WR1 type s@#$ and he’s worth the price. The issue comes in what happens when/if you pay up for McCaffrey and Fournette. At that point, there’s going to be a price squeeze. But if he was a chalk play, that would also feel correct.

Defense / Special Teams

BrownsChargers FD 3900 DK 3100
Opponent DEN
Proj Points FD - 8.00 DK - 8.00

The Broncos are a little up in the air on the quarterback situation this week with Brandon Allen possibly ceding the duties to Drew Lock. It probably doesn’t really matter because the offense will almost definitely still be a problem. Allen’s been terrible and it’s hard to imagine Lock is much better. The Chargers, even on the road, represent a solid cash game value at their mid-tier price points.

BrownsPanthers FD 4700 DK 3800
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 9.2 DK - 9.2

The Redskins are a borderline disaster, making the Panthers one of the top options on the slate. Washington allows more than three sacks per game to opposing defenses and the Panthers are priced down some because of a recent run against good offenses. This won’t be the case with the Redskins who come in with a paltry 14.75 implied points.

BrownsBrowns FD 4600 DK 2600
Opponent PIT
Proj Points FD - 9.2 DK - 9.2

Pittsburgh is going to roll out Devin Hodges at quarterback this week and the Steelers’ offense has been kind of a mess this season. Their 216 points ranks 26th in the NFL and it’s hard to imagine there’s much room for improvement going forward because of their injuries and just general lack of talent to begin with. The Browns aren’t an elite defense or anything, but the matchup is choice for the price.



image sources

  • Cowboys Panthers Football: (AP Photo/Jason E. Miczek)

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