Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Tuesday, 12/3/19It’s a packed Tuesday of NBA action for DraftKings and FanDuel. There are superstars like Harden, Doncic, Lebron and Davis. But also some value plays opening up in plus matchups.
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Point GuardLuka Doncic FD - $12400 DK - $11300
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 60.83 DK - 64.93
When we are lining up fantasy matchups a quick and dirty way to target players is to find opposing teams with fast paces and bad defense. The Pelicans offer just that kind of opportunity. They are the fifth-fastest pace in the league and play the 24th-ranked defensive efficiency. That’s a breeding ground for big fantasy nights. And few players in the game offer the kind of upside as Doncic right now. He’s spent the last month or so averaging 32 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists (that’s a triple-double folks) and has done just about everything you could hope for. Oh, and did I mention he’s only 20 years old. The price is way up there, but on a big slate value should be a little easier to come by and Doncic’s game has such a high floor it’s unlikely he kills you in this matchup.
Markelle Fultz FD - $5900 DK - $5500
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 31.41 DK - 30.99
I mentioned we are looking for opponents who offer fast pace and no defense before, and it’s an even better situation with the Wizards. They are actually the very best example of this with the fastest pace (107.8) and the stone-worst defensive efficiency. Stacking against the Wiz is almost always going to yield big fantasy days. Fultz has been given more and more opportunity over the course of the season. He’s starting for the Magic and has averaged right around 30 minutes per game over the last five. That’s led to 15 points, six assists and three rebounds per game with some steals thrown in as well. This is such a good spot for him and the Magic and I don’t mind the mid-tier pricing either.
Lonzo Ball (FD 6200 DK 5400) hopped back in the starting lineup, played 33 minutes and went for 14 points, seven assists and four rebounds. He was even decent from three going 4-8. I don’t mind the DraftKings’ price if this is going to be his steady opportunity going forward.
Shooting GuardJames Harden FD - $12000 DK - $12500
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 61.4 DK - 64.47
Harden’s already been a little bit of “wuut”” this season, seemingly scoring at will for long stretches and doing away with common preconceptions about what an NBA player can do if given free reign over an offense. He’s averaging a ridiculous 39 points a game to go along with eight assists and six rebounds. Sure, stylistically, you might not like what he’s putting out there. That’s fine (and you’re wrong) because from a DFS perspective the floor is just too damn high to ignore. He’ll still get close to minutes in quasi-blowouts which might even be a consideration here against the Spurs. Harden is an easy cash game play for this Tuesday slate.
Ben McLemore FD - $3700 DK - $5100
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 22.59 DK - 23.45
Danuel House is currently questionable though that’s probably close to doubtful for Tuesday’s game. If he were to sit then McLemore likely becomes a chalk play on this slate, at least on FanDuel. He’s coming very cheap there last game in which he got the start for House posted a 24 point/13 rebound line that basically won you everything if you had him in lineups (like we did). Both the scoring and boards are complete outliers on these minutes, so you shouldn’t really expect that again, but the floor is so high on his production if House sits again.
If House is back in the lineup for the Rockets today then you’ll of course have to pivot off of McLemore. DeMar DeRozan (FD 8200 DK 7200) is a very interesting play if LaMarcus Aldridge has to sit out again. DDR would instantly be a high floor play in this matchup against the Rockets if the Spurs can avoid getting killed.
Take a listen to Doug’s Brooklyn Nets Podcast, We Got Nets:
Small ForwardRudy Gay FD - $5300 DK - $5200
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 31.08 DK - 31.87
Gay entered the starting lineup for the Spurs two games ago and though the team stinks, has been a moderate fantasy contributor in the short term. He put up 12 points, three boards and three steals+blocks in 23 minutes in a blowout loss to the Pistons. In the win over the Clippers he struggled from the field going 2-9 but did get on the glass for six rebounds. I think he sticks in the starting lineup and has a chance for a volume scoring game because the Rockets run the second-fastest pace in the league.
Tim Hardaway Jr. FD - $5000 DK - $4600
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 28.22 DK - 29.59
Hardaway has started in the last fur games for the Mavericks (3-1 in that stretch) and played bigger minutes in a few of them. From a fantasy perspective, he’s dependent on scoring considering Luka and to a lesser extent Porzingis do so much on the court for Dallas. But THJ did pop off for 26 points against Phoenix and 31 against Houston on volume shooting from three in both. This is a matchup against the Pelicans that offers the same kind of upside. Again, it’s a little risky because you aren’t going to get a ton else from Hardaway and if the shot isn’t falling it’s problematic. But small forward is also a weaker position in Tuesday’s slate.
If you could ever trust Jonathan Isaac (FD 8000 DK 6900) on 33 minutes then this is a smash spot for him. But the run just comes and goes too often.
Power ForwardAaron Gordon FD - $6200 DK - $5700
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 30.77 DK - 31.51
Gordon has come back from injury and been a complete disaster in the last two games. Not the lead-in you were looking for when it came to a DFS play? I get it. But it’s just the reason we are getting him at such a nice price. He’s coming way too cheap for a guy who should play low-30’s minutes against the worst defensive efficiency team in the league in the Wizards. Gordon is 2-9 from three in his last two and 4-22 from the field. These numbers won’t continue and he has a high floor at these prices.
Anthony Davis FD - $11200 DK - $9600
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 59.63 DK - 59.04
It rarely feels amazing rostering Davis in cash because he can take an ill-timed trip to the locker room or just come up short in general. His fantasy production has been a bit up and down this season for a bunch of different reasons. The rebounds come and go and, from a fantasy scoring perspective, he’s become tied to the defensive stats a little too much. That being said, this is a spot I’m willing to pay for against the Nuggets. I’m not worried about the minutes at all and the DraftKings’ price is a total joke.
Like his Magic pals Khem Birch (FD 5600 DK 4700) is also in a great spot against the Wiz. He’s playing about 30 minutes a game starting for Vuce and has been decently effective over the last two games with double-digit rebounds in both.
CenterAndre Drummond FD - $9800 DK - $9100
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 50.96 DK - 50.89 The Pistons throttled the Spurs last game which buzzed off Drummond’s run, but this is a guy Detroit wants to play about 36-38 minutes a game when things are close. And there’s tremendous upside on his fantasy stat line when that’s the case. His scoring is down a bit with Blake Griffin back in the mix, but the rebounding is still alive and well. He’s averaging more than 17 boards a game and has gone for 20+ seven times this season. Cleveland is a pace-down matchup, but they are weaker on the interior allowing above average scoring and rebounding to opposing centers this season. Drummond’s price is down a bit in the short term and this is a great spot to buy.
After Drummond things get a lot uglier real quick. Thomas Bryant (FD 6300 DK 5600) is an interesting mid-tier play but the minutes have been all that robust in the short-term.
If Lamarcus Aldridge is out again then I think you can consider Jakob Poeltl (FD 5100 DK 4800) as a low-upside, decent floor play.
I really like the DraftKings price on Tristan Thompson (FD 7400 DK 6000) and he’s a borderline cash play there against the Pistons.
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