Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 12/4/19
After a slow DFS night on Tuesday, we're back at it with a 10-game schedule here. What's fascinating is that we have all 10 games with a spread of seven points or fewer. That's awesome with so many blowouts recently and that should make things easier on us. With that in mind, let's get into it!
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We have some studs later on, so let's begin with some value plays at point guard. While we didn't really expect to see Melton find himself into any of our articles this season, here we are. An injury to Ja Morant is what's really opened things up for him, as that has garnered Melton at least 23 minutes in back-to-back games. More importantly, that has led to him scoring at least 33 DK points in both of those outings, severely out-playing Tyus Jones. If he continues to play like that, look for him to get more minutes and possibly start ahead of Jones. We're also not concerned with a 19th-ranked Bulls defense either, as these two terrible teams should play a competitive game.
With Mike Conley missing this game because of a hamstring issue, Mudiay should find himself as the starter. That's big news for a stat-stuffing player like this, as Mudiay was a solid fantasy option for the Knicks last season. He's actually always been a solid fantasy producer which is evident when you see that he's averaging 14.4 DK points in 15.3 minutes a game this season. That's a fantasy point-per minute player, which would equate to 25 DK points if he plays the 25 minutes that we anticipate. That would be huge for a player in the $3,500-range, making him a candidate to reach 7X value pretty easily.
Donovan Mitchell FD - $8000 DK - $7100
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 41.67 DK - 42.91
The Conley injury raises Mudiay from a nobody to a fantasy-relevant player while it turns Mitchell from an All-Star into a superstar. In fact, Mitchell has a 32 percent usage rate with Conley off the floor, averaging close to a shot per minute. That's truly ridiculous and it's scary to think that a guy with 25 shots will be handling the ball on every possession too. DM's floor is incredible as well, scoring at least 26 DK points in all 21 games played this season. That's a 4X floor at $7,100 and we truly believe that he could reach 50-60 fantasy points in a spot like this.
Deandre Bembry FD - $4700 DK - $5000
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 29.07 DK - 28.34
Bembry has been starting for the Hawks recently and he should continue to see big minutes with John Collins, DeAndre Hunter, Cam Reddish and Kevin Huerter all potentially missing this game. That opens up a ton of minutes and usage for an already talented player, with Bembry scoring at least 30 DK points in four of his last seven games while averaging 26,5 fantasy points per game in that span. That's huge from such a cheap player, especially against a Nets team who allows the third-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season.
Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $12400 DK - $11800
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 64.45 DK - 66.21
Anytime Giannis is on the schedule, you have to keep him in consideration. The blowout nature of his two most recent wins hasn't even slowed him down, with Antetokounmpo averaging 47 DraftKings points across just 21 minutes a game. That's truly absurd and it's scary to think how good he'll be if he plays the 30-35 minutes we expect. The season-long numbers speak for themselves, with Giannis averaging 62.2 fantasy points per game in 31.5 minutes. Don't fade that sort of production.
Jae Crowder FD - $5100 DK - $5000
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 26.69 DK - 27.51
Solomon Hill FD - $4500 DK - $4700
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 23.4 DK - 23.83
The Grizzlies could be without guys like Ja Morant, Brandon Clarke, Kyle Anderson and Jonas Valanciunas here, opening up a ton of minutes for everyone else. That was definitely the case on Monday when Hill got the start and provided 39.5 DK points across 33 minutes of action. While Crowder wasn't quite as productive, he actually averaged 26.3 DK points across 32 minutes in his previous eight games. That came with many of these guys suited up, as both of these players are good bets to play 30-plus minutes. That's all we can hope for against a bad Bulls team who owns a 19th OPRK against opposing small forwards this season.
Anthony Davis FD - $10800 DK - $9400
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 58.28 DK - 57.59
We've had a ton of value plays in this article but Davis, Doncic and Antetokounmpo are surely the best plays on the board. The form from Davis is truly fantastic, scoring at least 42.5 DK points in eight-straight games while averaging 56 fantasy points per game in that span. Getting production like that from a player below $10,000 is simply amazing and it's hard to understand why DraftKings is keeping his price so low. Despite Utah being a tough defense, Davis still dropped 45 fantasy points in their last game despite barely cracking 40 percent shooting.
Dario Saric FD - $6100 DK - $6200
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 29.82 DK - 30.7
Frank Kaminsky FD - $4300 DK - $5500
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 25.95 DK - 27.01
With DeAndre Ayton suspended and Aron Baynes injured, these two should be in for a big workload. That was evident on Monday when Saric scored 35.5 DK points in 32 minutes of action while Kaminsky provided 29 fantasy points across 33 minutes of play. That extends a rather impressive stretch from Saric, averaging 37.4 DraftKings points over his previous four fixtures. The simple fact is, both of these guys are going to continue to see big minutes, which should lead to plenty of rebounds and shot attempts against an Orlando frontcourt missing their best player.
Karl-Anthony Towns FD - $10600 DK - $10600
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 54.49 DK - 57.74
There are a ton of value plays in this article, so let's get a couple of studs at center. Towns is just that, averaging 54.2 DK points per game for the year. That's the best total at the center position and the third-best average only behind Giannis and Doncic. That shows just how good KAT has been this season and it's strange no one is really talking about it. The reason we like him today is because he faces a Dallas team with no good centers. That was clear last season when Towns averaged 29.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 2.7 blocks in three games against them while shooting a robust 64 percent from the field.
Rudy Gobert FD - $7800 DK - $7500
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 40.17 DK - 40.33
Gobert got off to a slow start this season but recent results tell us that he's starting to hit his stride. Despite getting blown out the last two games. Gobert is still averaging 44.5 DraftKings points over his last 10 games. That's huge from a player who's seen a recent price drop and it's hard to understand how he's not above $8,000 on both sites with his recent form. While Los Angeles surely has an elite defense, Gobert should be guaranteed to play 30-35 minutes opposing bigs like Davis, JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard.
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