Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 12/11/19
This is one of the largest slates in recent memory, with the NBA treating us with an 11-game schedule. That's all we can ask for in terms of DFS, as there are a ton of great picks out there. That's why we'll offer up the two-best plays on the board and mix in a bunch of value plays around them. With that in mind, let's get into it!
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Dinwiddie has been an absolute monster since Kyrie Irving went down. It's not just Irving though, as Caris LeVert's absence has only added to Dinwiddie's value. That's really evident when you see that he has a 33 percent usage rate with those two off the floor while averaging 1.3 DK points per minute. That has led to him scoring at least 35 DK points in all 12 starts he's made for Irving while averaging 40 fantasy points per game. That's especially intriguing against a Hornets club who sits 27th in defensive efficiency.
It's really hard to figure out why these DFS sites are keeping Lowry's price so affordable. The biggest reason we like him is his workload, ranking second in the NBA with over 37 minutes player per night. That absurd playing time has led to him averaging 39.7 DK points per game which is truly a ridiculous total from a player barely cracking $7,000. While Los Angeles is certainly a tough matchup, this should remain a competitive game between two tough teams, guaranteeing Lowry for another 35-40 minutes.
D'Angelo Russell is dominating the usage in Golden State, making him a great option against the Knicks.
Harden is always a good pick and it's going to be tough to fade him in a spot like this. We're talking about the league leader with 62.1 DK points per game averaging close to 70 fantasy points since a subpar start to the year. That's why this price is so monstrous but it's worth every penny with a 60-point floor. We absolutely love the matchup against Cleveland too, with the Cavs owning a 24th OPRK against opposing shooting guards while sitting 29th in defensive rating. Blowout risk is the only worrisome factor but a 60-point game in three quarters against the Hawks tells us that we shouldn't worry too much.
Donovan Mitchell FD - $8100 DK - $7400
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 42.84 DK - 44.23
With Mike Conley missing another game here, we definitely want some exposure to Mitchell. The reason for that is because he has a 33 percent usage rate with him off the floor. While he's yet to have a huge game without him, it's hard to overlook the fact that he has at least 26 fantasy points in all 24 games this season en route to a 38-point average. The icing on the cake is this matchup, with Minnesota surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season.
Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $12000 DK - $11000
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 62.51 DK - 64.85
One question you're going to have to ask yourself is if you want Harden or Giannis? It's honestly really tough to pick between the two, so, we'll just present the stats and you can choose. The numbers from this kid are simply majestic, averaging 61.4 DK points per game in barely 31 minutes of play. That means his blowout risk is limited with that upside, making him a really attractive pick against the Pelicans. Not only does New Orleans sit 28th in defensive efficiency and 29th in points allowed, both of these clubs also rank Top-5 in pace. That means if this game stays close, Giannis could be flirting with 80-point upside in what's expected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the night.
Kenrich Williams FD - $4000 DK - $3700
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 23.79 DK - 23.3
This is definitely a punt play but Williams has shown some flashes of brilliance this season. Where that was really evident was when he averaged 24.6 DK points across 32.3 minutes in a 10-game span before moving to the bench. That move really didn't make any sense and they actually started him in the most recent game. That makes him a super risky pick but it's hard to overlook that 25-point potential at this sort of price tag. While Milwaukee is a tough defense, the fact that they play at the fastest pace in the league only adds to Williams' intrigue.
PJ Washington FD - $6000 DK - $5800
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 30.73 DK - 30.43
Washington has been inconsistent in his rookie campaign but he has some serious upside in a matchup like this. Let's start with that opponent, facing a Brooklyn club who sits 19th in total defense. The thing we really like about Washington is his role right now, playing at least 33 minutes in six of his last seven games. That has led to him averaging nearly 30 DK points per game in that span which is all you can ask for from a player in the $6,000-range. Marvin Williams sitting out is big too, guaranteeing Washington 30 minutes.
Daniel Theis FD - $4300 DK - $4200
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 23.39 DK - 22.08
Theis has quietly been one of the most valuable players for Boston this season and it's weird that his price remains so low. Since gaining that starting role, Theis is averaging 23 DK points across 22.2 minutes per game. That includes a game where he got injured and two duds against the New York teams, as he could be closer to a 30-point average if it weren't for those outliers. Facing Indiana isn't half bad either, as their big frontcourt should guarantee Theis 20-25 minutes while ranking 24th in OPRK against opposing power forwards.
Rudy Gobert FD - $8000 DK - $7700
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 40.57 DK - 40.78
Gobert got off to a slow start this season but recent results are a different story. Over his last 19 games, Gobert is averaging 15.6 points, 14.2 rebounds and 1.9 blocks en route to 41 fantasy points per game. That's the guy we've been waiting for and it makes it strange to see his price hover in the $8,000-range. Getting to face Karl-Anthony Towns and is horrible defense only adds to Gobert's value, with Minnesota ranked 20th in defensive efficiency, Top-5 in pace and 28th in points allowed.
Jahlil Okafor FD - $4100 DK - $3800
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 24.27 DK - 23.83
This is one of the riskiest recommendations we have but Okafor could be a per-dollar stud if he just plays 20-25 minutes. In his first five starts this season, the former Duke center averaged 24.6 DK points in 22 minutes of action. In a start on Monday, Okafor collected 20 fantasy points in 22 minutes. That means he's a fantasy point-per minute producer and that's really all we can hope for from a player in the minimum price range. It's all about minutes and if you could stumble into 20 or 25 with Okafor, you could be looking at 7X value with his impressive rates. If Derrick favors returns here though, forget about Okafor.