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featured Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

12/17/2019
James Davis

Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 16

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Quarterbacks

Lamar JacksonLamar Jackson FD 9300 DK 8000
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 25.6 DK - 25.02

In Week 15, Lamar Jackson broke Michael Vick’s record for most quarterback rushing yards in a season, and he’s now going to give himself a two-week buffer on that number. He’s expensive for sure, but with Baltimore still very much fighting for home field advantage in the AFC and likely wanting to stomp a division rival in the Browns, Jackson has an incredibly high floor in this game. From a safety perspective, no player has been more consistent on a week-to-week basis than Jackson, leading the league in FanDuel per game scoring with the lowest coefficient of variation (.23) by a considerable margin. Seeing as how he kills teams both through the air and on the ground, the floor is so high on his production. Sure, Browns represent one of the two Ravens’ losses this season, but since Week 4 these teams have gone in decidedly different directions. Jackson still managed 3 passing touchdowns and 66 yards on the ground in that game and this week are 10-point road favorites. Don’t let that early season loss cloud your judgment here, Jackson is the safest play at the position once again and we are only arguing about price at this point.


Russell WilsonRussell Wilson FD 8300 DK 7000
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 21.69 DK - 22.53

Dak PrescottDak Prescott FD 8000 DK 6400
Opponent PHI
Proj Points FD - 21.13 DK - 22.18

These guys are in the next tier down and possibly where we end up going in cash games simply because of the saving from Jackson. I suspect from an optics perspective more folks would prefer Wilson in this matchup against the Cardinals. Arizona allows the most opponent plays from scrimmage this season (67.5/game) and have been terrible against the pass, ranking 29th in DVOA. After a couple of down weeks, Wilson was solid against the Panthers, throwing for 286 yards and two touchdowns on just 26 attempts while not even getting out in the running game at all (-1 yard). I’m a little worried about potential volume problems here even with the matchup because there are many scenarios in which he once again attempts fewer than 30 passes in a game that could get out of hand.


Prescott meanwhile was on his way to crushing value in Week 15 against the Rams until the blowout got in the way. He was 15/23 for 212 yards and two touchdowns but the Cowboys took their foot completely off the gas in the second half with the game all but wrapped up. This week is about as big a leverage game as you’ll find with Dallas and Philly locked into a grudge match for the NFC East. From a point differential standpoint, Dallas is significantly better and Prescott has been among the top fantasy quarterbacks this season ranking third in FanDuel points per game with the second-best consistency rating after Jackson. I think he will have lower ownership, but it is in another good against and Eagles’ team ranked worse than league average against the pass.


Andy DaltonAndy Dalton FD 7100 DK 5200
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 17.6 DK - 19.13

The key piece of Andy Dalton’s cash game case this week is that he gets to play against the Dolphins. It’s almost that simple. These are the DraftKings’ points given up to opposing quarterbacks by the Dolphins over the last four weeks:


Eli Manning - 16.32

Sam Darnold - 18.1

Carson Wentz - 28.4

Baker Mayfield - 27.5


That’s not exactly a murderer’s row and believe me I could keep going back on this list. Miami is easily the worst defense in the league against the pass and it isn’t even close. Dalton’s DraftKings price is palatable and allows for flexibility elsewhere. I think he sees ownership there because of the matchup.


Running Backs

Saquon BarkleySaquon Barkley FD 8800 DK 8300
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 19.84 DK - 21.82

Saquon was a chalk option in cash games last week against Miami, and he delivered in a big way, racking up 143 yards and two touchdowns against Miami's porous run defense. This week's match-up isn't quite as cushy as last week's, because really, nothing is, but it's still totally fine. The Redskins are the 18th ranked defense against the run this year, and just allowed a huge week to Miles Sanders. With Barkley the concern has never really been about the talent - it's been about his health and opportunity. If last week was any indication he's firing on all cylinders in both regards, and should we ready to double down on last week's performance this week.


Joe MixonJoe Mixon FD 7800 DK 6600
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 16.29 DK - 18.13

I find Mixon's opportunity with the Bengals mostly hilarious, as Joltin' Joe has the 9th most carries of any running back this season in spite of his team getting destroyed every single week. He has touched the ball 55 times for 342 yards in the last two weeks in games where his team lost by a combined 31 points. This week he'll get by far his best match-up of the season in the Dolphins, who rank dead last in defensive DVOA against the rush this season. With the Bengals just 1 point dogs on the road in Miami this could be the week that DFS players wake up and run Mixon out there in all formats.


Ezekiel ElliottEzekiel Elliott FD 8700 DK 7900
Opponent PHI
Proj Points FD - 20.16 DK - 22.13

Miles SandersMiles Sanders FD 7400 DK 6400
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 18.32 DK - 20.63

It's the game of the week, even if it mysteriously didn't get flexed to the Sunday night game. Zeke and Sanders are coming off of similar weeks. Sanders had a career week against the Redskins when the Eagles needed him most, popping off for 172 total yards and two touchdowns on 25 total touches. Elliott brained the Rams for 160 total yards and two touchdowns on 28 total touches.


So are both rock solid cash game plays this week? Probably, but it's not quite so simple. While Elliott was excellent the last two times these teams met, Sanders did hardly anything at all. While Sanders' opportunity has rounded into shape a lot more favorably as the season has progressed, I don't think he's exactly a sure thing here. Both of these guys have roughly league average match-ups. I think both are in an intriguing price range, but can see the case for fading either as well.


Also consider: Devonta Freeman. He didn't touch the ball a ton against San Francisco, but he was out there for every single snap and has a much softer match-up this week against Jacksonville and their bottom five run defense.


 

Wide Receivers

Michael ThomasMichael Thomas FD 9000 DK 9300
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 23.99 DK - 29.44

After hauling in 12 catches on Monday night against the Colts, Thomas now sits 10 off the pace to break Marvin Harrison’s single season receptions record of 143. Short of an injury, he feels like a lock to break the record and the way dude’s been rolling he might even give himself a week buffer. Thomas’s 159 targets are 18 more than the next closest wide receiver (DeAndre Hopkins) and he’s firmly planted himself as the premier wideout in the game, in a tier of his own. With home field advantage throughout the playoffs, plus the record looming, this is a smash spot for Thomas even on the road against the Titans. I’m not typically a narrative guy, but that plus just the raw stats which are bordering on historic make Thomas a near lock for cash games this week.


A.J. BrownA.J. Brown FD 7200 DK 7000
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 17.96 DK - 20.51

In what could turn into a shootout against the Saints, Brown is looking like a solid WR1 option who is only priced in the upper-middle tier. He’s coming off a peak target game in Week 15 with 13 and finished with an 8/114/1 line. Firmly planted now as main option in the Tennessee passing game, Brown’s floor is higher than I would have projected for previous weeks simply because I don’t think Tennessee will be able to rely on the run as much in this one. We saw this in Week 15 when Tannehill attempted his second-most passes of the season with 36. The game has a monster 51.5 total and this just about a must-win game for the Titans. Except heavy ownership on Brown coming off a chalk Week 15.


D.J. MooreD.J. Moore FD 6600 DK 6900
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 16.41 DK - 19.34

As the founding members of the D.J. Moore cash game fan club, I do have to admit that I took the week off last time around. But dude still garnered the targets with 12, finishing with a 8/113 line. Look, I understand that not all opportunity is created equally and when Kyle Allen is chucking you the ball it’s a little different than actual good quarterbacks heaving it your direction. But there’s no doubting the volume at this point. He’s fourth in the league in targets on the season with 133 and ranks in the top 20 in red zone looks. He’ll face an Indy defense that just got picked apart by Drew Brees and I do think the Panthers at least haven’t completely packed it in from an effort standpoint (even if the results are iffy). This is a fine cash price for Moore in Week 16.


Other Thoughts If D.J. Chark were to sit out again, I think Chris Conley would be a speculative play on DraftKings again. I say that because while he did catch the two touchdowns in Week 15, his performance outside of those two balls was pretty bad.


Greg Ward also remains cheap on DraftKings at $4200 following a nine-target Week with the Eagles still in a dire mess around their WRs.


 

Tight Ends

Zach ErtzZach Ertz FD 6900 DK 6400
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 15.44 DK - 19.22

With Higbee off the main slate this week, Ertz will be a highly owned tight end once again. With double digit targets in five of his last six weeks, Ertz has defined safety at the position in the second half of the season, with his only bad game being that bizarre loss to Miami. In the games where the Eagles had their wits about him they prioritized Ertz he was the main target of this banged up passing game, and with the season on the line against the Cowboys you have to imagine that will be the case here as well.


Darren WallerDarren Waller FD 6500 DK 6100
Opponent LAC
Proj Points FD - 16.07 DK - 19.02

Waller had more than three times the targets of any other Raiders ball-catcher last week, and turned his 10 looks into 8 catches for 122 yards. That's excellent production for a guy in the low to mid $6,000s at any position, and at a terrible tight end position it's even better. I think it's pretty close between him and Ertz here, but the savings might ultimately be the deciding factor for some.


Also considered: Mike Gesicki, if you just find yourself out of money. I'd really rather not for cash games though.


Defense / Special Teams

RedskinsRedskins FD 3800 DK 2800
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 7.34 DK - 7.34

Another week, another writeup for your Washington Redskins and their defense. The price has finally come up a bit on the 'Skins, and while we didn't run them against the Eagles last week, we enjoyed their performances in each of the prior three weeks. The Redskins rank in the top 10 in sacks, interceptions, and forced fumbles, and going up against the corpse of Eli Manning should only help matters. Barkley should eat here, but ultimately the big-play ability of the Redskins defense puts them in play against a turnover prone QB like Eli.


JetsJets FD 3600 DK 3000
Opponent PIT
Proj Points FD - 6.46 DK - 6.46

Hats off to Tomlin and the Steelers' coaching staff this season, as it's truly a miracle how much they've accomplished with these quarterbacks. Devlin Hodges may or may not get the start here, but whether it's him or Mason Rudolph I don't think there is a lot of cause for concern. The Steelers didn't even turn to James Conner much last week, and getting 30+ cracks at sacking/intercepting Hodges or Rudolph should be enough to get you home on these affordable prices.

SaintsSaints FD 3800 DK 2700
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 7.52 DK - 7.52

After bottling up the Colts entirely, the Saints are looking awfully cheap on DraftKings this week. The Titans have been much better offensively with Ryan Tannehill under center, but he looked awfully human against the Texans last week. Tannehill also benefited from a super easy schedule during his starts as well, and going up against the Saints and their 7th ranked defense should be a much stiffer challenge here.


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