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Daily Fantasy Football Game by Game Breakdowns for FanDuel and DraftKings Divisional Round - SundayWe are covering NFL DraftKings and FanDuel plays for Sunday's Divisional Round. It's a stacked schedule of some potent offenses and plenty of intrigue.
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Houston Texans (10) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-10)This game started with the Chiefs at -8 home favorites, but that’s up to -10 now in what could be a blowout on Sunday. The 51 over/under is easily the highest of the weekend and it’s easy to see why. The Texans rank as the lowest DVOA defense still alive while the Chiefs were the third-overall offense and that was even with Mahomes missing a few weeks.
Houston TexansIt’s tough love much on the Texans’ side this weekend, especially from a cash game perspective. I suppose some will make a case for Carlos Hyde considering the Chiefs are something of a funnel defense and ranked 29th in DVOA against the run. But Hyde is pretty one-dimensional in that he’s a complete non-factor in the passing game and won’t touch the ball much if the Texans get down early.
With Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson on the Sunday slate I don’t think you need to jam in Deshaun Watson especially considering the Chiefs ranked 6th in DVOA against the pass.
DeAndre Hopkins FD 8100 DK 7400
Proj Points FD - 18.28 DK - 22.31
Will Fuller FD 5600 DK 5000
Proj Points FD - 10.42 DK - 12.67
There isn’t a ton to love at wide receiver for Sunday making Hopkins and/or Fuller interesting plays here. The latter sat out the Wild Card round with an injury and is questionable for Sunday’s game as well. With Fuller out, Hopkins has traditionally seen a much bigger target share though the Bills really worked to shut him down last week and make Watson work it to much inferior options.
That being said, if Fuller does play and is 100% healthy then he’s actually not a bad cash game option considering the price. It’s makes the Texans’ passing game more lethal and I think he’d see enough opportunity to justify both the DraftKings and FanDuel salaries.
If Jordan Akins sits again, then Darren Fells makes for an interesting DK punt option at tight end.
Kansas City ChiefsPatrick Mahomes FD 8600 DK 7500
Proj Points FD - 23.72 DK - 24.72
For Sunday’s games, Mahomes is easily the highest-projected quarterback and will be a tough fade on FanDuel if you choose to go that direction. You can probably get away with it on the Sunday slate with guys like Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers all viable here. But if there was a quarterback on this slate who could throw at crazy volume and demolish his price, Mahomes is the one. If anything, the up-and-down nature of his season has the price relatively in check. The touchdowns regressed in 2019, which was to be somewhat expected and he dealt with a couple of injuries as well. But the 66% completion percentage is in line with last season and if you take out the Denver game where he left early, this is a guy averaging 300 yards passing and two touchdowns per game. He also ran more over the last six weeks of the season and threw for only five interceptions this year.
Damien Williams FD 6900 DK 6000
Proj Points FD - 15.08 DK - 16.89
Over the last two weeks of the regular season, after coming back from injury, Williams touched the ball 19 times in each, operating essentially as the feature back in the Kansas City offense. The 84-yard touchdown run for sure helped in Week 17, but the usage appears locked in for the Chiefs. At these prices, on a shorter slate he makes a fairly easy play on both sites, but especially DraftKings considering in his non-injured games he averaged almost four targets per game. With the Chiefs massive home favorites, it makes some sense to think they’ll lean a bit more on the run later in the game and Williams would have a hand in that.
Travis Kelce FD 7500 DK 6400
Proj Points FD - 17.08 DK - 20.81
Kelce ranked behind only George Kittle in DraftKings points-per-game scoring at tight end this season and both were well ahead of anyone else on the list (over the course of the whole season). And this was even more remarkable considering Mahomes only played “full” in 13 of those games. Kelce ranked 11th overall in targets (136). Passing-catching tight ends beat up on the Texans this season with some examples being:
Week 15 Jonnu Smith - 16.7 DK points
Week 14 Noah Fant - 24.1 DK points
Week 12 Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle combined 13.2 DK points
Week 11 Mark Andrews 17.5 DK points
Cherry-picked performances? Sure. But as stated this is a Houston team that struggles against the pass. Kelce is the pretty clear cash-game option on this slate and definitely worth paying up for.
Strongly consider Tyreek Hill in cash and definitely in the GPPs. I’m more interested in him for the latter considering the target share isn’t overwhelming for the price.
Seattle Seahawks (4) vs. Green Bay Packers (-4)It was harder than it should have probably been for the Seahawks to advance this far considering they faced an Eagles’ team playing with all backups in the Wildcard round. But they scraped through and will now go on the road to Green Bay. The Packers got themselves a bye in Week 17 against the Lions, but in much the same respect it wasn’t exactly easy.
Seattle SeahawksRussell Wilson FD 7900 DK 6600
Proj Points FD - 22.64 DK - 23.26
He wasn’t efficient against the Eagles, completing only 18-30 but did finish with 325 yards and a touchdown. He also scampered for 45 rushing yards, his third-highest total of the season on the ground. The Seahawks will need everything and more from Wilson if they want to advance through this round. They have almost no running game, but dude’s been able to pull out “miracles” before and I do suspect something of a higher volume passing attack in this matchup. That being said, the Packers have been significantly better against the pass this season, ranking 10th in DVOA.
D.K. Metcalf FD 7000 DK 6800
Proj Points FD - 13.66 DK - 16.33
From Week 10 on (including the Wild Card game) Metcalf leads the Seahawks in targets with 56 (Lockett - 46) and over the last two weeks combined for 13 catches, 241 yards and two touchdowns. He’s clearly Wilson’s number one option right now and should see solid target share in the Divisional round.
I do think you can consider Travis Homer this week. Yes, he was terrible against the Eagles touching the ball 12 times for 13 total yards. Yikes. But I do think the plan is to give him the ball something like 14-15 times per game and he’s even more intriguing if the Seahawks get down early. He’s the pass-catching back between him and Lynch.
Green Bay PackersDaVante Adams FD 8400 DK 7800
Proj Points FD - 21.39 DK - 25.89
Since coming back from injury in Week 12, Adams’ 70 targets were second to only Michael Thomas (72) in that stretch. He was tied for the league-lead in touchdown receptions during that span though barely top-ten in yards. The conversion percentage left something to be desired (63%) with Rodgers essentially forcing him the ball come hell or high-water. That being said, he’s a clear cash target this week and probably the “safest” receiver of the weekend. It’s likely the Packers continue moving Adams around though look for more of an impetus to get him matched up with Tre Flowers, the lowest-rated cornerback in Seattle’s secondary.
Aaron Jones FD 8200 DK 7400
Proj Points FD - 18.29 DK - 19.44
Ok, it sure seems like Aaron Jones in this playoff game considering he’s coming off 26 and 31 touch weeks in 16 and 17, combining for 303 total yards and touchdowns. So, on the surface, Jones would seem like a no-brainer cash game play as a home favorite against the 26th-ranked rushing defense. But then there’s the Jamaal Williams thing. Williams will return this week and Packers have shown a willingness to use both guys in the rushing attack. Compare Jones to someone like Dalvin Cook and I think the latter has more safety in that you know he’s going to be on the field the whole time. I still like Jones for Sunday considering the lack of other options but for his price there is some downside if the Packers do anything close to splitting carries.
I don’t mind Allen Lazard who’s emerged has a solid secondary receiver in this offense, garnering 17 total targets over the final two weeks of the season. He’s coming reasonably-priced on DraftKings at $4500 and $5400 on FanDuel.
Meanwhile, Jimmy Graham saw a few more targets over the last two weeks, but is really only a cheap alternative if you don’t go with the big boys in Kelce and Kittle.