Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 1/12/20Sunday in the Association gives us a two-game afternoon slate and then an early start on the evening main slate. Let’s take a look at some cash NBA plays for FanDuel and DraftKings.
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Point GuardTrae Young FD - $10200 DK - $10300
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 50.65 DK - 54.03
These teams played back on December 21st and Trae casually dropped 47 points, eight rebounds and six assists in the 122-112 loss. Atlanta is used to losing, that isn’t anything new, but Young gets his run and shots up almost regardless. Over his last five games, since returning from the ankle injury he’s averaging 37 minutes per game with 32 points and nine assists on more than 21 shot per game. The usage and volume are among the highest in the league and there’s a lot of safety in that especially against a team like the Nets who are likely to pick up the pace with Kyrie Irving reentering the mix. There are plenty of cheaper options on this short Sunday slate so paying up for Young here isn’t going to be too cost prohibitive.
JA Morant FD - $7500 DK - $7400
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 36.67 DK - 37.81
This has already been a fairly crazy NBA season and now we get a Memphis team who, after a win over the Spurs on Friday, are the freaking eighth seed in the West. You read that correctly, if the playoffs started today the Grizzlies would be in the playoffs. It’s nuts. But because of the recent run, they’ve let the leash off of Morant and he’s 31 or more minutes in three of the last five games. In the last two he’s averaged 19 shots, scoring 23 points, dishing out 10 assists and putting in five rebounds. I think we continue to see Memphis just give this thing a go considering the state of the West and that should mean a consistently high floor for Morant.
Shooting GuardLou Williams FD - $6400 DK - $6500
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 33.93 DK - 35.41
Paul George will continue missing time, leaving plenty of shots to go around for the Clippers’ offense. Williams sees minutes increases off the bench whenever the Clips have been without one of their stars and that should again be the case on Sunday against the Nuggets. It’s not an ideal matchup by any means against a Denver team that plays the second-slowest pace in the league this season. LouWill has a full-season 28.9% usage rate, but that jumps to 31.5% when PG is off the court, with the assists and rebounds getting bumps as well. The price hasn’t moved enough to account for no George and I’m willing to run him into this plodding Nuggets team.
Kevin Huerter FD - $5400 DK - $6000
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 30.01 DK - 30.82
Huerter was in foul trouble last game, getting his minutes buzzed. But the Atlanta plan sure seems to want to play him 35+ minutes a night. Trae will control a lot of the offense, but Huerter is still getting up almost 14 shots per game in the short term and has rebounded well of late, averaging five boards per game over his last five. Shooting guard is a thinner position after Lou Williams so I don’t mind venturing into the middle tier with Huerter trusting that the minutes will be there.
Small ForwardSmall forward is problematic on the evening slate, with precious few value plays at the time of this writing. There aren’t many standouts at the position so I’ll roll through some of the options.
Kelly Oubre Jr. (FD $7000 DK $6700) is still playing big minutes and getting surprising usage for the Suns even when sharing the court with Devin Booker. The price has come up, especially on FanDuel seeing as how the Suns are fine running him minutes in the upper 30’s most nights. I think he has a solid enough floor, but you are getting close to the breaking point on his salary.
Joe Harris (FD $4900 DK $5100) and Taurean Prince (FD $5000 DK $5500) have a great matchup against the Hawks, but Kyrie Irving is back in the mix which could draw away some of the usage. Harris hasn’t been getting a ton of three-point looks which is really his bread and butter while Prince is getting them but not making any. I do think the minutes will be there for both.
Alec Burks (FD $5700 DK $5400) is coming off the bench but playing around 30 minutes per game. I don’t mind his price points.
If Pascal Siakam does indeed sit out again then I don’t mind OG Anunoby (FD $4800 DK $5400)
Power ForwardKawhi Leonard FD - $9700 DK - $9000
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 52.24 DK - 52.61
Last game, playing without Paul George against the Warriors, Kawhi went nuts finishing with 36 points, nine rebounds and five assists an absurd 25 shots from the field and eight trips to the charity stripe. His field goal attempts were more than double the next closest guy on the team (Williams). We expected a usage bump for Kawhi of course, considering his number spikes to 37.4% with PG off the court. But even this amount of shots was a little surprising. No matter, let’s run him out there again at very reasonable (read: to low) prices on both sites. I suspect he’s heavier chalk even in the tougher matchup.
Omari Spellman FD - $4400 DK - $4100
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 26.86 DK - 26.58
Spell man drew the start last game against the Clippers and put up a solid line of 17 points, five rebounds, three assists and three steals in 28 minutes. He’s long been a good fantasy point per minute guy who just lacked opportunity. But with the Warriors releasing Marquesse Chriss and moving Willie Cauley-Stein to the bench, Spellman has the opportunity now. The price hasn’t moved accordingly and he’s a great value play on both sites against a Memphis team playing the fifth-fastest pace with a 24th-ranked defensive efficiency.
Along the same lines, Draymond Green (FD $5800 DK $5100) is an excellent DraftKings play if you think he sees somewhere around 30 minutes against the Grizzlies. It’s closer on FanDuel but he would rank as a cash play there as well.
CenterMontrezl Harrell FD - $6500 DK - $6100
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 36.96 DK - 36.42
Could be looking at a Clippers stack on the evening slate for cash on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Like his teammates, Harrell stands to see more work with George out of the lineup. My only concern here, even though he played 30 minutes last time out without PG, is that the Clippers go a little bigger to front Jokic. But I still think we see plenty of run out of Harrell whose athleticism will cause problems for the Nuggets on the inside.
Deandre Ayton FD - $7800 DK - $7700
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 39.12 DK - 40.18
The Suns brought Ayton off the bench last game, choosing instead to start the Saric/Baynes combo at the four and five. They beat Orlando in that game so we could see more of the same. But it still feels weird to think of Ayton as a big-minutes bench guy so I think projecting him for at least run in the low 30’s is fine. He’s averaging a double-double in January (16 points, 11 rebounds) and adds in about 1.6 blocks per game as well. This is a good matchup against the Hornets, but I would feel a lot better knowing they were moving him back to the starting lineup.
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