Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 1/15/20
We have 10 games ahead of us here, with some great matchups on the ledger. What makes this one fascinating is the fact that we have a ton of superstars available. James Harden, Luka Doncic, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Nikola Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns all sit above $10,000 on DraftKings and we'll offer up two of those guys to build around. With that in mind, let's break it down!
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With Joel Embiid out for the next few weeks, Philly players are going to be prominent in these articles. We're talking about a guy who's averaging 23 points and 12 rebounds per game while leading the team with a 31 percent usage rate. That's a ton of usage to make-up and it has turned Simmons into one of the best fantasy producers in the NBA. Not only has he scored at least 35 DK points in 15-straight games, Simmons is also averaging 17.6 points, 8.7 rebounds, 8.5 assists and 2.2 steals per game in that stretch. That's all you can hope for, especially against a 19th-ranked Nets defense.
Satoransky's price on DraftKings is a bit surprising with his recent struggles but it's more indicative of where he should be priced at in a matchup like this. Playing against the Wizards is a treat for anyone, with Washington ranked dead-last in both points allowed and defensive efficiency. Not to mention, they own a 30th OPRK against opposing PGs according to DraftKings. We have to love that for a stat-stuffing player like Sato, with the versatile point guard averaging 27.8 DraftKings points per game across his last 14 fixtures, despite playing poor recently. Not to mention, this is a revenge game for the former Washington guard.
Malcolm Brogdon remains too cheap since his return from injury and should exploit a 25th-ranked Minnesota defense.
Harden is in the midst of a historic season and he's simply tough to fade on pretty much every slate. We're talking about a guy who's leading the NBA with 62.8 DraftKings points per game which is 4.2 fantasy points higher than the guy in second. That's really no surprise when you see that he leads the league with a 37.3 percent usage rate and 24.3 shots per game. That usage makes him tough to avoid against a 23rd-ranked Portland defense, particularly with Harden dropping 56 DK points across just 33 minutes in their one meeting earlier this season. Look for him to be motivated against a backcourt consisting of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum
Zach LaVine FD - $8300 DK - $9300
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 43.57 DK - 45.33
LaVine is easily one of the most talented players in the NBA with his athleticism and ability to score, and he's really showing that recently. Scoring at least 38 DK points in 13 of his last 14 games shows just how scary LaVine has been, averaging 44 fantasy points per game in that span. The thing we really love is that he's averaging 21.7 shots and 37 minutes played in that span while posting a 32.3 percent usage rate. Anyone performing like this with that sort of usage is in play against anyone but we absolutely adore him against the worst defense in the NBA. In his one game against Washington, LaVine collected 42.8 DK points, despite going just 6-of-23 from the field. Imagine how good he could be if he shoots 40-50 percent here.
Dennis Schroder has been one of the best sixth men in the league this season and remains too cheap for how well he's been performing.
LeBron James FD - $10800 DK - $10400
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 59.11 DK - 62.38
We like James whether Anthony Davis suits up or not but he's probably the best per-dollar play on the board if the big man sits. The thing that makes James such a good option is his floor, scoring at least 38 DraftKings points in every game this season. That's unmatched by almost everyone in the league and it makes it hard to understand why he remains below $11,000 on both sites. Being without Davis and Rajon Rondo would only add to his intrigue, with LBJ posting a 39.3 percent usage rate with those two off the floor while averaging more than 1.7 DK points per minute. Not having to face Jonathan Isaac is simply a bonus, as James should feast on the rest of these weak Orlando wings.
Tobias Harris FD - $6600 DK - $6900
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 39.15 DK - 39.99
Let's keep the Sixers riding with Harris. While the absence of Embiid helps everyone, it appears that Harris is the go-to guy in his absence. That's clear when you see that he's leading the team with a 26 percent usage rate with Embiid off the floor while taking about 20 shots per game in those 10 fixtures. That's allowed him to score at least 33 fantasy points in five-straight games and he's established a nice floor with those shot attempts and rebounding in his back pocket. All of that makes him very attractive against a team like the Nets, with Brooklyn owning a 19th OPRK against opposing small forwards this season.
T.J. Warren is a really nice value below $6,000 against a weak T'Wolves defense as well.
Al Horford FD - $6700 DK - $6700
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 38.11 DK - 37.76
Horford is the direct beneficiary to Embiid being injured, as it's forced him over to center and made him one of the focal points of this offense. In the 10 games without Embiid, Horford is averaging 38 DraftKings points per game. That even includes one dud where the Sixers were blown out and he's actually averaging over 40 fantasy points per game in the other nine competitive outings. That's what we expect to see here, with both of these clubs in playoff contention. My favorite part about using Horford might be this matchup though, with Brooklyn surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season. In the one game against Brooklyn, Horford had 36.3 fantasy points across just 27 minutes of action, doing that damage with Embiid. Imagine how good he could be without him!
Nemanja Bjelica FD - $5300 DK - $6300
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 33.07 DK - 33.69
It seems like a Kings frontcourt player gets injured every week and that's kept Bjelica fantasy relevant. It's the absence of Richaun Holmes that's really opened things up for Nemanja though, averaging 40.3 DraftKings points per game over the last three fixtures. That's a monstrous total from a player priced so cheaply and he should continue to fire up shots and grab rebounds at will in Holmes absence. It's not like he's been bad before that either, averaging 27.3 DK points per game for the year. Getting to face a Dallas team without Kristaps Porzingis isn't too shabby either, with Bjelica dropping 50.8 fantasy points in their one meeting earlier this season.
Clint Capela FD - $7800 DK - $8100
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 44.22 DK - 44.24
Capela has been way too good to be priced this cheaply. We're talking about a guy who's averaging over 40 FanDuel points per game which is why he should be about $1,000 more over there. He's actually been better than that recently, averaging 43.1 DraftKings points per game across his last 24 games played. The pace is a major reason why and Capela should continue to thrive against a bad defender like Hassan Whiteside. That's evident when you see that Portland ranks 24th in defensive efficiency and both of these clubs sitting Top-12 in pace. Don't be surprised to see CC flirt with a 20-20 game here.
Thomas Bryant FD - $4400 DK - $5400
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 24.19 DK - 24.01
This is totally risky but there's going to be a two or three-game span where Bryant is one of the best values out there. The thing that makes him worth the risk is this price tag, as Bryant was playing at a $7,000-level before his injury. In fact, TB averaged 32.7 DraftKings points per game across 28.6 minutes over his first 16 games played before getting injured. While he played just 15 minutes in his return, we could be looking at 20-25 minutes here. If he plays that at just $4,400 on FD, he should provide 30 FanDuel points at that early-season rate. Getting to face Chicago increases those odds, with the Bulls surrendering the most fantasy points in the league to opposing centers this season.
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