Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Friday, 2/7/20The trade deadline is over and there were quite a few moves that will have DFS implications going forward over the course of the season. Unfortunately, most of the teams playing on this slate were relatively unaffected. But there’s still plenty to dive into on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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Point GuardKendrick Nunn FD - $4600 DK - $4800
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 28.88 DK - 29.56
Goran Dragic FD - $5300 DK - $5300
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.18 DK - 31.92
The Heat were major players at the trade deadline, adding Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala from the Grizzlies which could poise them for a strong playoff run. But it’s unlikely those guys play on Friday and we have early news that Jimmy Butler is doubtful and Tyler Herro is out. That could mean a ton of minutes for both Nunn and Dragic in this game against the Kings. Last game, with Butler leaving early against the Clippers, Nunn led the team in shots (17) and he has a 23% usage rate with Butler off the court this season.
Meanwhile, Dragic has a 28% usage rate when Jimmy is on the bench (he hasn’t missed a game this season) and could enter the starting lineup. I suspect he and Nunn control much of the offense and they have a good matchup against a Kings team ranked 20th in defensive efficiency. Neither Dragic or Nunn are priced correctly for the inevitable minutes and opportunity bumps coming on Friday. Both should see heavy ownership.
Reggie Jackson FD - $5700 DK - $6100
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 31.54 DK - 33.13
The Pistons dumped Andre Drummond at the trade deadline for a bag of balls and not much else. Plus, Derrick Rose will sit Friday’s game out after not getting dealt at the deadline. The Pistons are a mess. But Jackson should see plenty of of run in this game, following a chalky night on Wednesday when he played 34 minutes, jacked up 24 shots and finished with a 25 point, nine assist, five rebound night against the Suns. This is a worse matchup against the Thunder for sure and there is definitely blowout risk but Jackson is still too cheap for what he’s doing in the Pistons’ offense without Rose on the court.
If Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart are both out again then Brad Wanamaker (FD $3900 DK $4600) is still a FanDuel play even coming off the bench.
Shooting GuardJames Harden FD - $11800 DK - $12100
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 60.09 DK - 62.53
Russell Westbrook hasn’t been playing both ends of back-to-backs at all this season and the Rockets are coming off a game Thursday against the Lakers. I suspect Russ sits again meaning it’s time to cue up another James Harden game. The latter has a totally bonkers 45% usage rate when Westbrook is off the court this season and also sees massive upticks in his assist and rebounding rate as well. Sure, he’s expensive now but this kind of opportunity and floor doesn’t come around all that often. It’s a fine matchup against the Suns and if Westbrook is 100% sitting then Harden could be the highest-owned play on the slate.
After Harden, things are a little trickier at shooting guard. I like the minutes floor on Kevin Huerter (FD $4600 DK $5500) but with Trae Young taking up so much of the team’s fantasy production it can be tough for the others to hit value even at max minutes.
Bruce Brown Jr. (FD $4900 DK $4900) is still interesting with Derrick Rose out and the Pistons playing somewhat shorthanded. He does have big games in him from time to time, but the fantasy production isn’t all that consistent. That being said, he could be the safest mid-tier option on the board.
There should be a few more minutes in this game for Duncan Robinson (FD $4300 DK $4300) with Butler and Herro out.
Small ForwardTim Hardaway Jr. FD - $4900 DK - $5200
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 27.73 DK - 29.62
Over the last four games, with Luka Doncic on the shelf, Hardaway has seen a fairly steady usage uptick, averaging 13.5 shots per game (seven threes) and an average of 16 points, four rebounds and three assists. But there have been peaks and valleys to each of those stats in the short term and he hasn’t put really a full game together. This is the matchup to do it. Washington is the worst defensive team in the league and this game should play at a steady clip. Because the performance has been up and down, Hardaway is still very much a bargain on both sites, but especially FanDuel.
Eric Gordon FD - $4700 DK - $5200
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 29.89 DK - 31.64 Much like Harden, Gordon sees a huge uptick in production with Westbrook off the court this season. He has a 27% usage rate which is in stark contrast to the 20% rate he has over the course of the season. Gordon is coming as a bargain on both sites, but especially FanDuel where his lower tier salary will help to fit some of the higher-priced guys on the slate. Sure, the Rockets brought in Robert Covington at the trade deadline, but he isn’t a threat to eat into much of the offensive output for this team.
If Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart are out again then Jaylen Brown (FD $6400 DK $6800) and Gordon Hayward (FD $6700 DK $7400) would both once again be strong cash game plays.
Power ForwardKristaps Porzingis FD - $9600 DK - $8800
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 44.87 DK - 46.18
Maximilian Kleber FD - $4500 DK - $4400
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 26.29 DK - 26.4
Over his last three games, with Luka Doncic on the shelf, Porzingis has been taking over the offense for this Mavericks team. He’s taken exactly 20 shots in each of the last three, averaging 35 point and 12 rebounds (exactly 12 rebounds in each game) and getting some defensive stats in there as well. The price is up, but he’s still very much a value on DraftKings and in close games I think the true minutes are around 36. That gives him a fantastic floor against a perfect matchup in the Wizards.
Meanwhile, with Dwight Powell out for the season Kleber has played 30 or more minutes in each of the last three games and averaged 11 points and seven rebounds. The price is still on the lower end because he hasn’t put a full stat line together in that stretch, but that’s fine for our purposes. As long as he’s in the starting lineup again I think he makes for a relatively easy call especially on FanDuel where the power forward position is often so tough.
The price has really skyrocketed, but if Christian Wood (FD $7300 DK $6000) is going to start at center for Andre Drummond then he’s probably just a play at least on DraftKings.
Serge Ibaka (FD $6200 DK $6300) is still coming at solid mid-tier value and considering the Pacers’ size he should see plenty of minutes in this game. The plan seems to be playing him around 33-34 minutes and last game, against these very same Pacers, Ibaka dropped 30 points on 21 shots along with seven rebounds.
CenterEnes Kanter FD - $4700 DK - $4400
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 25.86 DK - 25.53
Daniel Theis remains out and the Celtics are still lacking in quality bigs at the five. Kanter got the start on Wednesday against the Magic and played 26 minutes. The stat line was underwhelming with just seven points and eight rebounds, but I think that’s the very basement of expectation for him if he’s going to see this kind of run. It’s a significantly better matchup against the Hawks who play the third-worst defense in the league and run the third-fastest pace. Kanter is looking like a very strong play on DraftKings.
Rudy Gobert FD - $7900 DK - $7700
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 40.85 DK - 41.07
In closer games the Jazz really want to play Gobert around 37 minutes and that could be the case on Friday against the Blazers. With that kind of run he’s a double-double waiting to happen and has really big upside if the defensive stats start pouring in. He’s averaging more than two blocks per game to go with 18 points and 15 rebounds per game over the last month or so. He’s a great DraftKings play because of the double-double bonus and the defensive stats give him tremendous upside on FanDuel.
If he gets the start for Andre Drummond, Thon Maker (FD $4200 DK $3000) would be worth a look at the stone minimum on DraftKings.
His fantasy production isn’t all that robust, but at 30 minutes a game Steven Adams (FD $4800 DK $5100) is looking moderately interesting against the undersized Pistons.
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