Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – WGC Mexico Championship
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. Want more? He also provides a cheatsheet with stats, course history, current form, player write-ups for cash and GPP, a customizable model, and much more.
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It wasn't exactly the finish I had hoped for at the Genesis Invitational but it was awesome to see Adam Scott grab his first PGA Tour win since 2016 as he edged out Sung Kang, Matt Kuchar, and Scott Brown by one stroke.
This week is one of four weeks this season with multiple tournaments going on so buckle up and get ready for tons of golf action. In this article, I will be concentrating on the WGC Mexico Championship which has, by far, the best contests this week. That is largely due to the elite field which shows up for the WGC events and this one gives us seven of the Top 10 and 20 of the Top 25 golfers in World(via OWGR).
This WGC event has been played in Mexico at the Club de Golf Chapultepec since 2017 so we are starting to get a nice sample size of course history and that narrative is most definitely led by the top players in the field as Rory, DJ, and JT have yet to finish outside the Top 10 in eight combined appearances. The par 71 course is listed at 7,330 yards on the scorecard but playing at almost 7,500 feet of elevation has it playing more like 6,500 yards. This shows in the average driving distance as only six players last year averaged under 300 yard for the tournament. Running the stats over the three years, I have also noticed Strokes Gained: Approach to be a little more correlated than Off the Tee and Par 4 Scoring almost double as important as par 5 scoring. This would be due to a couple of things including there only being three par 5's and around 56% of all birdies coming on the Par 4's. There are also six of the 11 par 4's that are under 410 yards so that will be a key distance when breaking down par 4 scoring and combined with Proximity stats from the mid-iron ranges. The other thing to keep in mind here is that we have the same Kikuya rough/fairway mix and Poa greens as we saw last week so I will be looking at players trending on Poa greens and who played well last week.
With that, let's dig into this weeks picks.
Club de Golf Chapultepec
Par 71 - 7,330 Yards
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
- Dustin Johnson(-21)
- Phil Mickelson(-16)
- Dustin Johnson(-14)
Top Stats in the Model
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Par 4 Scoring w/ emphasis on 350-400 range
- Birdie or Better %
- Good Drive %/Rough Proximity
When breaking down the top stats I use a combination of my own cheatsheet and the tools over at FantasyNational.com.
Top Tier Targets
I made the claim in my article last week that DJ was going to win in one of the next two events and seeing as he missed out last, I better lead off with him here. It is not like he was terrible last week as he picked up a Top 10 finish but ended up with two one-over-par rounds to bookend the event. The good news is that he shook some rust off in the approach game(gained 2.6 strokes overall) and also led the field with three eagles and finish 9th overall in DraftKings scoring. He now returns to an event he has won twice in three years with a T7 sandwiched in the middle. It is very close for me between Rory and DJ but I slightly lean Johnson as he comes with a $500 discount on DraftKings. Either way, both are core plays for me this week.
Ever since the start of 2020 we have seen Xander's price slowly trend down and settle in the mid $9K range on DraftKings which firmly puts him in play for me this week. Since finishing runner-up at the Tour Championship, he has played six events(PGA Tour) coming into this week with five Top 25 finishes and has gained strokes both off the tee and on approach together in all five of those. Looking at my short-term stats model(via FNGC), he ranks 4th in SG: Tee to Green(5th OTT, 8th APP, 17th ATG), 9th in Birdie or Better %, 7th in Par 4 scoring overall and in the 350-400 yard range. I will have exposure to Xander in all formats.
Mid Tier Targets
World Golf Ranking (#49)
Vegas Odds (35/1)
Morikawa continued his surge up the Official World Golf Rankings last week as he has now cracked the Top 50 after just 16 PGA Tour events as a pro. The reason you ask? He has not only made all 16 cuts but has a win(2019 Barracuda), five Top 10's, and nine top 25 finishes. He sits 8th in my stats model on the sheet thanks to ranks of 2nd in SG: Approach, 5th in SG: ball-striking, 7th in overall proximity, 14th in rough proximity, 23rd in bogey avoidance and 12th in birdie or better %. He has an all-around game that can translate to success at almost any course and at this price, he will be in my core in all formats.
World Golf Ranking (#14)
Vegas Odds (50/1)
Reed has been up and down lately with a T51, T6, and missed cut in his last three events but everything lines up for a big fantasy performance this week. Looking at my short-term stats model(Last 24 rounds), Reed ranks 32nd in SG: tee to green, 1st in Par 4 scoring(12th from 350-400 yards), 2nd in birdie or better %, and 22nd in SG: around the green. On top of that, he is 5th in this field in SG: Putting on Poa greens over the last 50 rounds and has gained strokes on Poa greens in 11 of his last 13 rounds. He has also gotten better each and every year at this event with finishes of T61, T37 and T14 last year. The price continues to trend down on both sites and with that, I will have exposure in all formats.
World Golf Ranking (#66)
Vegas Odds (90/1)
Macintyre is one of the Euro players who stands out this week and it mainly comes down to form. He missed the cut at the Saudi International but before that had made nine straight cuts with no finish worse than T28 in that time including a T17 at the WGC HSBC Champions. Statistically, he ranks 32nd on the Euro Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee Green but has lost strokes putting this season. If he can sink a few putts this week, I think he has upside of another WGC surprise Top 20 and has a nice floor for the price.