Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 2/26/20
There are so many injuries right now, so, capitalizing on those is going to be a major theme in this article. That's how you find value in DFS and it's only going to get worse from here on out with teams losing their grips on contention. With that in mind, let's get into our favorite plays of the day!
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Doncic is always one of the best plays on the board and it's hard to understand why he's seen such a stark decrease in price. This is a guy who was $12,000 in the final game before the break and there's no reason why his price should have dropped $2,000. We're talking about a dude who's averaging 57.2 DraftKings points per game for the season which actually matches his average over his last three fixtures. That makes the price drop all more mind-boggling and we can't overlook the fact that he faces a 24th-ranked Spurs defense too. In his two games against San Antonio this season, Doncic is averaging 64.6 fantasy points per game.
Murray has finally been seeing the role that fans have been asking for and it's led to the best stretch of his career. Over his last five fixtures, Murray is averaging 38.8 DraftKings points per game across 29 minutes of action. That's the production of a $7,500 player and it's hard to understand why he remains so affordable with LaMarcus Aldridge also out. What adds to his intrigue is this matchup, opposing Doncic's subpar defense.
DeMar DeRozan FD - $6900 DK - $7000
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 42.37 DK - 42.71
These prices made my jaw drop. One would believe that DeRozan would be about $9,000 with Aldridge missing this game but he's actually seen a major drop. What makes that even more bizarre is the fact that DD is playing his best basketball right now, averaging 41.7 DK points per game across his last 26 outings. That pairs beautifully with the absence of LA, with DeRozan posting a 34 percent usage rate with him off the floor. Not to mention, DeRozan is averaging 43.9 fantasy points per game in his two meetings with the Mavs this season.
Caris Levert FD - $6500 DK - $7500
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 36.59 DK - 37.74
LeVert has been a mainstay in this article for weeks now and it's easy to see why when looking at his usage. Over his last eight games played, LeVert is leading the team with 20 shots per game while posting a 31 percent usage rate. That has led to him averaging 40 fantasy points per game in that span which makes this FanDuel price completely laughable. The best part about using him might be this matchup though, with the Wizards sitting dead-last in both defensive efficiency and points allowed.
Tobias Harris FD - $6600 DK - $7500
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 35.06 DK - 35.87
With Simmons missing this game, Harris is now the second-most valuable weapon on this offense. That's evident when you see that Harris has a 24.2 percent usage rate with Simmons off the floor. Getting that boost in usage and shot attempts was on full display when Harris dropped 44.5 DK points on Monday against the Hawks. That's actually the fifth time he's scored at least 40 fantasy points over his last seven games and it's scary that a hot player is seeing a major boost in usage. The matchup against the Cavaliers is simply a bonus, with Cleveland sitting 29th in defensive efficiency.
Josh Jackson FD - $3500 DK - $4500
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 24.23 DK - 24.66
This Memphis frontcourt is a shell of itself right now and it's forced Jackson into the biggest role of his career. Having Jaren Jackson Jr and Brandon Clarke injured is one thing but that doesn't even take into consideration that they traded Jae Crowder and Solomon Hill. That leaves almost no forwards on the roster and it should force Jackson into at least 25 minutes of play. That increase in playing time is stellar news for a guy who's averaging 25.4 DraftKings points per game across 22 minutes of action over his last four fixtures. Not to mention, he gets to face a Houston club who plays at the second-fastest pace in the NBA.
Kyle Anderson (FD $4400 DK $5000) is also in play for Memphis' beat-up wings.
Julius Randle FD - $7600 DK - $8400
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 42.22 DK - 45.19
Randle has quietly been one of the most consistent power forwards in the NBA. Despite his team getting blown out regularly, Randle has scored at least 33 DK points in 25 of his last 26 games. That's unbelievable consistency, especially with him averaging 40 fantasy points per game in that span. The main reason we like him today is this matchup though, with Charlotte sitting 26th in defensive efficiency while owning a 28th OPRK against opposing PFs. We also like the fact that he doesn't have to battle Marcus Morris for shots and minutes anymore too.
Al Horford FD - $4800 DK - $5000
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 28.34 DK - 28.07
The recent play of Horford certainly isn't going to help endorse this pick. What does make him an intriguing option is his price though. This is a guy who was $7,000 about two months ago and his reinsertion into the starting lineup on Monday is hopefully a sign of things to come. He dropped 27 fantasy points in that outing, which actually lowered his season average to 29.6 DK points per game. That's a crazy average to see from a player sitting around $5,000 and we can't overlook the fact that he faces the second-worst defense in the NBA.
Naz Reid (FD $4700 DK $5700) has been starting for Karl-Anthony Towns and should provide solid value if he can stay out of foul trouble.
Joel Embiid FD - $10200 DK - $10500
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 56.46 DK - 58.43
Embiid might be the best play of the day. The reason for that is because he's an absolute beast with Simmons off the floor. That was certainly the case when he dropped 78 fantasy points against the Hawks on Monday. What makes it even less surprising is the fact that he has a 37 percent usage rate with him off the floor while averaging 1.7 DK points per minute. That's one of the best rates you'll see and it equates to 60 fantasy points if he plays 35 minutes. The matchup is the icing on the cake though, with Cleveland surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
Jakob Poeltl FD - $4000 DK - $3200
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 28.24 DK - 26.51
With Aldridge missing this game for the Spurs, Poeltl should step right into the starting lineup. If you look at the last four games that LA has missed, Poeltl has scored at least 23 DK points in all of them. That has led to him averaging 34.8 DraftKings points per game across 31.3 minutes of action in that span which is truly ridiculous for someone priced so cheaply. That makes him one of the best per-dollar plays on the board and we're certainly not concerned with him facing a Dallas team without a traditional center.
Gorgui Dieng (FD $4500 DK $5200) is yet another Memphis big who could be thrusted into big minutes.
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