Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Friday 2/28/20
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Dinwiddie was a chalk option FanDuel against the Wizards, and was a pretty big disappointment on a night where Caris Levert stole the spot light. While it was a discouraging result, there was some context. Dinwiddie got in some foul trouble early, and then Levert was just so red hot that the game sort of got away from him. He started picking it up in the second half, but it wound up being a little too late. The good news for us is that we can live to fight another day in a match-up with arguably the worst point guard defender in all of basketball in Trae Young. This game has the second highest total on the slate, and with a tight 2 point spread I'm looking for all these guys to get their full run here.
Trae Young is questionable as of this writing, and while is status is uncertain, one thing we can be pretty sure about is that there will be a good point guard playing coming out of Atlanta today. If Young plays he's in a fantastic position against Dinwiddie and the Nets, and if he sits? Things get even in better. Teague looked great against Orlando in his last game, and if he assumes the starting point guard duties he could be the highest owned player on the entire slate.
Also considered: Darius Garland as a sneaky punt option.
Bogdan Bogdanovic FD - $4800 DK - $5200
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 33.41 DK - 34.97
So this is mostly a play if De'Aaron Fox sits, but I'd expect the Kings to be cautious with their young star given that he just sat last night. I'm writing this before the Kings played their Thursday night game, but Bogdan has taken over a lot of the ball handling duties in Fox's absence in the past, and he was already priced to move. With a league average defense and a top 6 PACE, Memphis is a great match-up for the Kings as well. I think Bogdan has a solid floor regardless of the Fox news, and a huge ceiling if Fox sits again.
Devin Booker FD - $7500 DK - $7800
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 43.08 DK - 45.36
The sad news in Phoenix is that Kelly Oubre has a torn miniscus, and while that opens up some DFS value, it's always a bummer to see. Still, we press on, and the reality is that taking Oubre's usage out of the lineup means a lot more minutes and opportunity for other scorers. Booker looked pretty bad against the Clippers, but really, who doesn't? He also played 39 minutes, and with the Suns still technically competitive for a playoff spot in the West I think he's got to be in cash game consideration at these still reduced prices. Detroit has been bad defensively all season, and their recent trades an injuries aren't doing them any favors. I'm happy with Booker in any format tonight.
Also considered: Kevin Huerter, who has a great match-up with Brooklyn and is playing a lot of minutes right now.
Brandon Ingram FD - $7600 DK - $7500
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 45.39 DK - 46.22
Ingram's price is down from early season highs on account of his injury and Zion's emergence, but have you noticed what he's been up to since returning? His minutes have steadily ticked up, peaking in a 36 minute and 47 fantasy point performance against a tough Lakers defense in his last game. There are officially a lot of mouths to feed in New Orleans right now, but the combination of a great match-up with the Cavs and Ingram's efforts to chase a big contract leave me trusting him for cash games here.
Mikal Bridges FD - $5000 DK - $5400
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 29.81 DK - 28.25
There is no bigger beneficiary of Oubre's absence than Mikal Bridges, who was already in cash game consideration before Oubre went down. Bridges predictably soaked up a few of Oubre's minutes against the Clippers, mounting 30 fantasy points over 38 minutes of action. You don't need to be John Hollinger to understand that this is a much better match-up against the Pistons, and I'd expect that Bridges' price will start rising in short order going forward.
Also considered: Dorian Finney-Smith.
Zion Williamson FD - $8000 DK - $8000
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 42.75 DK - 43.31
It seems like we're always waiting for Zion's big breakout, but this game certainly has all the makings of it. Cleveland is rocking the worst defensive efficiency in the entire league, and I'm truly puzzled when I think about how they are going to defend a physical specimen like this. Can Kevin Love even stay on the court here? I suppose we'll find out. With 32+ minutes and 40+ fantasy points in each of his last two games, this could very well be the monster game we've all been waiting for.
Naz Reid FD - $4500 DK - $5500
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 31.45 DK - 31.68
Dario Saric FD - $3800 DK - $4800
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 26.24 DK - 27.25
In our PF2 slot we have an interesting decision between a couple of cheap, high upside options. We've seen the ceiling on Naz Reid - his 40 fantasy point domination of Boston was a thing to behold. We've also seen his floor. A low floor, that comes from his difficulty with foul trouble. I can't promise that that won't be in play against the Magic, but I still think he's a good value if he gets up to even 28 minutes. As for Saric, he might be a little safer, especially at his reduced price on FanDuel.
He wasn't terrific against the Clips, but it was about as bad a match-up as he could have hoped for, and he also shot unusually poorly in that game. And you know what? He still hit value on this FanDuel price. If Saric draws the start again it's going to be tough to talk me off him in cash games.
Bismack Biyombo FD - $4200 DK - $4200
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 25.99 DK - 25.56
Biyombo drew the start against the Knicks on Wednesday, and promptly went and did vintage punt Biyombo things, putting up 38 fantasy points in 27 minutes on the back of 5 defensive stats against the Knicks. He'll draw a much stiffer match-up in the Raptors here, but if you can really count on him for 27+ minutes he should be almost $2,000 more. Sometimes you have to take the price over the context, and I'm happy to do that here assuming he's in the starting lineup. Given that this is a 7:30 Eastern game, I'm confident that we'll know in advance.
Rudy Gobert FD - $7600 DK - $7800
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 42.72 DK - 43.2
Well, they are officially daring you to take Gobert here. This is a guy who's averaged over 40 FanDuel points a game this season, and has seen ownership on a $9k salary in the right match-up. Now we've got him at $7,600 against the team that's allowed the fifth most fantasy points a game to opposing centers. I'm not sure how happy I'd be given that he's been shooting as few as 4 shots in a game recently, but if Biyombo doesn't draw the start I might just go there.