Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday, 3/2/20
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Point GuardJA Morant FD - $6900 DK - $7200
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 38.45 DK - 39.62
The Grizzlies are still clinging to a playoff berth in the West and that is going to be an interesting race presumably until the end of the season. And Morant very much looks like he wants to put the team on his shoulders and get them there. He’s played 34 and 35 minutes in the last two games with the Grizzlies dealing with some injuries and averaged 24 points and 13 assists in that stretch. He’s getting great usage and on Monday draws the best matchup on the slate against the Hawks who have the third-worst defense in the league and play the fourth-fastest pace. I suspect Morant is a popular play on both sites.
Collin Sexton FD - $5500 DK - $6000
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 31.88 DK - 33.1
It’s tough to run a guy into the Jazz as a cash game play, but Sexton is in a good spot here even against Utah on Monday. Darius Garland has already been ruled out of the game and the Cavs have, somewhat surprisingly, been playing super tight rotations lately. We could be looking at 37+ minutes out of Sexton on Monday and with Garland off the court this season Sexton leads the team with a 28.4% usage rate. Even with the matchup, I don’t mind this play in the mid tier of salaries assuming the minutes and opportunity are there.
Shooting GuardDillon Brooks FD - $5800 DK - $5300
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 30.97 DK - 31.68
Like I mentioned with Ja Morant, this is a dream matchup for the Grizzlies on Monday and with them playing shorter rotations recently, it could be a good time to load up on them in cash games. Brooks has played 40 and 35 minutes respectively in the last two games and with 22 and 24 shots in in those games. That’s crazy-high usage and he’s averaged 24 shots per game over the last three. That’s led to 26 points per game over the last three. While he’s still a relative bargain, it is worth noting that Brooks is incredibly scoring dependent and has only eight total rebounds and four total assists in the last three games. He needs the shot to fall to hit value and that can be a nail biting approach to cash games. But he’s still very much in play.
DeMar DeRozan FD - $7500 DK - $7300
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 41.44 DK - 41.74
LaMarcus Aldridge remains out on Monday which should, in theory, lead to increased usage for DeRozan against the Pacers. The issue is that hasn’t really been the case over the last two games with DeRozan averaging only 14 shots per game against the Magic and Mavericks. But it’s also kept the price fairly stagnant and he comes into Monday as a cash game value against the Pacers. I still think there’s opportunity to be had here with DeRozan spiking to a 33.5% usage rate with Aldridge off the court this season. It hasn’t come to fruition in the short term, but that doesn’t mean we need to stay away. I see DeRozan as a value buy here.
Small ForwardGiannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11500 DK - $11400
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 66.62 DK - 69.17
The other day James Harden gave an interview to Rachel Nichols in which he said, about Giannis, “But I wish I could just run and be 7 feet and just dunk. Like that takes no skill at all (laughs).” The game after that aired Giannis went out and dropped 41 points, 20 rebounds and six assists in 35 minutes against the Hornets. I’m not sure these quotes awoke a not-really-sleeping giant, but man if there’s anyone to not give motivation to it’s Giannis. Dude was already on a soul-crushing tour this season and this could be the kind of thing that could vault him into the next stratosphere. He’s expensive of course, dude is legit just the best, but if he’s going to start just going for 70 fantasy points every night then the prices are still too low.
Rudy Gay FD - $4300 DK - $4300
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 24.44 DK - 25.04
It will be interesting to see how the Spurs take things on Monday with both Aldridge and Poeltl out of action. Last game, Drew Eubanks came in and started the second half at center, but that only led to 17 total minutes. Rudy Gay was one of the big beneficiaries, playing 30 minutes total and going for 19 points, six rebounds and four assists. With Aldridge off the court this season, Gay’s 23% usage is the second-highest on the team and he see upticks across the rest of the stat line as well. Keep an eye out for the Spurs’ starting lineup plans but even off the bench I’d consider Gay as a cash game play on this slate at a thinner small forward position.
If Luka Doncic sits out again then Tim Hardaway Jr. (FD $5700 DK $6500) and Dorian Finney-Smith (FD $4800 DK $4300) would once again make for interesting cash game considerations.
Power ForwardJohn Collins FD - $8600 DK - $8900
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 48.01 DK - 49.33
The Hawks moved John Collins out of the four and into the five over the last two games and it’s paying clear fantasy (and real-life) dividends for the young big. Over the last two games against Brooklyn and Portland respectively he’s 28 points and 12 rebounds per game, both wins. I suspect Atlanta stays the course here considering the success they’ve had with the move and Collins should see plenty of run and opportunity again on Monday against Memphis. The Grizzlies allow around league average production to opposing fives, but this is still a pace up matchup for Collins and, like I said, his role has clearly shifted in the short term with the Hawks not starting a “traditional” center.
Trey Lyles FD - $4300 DK - $4800
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 26.46 DK - 27.08
The Spurs were already without LaMarcus Aldridge last game and then they lost Jakob Poeltl very early in the game on Saturday. That left San Antonio short on big men and pressed Lyles into 40 minutes of run time against the Magic. He responded with 20 points, nine rebounds and four steals. He doesn’t have a ton of size, but neither do the Spurs at this point with both of those bigs out of the mix again on Monday. We can get pretty aggressive with Lyles’ projected minutes at this point and his price hasn’t really crept up to meet the opportunity. Expect a lot of minutes again and he could be something like the chalk play on FanDuel at least.
Strongly consider Aaron Gordon (FD $7400 DK $8300) who had been on a tear before cooling off quite a bit against the Spurs.
And if Doncic sits again then Kristaps Porzingis (FD $8900 DK $8600) vaults to near the top of the cash game list.
CenterJonas Valanciunas FD - $7200 DK - $6800
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 39.13 DK - 40.83
Much like the other Grizzlies we’ve covered already, Jonas has seen a minutes uptick over the short term when games stay relatively close. He’s played more than 30 in each of the last two while averaging a whopping 22.5 (!) rebounds per game in that stretch. He’s always been a dominant fantasy point per minute guy with the only real concern coming around how many minutes he’d actually play. That doesn’t seem to as much an issue with the Grizzlies suffering injuries to Jaren Jackson and Brandon Clarke in the short term. Jonas feels like a lock and load play against the Hawks and I suspect he’s at least DraftKings chalk.
Andre Drummond FD - $7600 DK - $8000
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 45.51 DK - 45.62
I don’t think the trade to Cleveland has left a great taste in Andre Drummond’s mouth considering he’s been barely playing. But with Tristan Thompson out last game, Drummond finally saw minutes like what he’d been playing in Detroit. In the game against the Pacers on Saturday, Drummond played 36 minutes and finished with 27 points and 13 rebounds, a line we’d gotten used to earlier in the season. This is a terrible matchup against the Jazz of course and honestly playing almost anyone else and this would be nearly a cash game lock. That being said, Drummond’s price has dropped so much since getting traded to Cleveland that I think he’s very much in play on this slate considering how thin the Cavs are with their big men.
If he sees a minutes increase then Wendell Carter Jr. (FD $3600 DK $5500) is interesting as close to punt prices on FanDuel.
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